【作者】 尚敬福；

【导师】 张建华；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 国内外一系列大面积停电事件的发生和处置过程彰显了国家和电力系统的传统事故管理方法在应对大型电力灾难事件方面有所不足,因此更具系统性视野的应急管理理论正在逐步引入电力系统的事故管理模式之中。但是由于应急管理的新颖性和复杂性,应急管理思想、应急理论框架和现场应急技术与电力行业的结合还有待完善,现场电力系统在系统事件的预测预报阶段、事件的响应和系统的恢复阶段缺乏有效的理论和技术指导。本文将系统理论和一般应急理论的成果应用于电力系统,结合电力系统的实际情况,通过思辨建立了大面积停电应急管理的理论框架模型。管理理论模型通过对电力系统应急主体、内容、关系和环境的分析确立了电力系统应急的目标、阶段和内容。基于该模型和电力系统应急可度量性的思想,提炼了支撑大面积停电应急的若干关键的理论和技术问题。输电系统优化恢复模型是大面积停电应急处置研究的重要内容。本文采用恢复时间和恢复负荷数量作为输电系统恢复优化的目标函数,将网络的拓扑结构、设备的操作特性及其物理完好程度作为约束条件,体现了电力系统灾难应急的目的和特征。本文基于赋时Petri网建立了优化模型,优化目标、相关约束以及停电应急恢复决策中重要的非电气环节均可方便的得到考虑。应急资源的储备和调度关系电力系统应急的成本和效率。本文首先提出了电力应急资源储备和调度的两类优化原理,然后拓展了传统的负荷重要性概念,根据应急目标为其赋予了新的内容。基于所提出的原理和概念,作为算例,本文为移动应急电源建立了优化模型并成功进行了求解,对结果的分析显示了这种方法具有很好的实用价值。有价值的大面积停电的预测估计需要计及多种风险源的影响。本文在定义的停电规模量化指标的基础上,以自然灾害和设备故障为风险源对电力系统停电的规模进行了蒙特卡洛分析。为了提高模拟的准确性,在分析中计及了负荷转移连锁、保护隐性故障以及发电机失稳等对大面积停电的发生有重要意义的因素。算例结果显示了这种方法可以较好的运用于运行方式安排的校核。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Occurrence and disposal process of a series of large-scale blackouts at home and abroad revealed some insufficiencies in the traditional accident management of governments and electric power industry when exposed to power system disasters,thus the emergency management possessing more systematic vision has gradually been introduced into the management mode of power system.However,as the emergency management discipline is quite novel and complicated,there is still much work to do in combining the philosophy and theory framework of emergency management and field emergency response technologies with electric power industry.Up to now,when it comes to predicting,responding,and restoring those system-level emergencies in practical electric power system,there is still insufficiency in the guide of valid thories and technologies.According to the practical situation of electric power system,the achievements of system theory and general emergency response theory were applied to electric power system in this thesis and the model of theory framework for the emergency management of large-scale blackouts was built in critical thinking.Through the analysis of the subjects,contents,relationships and environment of emergency management of electric power industry,the theoretical model identifies the objects,stages and contents of emergency management of electric power system.Based on this model and the ideas of measurable emergency response of electric power system,some issues of the key theory and technology were abstracted to support the emergency management of large-scale blackouts.The optimal model of transmission system restoration determines the quality of large-scale blackouts emergency response.In this thesis the objective function including the restoration time and the quantity of restored demand shows the prime goals of electric power system emergency management,and the constraint conditions for system restoration consist of network topology,operating characteristics and its degree of soundness.By the model formed by Petri network with time factor,optimal objects and related constraint conditions are preferable in consideration.Furthermore,this model could consider more easily the important non-electrical processes for restoration decisions in large-scale blackouts emergency response.The preparation and dispatch of resources are related to the cost and efficiency of electric power system emergency management.Two classes of optimal principle of resources were proposed in this thesis,and then the traditional concepts of demand importance degree were extended to some new meanings according to the goals of emergency management.As an example,an optimal model for mobile emergency generators,based on the principles and concepts in this thesis,was constructed and solved;the results indicated that this methodology possesses better practical value.The excellent estimation of large-scale blackouts need consider the impact of numerous risk sources.Based on the quantity index proposed in this thesis,monte-carlo method together with the risk resources of natural disaster and device failure was carried out to evaluate the size of possible blackouts.In order to improve the accuracy of simulations,cascading load transfer,and hidden failure of relay and stability of generators which are important to the occurrence of large-scale blackouts were involved in the simulation.The results of the adopted example indicated that this methodology could be applied to validate the proposed operation plan of electric power system.更多还原