【作者】 吴景龙；

【导师】 乞建勋； 李翔；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 技术经济及管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 煤炭资源对内蒙古的发展起到了积极的促进作用,但地区资源是有限的,随着世界能源危机的出现,如何稳定、安全、可靠的进行资源供应是世界各国和地区都不可回避的问题。在世界经济一体化,资源全球化的趋势日益加深的今天,内蒙古为实现经济的可持续发展及建设小康社会的任务,必须认真分析本地区资源可供性形势,根据本地区的经济发展目标和资源状况,合理进行煤炭资源开发利用战略规划,以保障内蒙古国民经济可持续高速发展的需要。从空间经济学的角度对内蒙古煤炭开发利用战略进行研究,有利于弄清内蒙古煤炭资源开发面临的环境问题,结合未来经济社会发展对煤炭资源的需求预测,研究内蒙古煤炭资源对经济社会的承载能力,有利于形成煤炭资源开发的科学规划与战略,在确保生态文明前提下,为内蒙古经济社会的可持续发展决策提供参考。同时,有利于投资者更好地了解内蒙古煤炭资源的情况,帮助其更好的进行投资决策。本文首先对内蒙古煤炭资源形势进行分析,继而从内蒙古煤炭供给对经济增长的影响、内蒙古GDP与煤炭消耗相关性分析、内蒙古煤炭资源赋存情况出发对内蒙古煤炭资源可供性进行分析;然后建立煤炭资源支撑能力评价指标体系,计算内蒙古社会经济发展指标与煤炭资源的协调度,对内蒙古煤炭资源支撑能力进行综合评价;接着从内蒙古人均生态足迹需求计算、煤炭资源开采对大气环境的影响、煤矸石对矿区环境的影响、煤炭开采对土地破坏与污染方面分析内蒙古煤炭资源开发的环境影响,并结合内蒙古十七个主要矿区采用环境评价模型进行环境评价与分析,为科学合理规划煤炭资源开发规模、制定内蒙古今后的煤炭资源可持续开发战略奠定基础。在对内蒙古煤炭资源状况、煤炭资源支撑能力、主要矿区环境评价的基础上,采用粗集预测方法和遗传算法与粒子群算法有机混合模式下的神经网络预测方法对内蒙古煤炭资源消费量进行预测;根据内蒙古未来发展对煤炭的需求量,分析内蒙古煤炭资源可持续利用承载力,提出基于可持续利用的内蒙古煤炭资源耗竭速度,最后提出内蒙古煤炭资源开发利用战略及实施措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 The coal resource has played a positive role in promoting the development of Inner Mongolia,but resources of this region are limited.With the world energy crisis,it’s an unavoidable problem of all nationalities and regions that how to provide stable,safe and reliable supply of resources.Nowadays,with the growing tendency of world economic integration and resources globalization,Inner Mongolia should analyze carefully the vicinal situation of resources availability to achieve economic sustainable development and the task of constructing affluent society.Then according to the vicinal economic development objective and resources condition,this paper makes the strategic program of development and exploitation rationally on coal resource in order to ensure the need of sustainable and rapid development of Inner Mongolia’s national economy.With the study on the development and exploitation strategy of Inner Mongolia’s coal resource from the perspective of Space Economics,it’s favorable to make certain the faced environmental problems on coal resource development of Inner Mongolia. With combined with the demand forecast of socioeconomic development on coal resource in future,this paper researches about the carrying capacity of coal resource on social economy in Inner Mongolia.It’s favorable to form the scientific program and strategic decision on development and exploitation of coal resource,to provide reference on strategic decision of economy and society’s sustainable development on the premise of ensuring synusiologic civilization.At the same time,it will help investors to understand the condition of Inner Mongolia’s coal resource better and help them do the better capital investment decision.Firstly,this paper analyzes the situation of coal resource in Inner Mongolia and then analyzes the coal resource availability of Inner Mongolia from the perspective of impact of coal supply on economic growth,the correlation analysis of Inner Mongolia ’s GDP and coal consumption,the current situation of coal resource in Inner Mongolia. Secondly,this paper establishes the evaluation index system of supporting property on coal resource,calculates the degree of coordination on the socio-economic development indicators and coal resource,makes comprehensive evaluation on supporting property of coal resource in Inner Mongolia.Lastly,this paper analyzes the environmental impact of coal resource development in Inner Mongolia from the perspective of per capita ecological footprint demand computing in Inner Mongolia,the impact of coal recourse exploitation on atmospheric environment,the impact of coal gangue on environmental mine area,the impact of coal resource exploitation on the wreck and pollution of land.It adopt environmental assessment model to deal with environmental assessment and analysis combined with seventeen major mine area in Inner Mongolia,then lay the foundation of scientific and rational program on coal resource development scale and the sustainable development strategies’ formulation for coal resource of Inner Mongolia in the future.On the basis of the assessment of the coal resource situation in Inner Mongolia, supporting property of coal resource and environmental assessment on the main mine area and forecast the coal consumption in Inner Mongolia,this paper adopt rough set prediction method and uses neural network forecasting method under the organic mixed-mode of genetic algorithms and particle swarm optimization.According to the coal demand of future development in Inner Mongolia,this paper analyzes the sustainable exploitation bearing capacity of the coal resource in Inner Mongolia,then proposes the exhaust speed of coal resource in Inner Mongolia based on sustainable exploitation.Finally,it proposes the strategic program and implements measure of coal resource development and exploitation in Inner Mongolia.更多还原