【作者】 卢文光；

【导师】 黄鲁成；

【作者基本信息】 北京工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 随着科学技术的快速发展,新兴技术层出不穷,新兴技术给国家、产业和社会带来的影响也越来越大,现在没有哪个国家可以忽视新兴技术的发展,在某种意义上,可以说未来国家、产业和企业的竞争是新兴技术的竞争,特别是新兴技术产业化的数量,质量和速度的竞争。但如何识别新兴技术,进而对其进行评价和选择,以及最终使新兴技术实现商业化和产业化是摆在国家和企业面前的一道难题,同时这也是理论界研究比较薄弱的方面。本文依托导师黄鲁成教授主持的国家自然科学基金重点项目《奥运科技产业化及基于奥运市场规则的国际化发展研究》(70639002),通过采用属性综合评价方法、技术预见、模糊一致性矩阵和系统动力学方法,对新兴技术产业化潜力评价及其成长性进行了深入系统的研究,同时进行了相应的对策研究。首先,对国内外关于技术评价和新兴技术产业化潜力评价的理论与方法进行了系统的研究。重点对技术选择的方法、实践,以及技术评价范式的发展和技术评价理论的发展进行了比较全面的总结,特别地,对新兴技术产业化潜力评价的指标体系,评价的模型和方法进行了系统的梳理。其次,对新兴技术的内涵、特征,新兴技术的分类和形成路径,以及新兴技术的识别进行了深入的总结研究,在此基础上,构建了新兴技术的识别指标体系,并利用属性综合评价方法对新兴技术进行了定量的识别研究。对新兴技术产业化潜力的概念,产业化过程的特点进行了系统的分析。对新兴技术产业化潜力的影响因素:技术因素,市场因素,产业因素,符合性因素,和效应因素进行了系统的辨识和详细的分析。为后续章节的新兴技术产业化潜力评价及其成长性研究奠定了研究基础。第三,构建了一个先由课题组成员初选、初级技术人员和实验室人员再选,以及基于技术预见和模糊一致性矩阵终选的新兴技术产业化潜力评价的三阶段模型。基于技术预见的方法和思想,通过Delphi和专家调查法构建了新兴技术产业化潜力的评价指标体系,并利用配对t检验的方法,对所建立的指标体系就新兴技术产业化潜力与传统技术评价进行了分析对比,得出了新兴技术产业化潜力与传统技术评价之间的不同点,验证了新兴技术产业化潜力评价指标体系的科学性和适用性。在此基础上利用Delphi方法和名义专家小组法对待评价新兴技术产业化潜力进行专家打分,同时以待评价新兴技术背景资料的定量数据,对专家的打分进行了定量化的修正,使得评价具有了兼顾定性和定量指标,主、客观相结合的特点,这样最大限度地使用了可以获得的评价资源,使评价更具合理性和科学性。最后使用模糊一致性矩阵的方法对新兴技术产业化潜力进行了评价研究。第四,新兴技术产业化潜力成长性通过系统动力学建模,模拟分析了新兴技术产业化潜力成长性的基本结构、基本回路、典型的动态行为模式及其动力学性质;模拟分析了新兴技术产业化潜力成长性与影响因素的动态关系,在此基础上提出了若干有关新兴技术产业化潜力成长性的管理战略和决策方面的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 For the time being, emerging technologies have mushroomed up gradually with the rapid development of science and technology, and emerging technologies have bring obvious impacts on states, industries and societies. There is no countries which can oversee the development of emerging technologies, it can be say that the competition between countries and states are the one of emerging technologies, specially the quality, quantity and speed of commercialization and industrialization of emerging technologies. It is not only a difficult task for countries and enterprises to identify, further evaluate and select emerging technologies, finally commercialize and industrialize emerging technologies; but also an weak issue for researchers to study theoretically.This paper was based on the key research project“Olympic science and technology industrialization and globalization based on Olympic marketing regulation”lead by advisor, professor Huang Lu-cheng, which was supported by The National Nature Science Foundation of China (70629002). This paper has systematically and deeply studied the emerging technology industrialization potential assessment and its growth by attribute comprehensive assessment method, technology foresight, fuzzy consistency matrix and system dynamic.At first, this paper has systematically reviewed the technology evaluation and emerging technology industrialization potential assessment theory and methodologies in China and abroad. The review focuses on the technology assessment methodologies, practices, paradigm development and assessment theory development. Specially the systematical review was made of emerging technology industrialization potential assessment indexing systems, models and methodologies. Secondly, deeply study on meaning and characteristic, classification and forming routing, identification of emerging technology was made. And a comprehensive method was proposed to identify emerging technologies by attribute synthesis method.The systematical analysis was made of emerging technologies industrialization potential meaning and process; the comprehensive analysis and identification made of the influencing factors of emerging technologies industrialization potential, such as technical factors, market factors, industrial factors, conformity factors, environmental and resources factors and risk factors. This part has lay an solid study base for emerging technologies industrialization potential and its growth assessment.Thirdly, this paper proposed three stages model of emerging technologies industrialization potential assessment, which is initial selection by team members, re-selection by primary technicians and lab researcher, and final-selection by technology foresight method and fuzzy consistence matrix. By the introduction of technology foresight method and thought, the indexing system of emerging technologies industrialization potential assessment was set-up by Delphi method and expert panels; and analyzed the established indexing system by paired t test, obtained the different focuses of emerging technologies industrialization potential assessment and traditional technologies assessment to validate the science and applicability of the established indexing system. The emerging technologies industrialization potential assessment was made based on expert score and technology background information by fuzzy consistency matrix, which is a method combining subject opinion and subjective data, fully utilized available information.Fourthly, the system dynamic model of emerging technologies industrialization potential growth was built to simulate and analyze the basic structure,basic circuit,typically dynamic behavior pattern and their SD characteristics during the growth of emerging technologies industrialization potential. This paper simulates and analyzes the dynamic relationship between emerging technologies industrialization potential growth and influencing factors, and proposed some suggestion of management stratagem and policy for emerging technologies industrialization potential growth.更多还原