【作者】 王正明；

【导师】 路正南；

【作者基本信息】 江苏大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 人类社会的发展正面临着日益严重的能源短缺和环境破坏等问题,可持续发展、清洁发展已成为时代的共识。与传统能源相比,风能作为一种在全球范围内广泛分布的清洁、永续能源,其有效利用不仅可以摆脱对不可再生的化石能源的依赖,化解常规电力的燃料价格风险,保证发电成本的稳定,而且可以从根本上解决常规能源发电所带来的硫、粉尘、碳排放等环境成本问题。从技术角度来看,目前,风力发电已成为世界上公认的、除了水电之外,最具有大规模商业开发价值的可再生能源利用技术。因此,风力发电作为有效减缓气候异常问题、提高国家能源安全性、促进低碳产业经济增长的方案,得到了各国政策制定机构、投融资机构、技术研发机构以及项目开发商的高度青睐,风力发电已经成为世界许多国家可持续发展能源战略的重要组成部分。近年来,国内外风力发电的发展速度大大超过了人们的预期,增长惊人。据统计,在过去10年中风力发电装机容量年平均增长率达到28%,2008年年底,全球装机容量累计达到12118.8万千瓦,每年新增约2000万千瓦。我国具有丰富的风能资源,陆地及近海风能资源的技术可开发量保守估计在10亿千瓦左右。近年来,我国政府高度重视可再生能源产业的发展,出台了以《可再生能源法》为核心的一系列促进风电产业发展的政策法规,风电装机容量出现了“爆炸式”的增长。截至到2008年年底,我国累计风电装机容量在经过连续3年的翻番后已达到1215.28万千瓦,在世界各国的排名中提升到第4位。随着风电装机容量的扩张,我国风电设备制造业的发展也是异军突起。到2007年年底,我国风电制造及相关零部件企业已经达到100多家,2008年国产风电设备累计装机容量占国内风电市场的份额已经超过了60%。这些数据表明,我国风电产业已经开始进入规模化发展的新阶段,不仅风电市场容量得到极大扩展,形成了全球最大的风电市场之一,而且风电设备制造技术的引进、消化吸收和再创新的速度不断加快,正在形成全球重要的风电设备制造基地。然而,我国风电产业发展也正面临着一些风险和挑战,其中,风电设备制造业的国际竞争能力还十分薄弱,关键技术受制于人是最主要的方面。因此,在中国风电市场已经打开,巨大的市场潜力正吸引国内外投资展开激烈竞争和角逐的情况下,研究我国风电产业链培育、发展的路径与对策,特别是探索我国风电设备制造业建立强大国际竞争能力的机制和途径,就显得特别重要。我国风电产业的发展面临着风电投资成本与收益不对称的矛盾。运用成本收益分析方法建模分析表明,目前制约我国风电产业持续健康发展的经济问题主要有两个方面,一是风电成本较高,制约着风电投资价值的提高;二是风电价格相对较低,不能吸引社会资金的广泛参与。在决定风电成本的因素中,风电设备价格和融资成本的弹性系数较大,是成本控制的主要因素。因此,要解决风电成本高的问题,就要从提高风电设备国产化水平,完备风电投融资等扶持政策,有效整合风电产业链资源、提升风电产业价值层次等多方面加强风电产业链的培育和支持,以降低风电设备价格和风电投资的成本。而要解决风电价格相对较低的问题,则要以解决常规电力外部效应内部化为核心,逐步完善风电价格形成机制,提高风电投资的价值。我国风电产业链的发展空间巨大,具有充分发挥风电设备制造规模效应的潜在优势。基于Logistic模型和学习曲线模型构造的风电产业演化模型仿真分析表明,我国风电产业链的发展前景广阔。一是在今后几十年(2030年之前),我国风电装机容量都将保持较高的综合增长速度,风电市场持续扩张能力很强;二是风电设备制造业发展潜力巨大,如果仅满足国内风电市场的需求,我国风电设备制造业在短期内就有条件形成规模效应,大幅降低风电设备价格;三是随着学习效应的发挥,我国风电投资成本还有很大的降低空间,从而大大增强风电产业的市场竞争能力。促进我国风电设备制造业的发展,需要加强保护和选择恰当的培育模式。与世界先进水平相比,我国目前的风电产业,特别是风电设备制造业,其技术水平还处在相对落后的地位。面对风电设备制造大国激烈的竞争,以适度关税措施为例的风电设备制造业保护的博弈分析模型表明,对于风电设备制造业这样一个新兴的幼稚产业,建立必要的和适度的产业保护措施是十分必要的。在风电设备制造业发展模式的选择上,恰当的产业链培育模式对我国风电设备制造业的发展影响很大,应在发展中更加注重提升产业创新能力,坚持引进消化与自主创新的有机结合,避免走“用市场换不来先进技术”的老路。经过对风电价格形成机制的分析可以发现,实质上风电价格的形成更具有市场化的基础,但现实中又不具备完全市场化的条件,关键是与风电形成竞争关系的常规电力在现实中尚未将外部成本内部化。合理的风电价格应能准确反映风电成本构成与需求变动情况。从优化我国风电价格形成机制上看,常规电力外部成本内部化是形成合理风电价格的关键,价格补贴是现行合理风电价格形成的实质内容,市场化管制比直接行政价格管制具有更多的优越性。风电价格形成机制的优化,应变“招标定价”为“招标定商”,继续完善特许权招标规则,统一风电项目优惠政策,建立与化石能源稀缺程度相联系的长期的电价联动机制,并继续完善影响风电价格形成的配套政策和措施。这不仅需要从国家战略、产业政策的高度作出科学规划,而且需要从配套制度、服务体系以及市场制度等方面不断进行完善;这不仅需要理清风电产业链发展的纵向和横向关系,及时解决发展中存在的问题,而且还需要把握风电产业演化的规律,建立起有利于风电产业链成长和发展的强有力的保障机制。由于我国风电产业存在着明显的规模经济性,产业链之间技术关联程度大,资产专用性强,同时由于风电产业链的线性结构明显,一个环节的负外部性都有可能危害整个产业链,因此,风电产业链的整合势在必行,尤其是在风电产业分化发展到一定程度以后,前瞻性地建立与产业整合相适应的机制和经济规制政策就显得十分必要。展望我国风电产业的发展,其成长空间和市场潜力是十分巨大的,我国风电产业在未来几十年中还将保持较快的增长速度,完全有可能成为新的世界风电龙头。但是,一个新兴产业的发展会受到种种不确定性因素的制约,从发生概率上虽然可以预测其成长和发展趋势,但谁也无法准确预知未来。因此,论文研究只能说是为以后的深入探索做了一些基础性的工作,许多风电产业链发展中的新问题,尤其是风电产业链进一步整合和演化问题,都非常值得继续深入研究探讨。更多还原

【Abstract】 Mankind is confronted with the increasing lack of energy and environmental damage,so the sustainable development and dean development have been the general consensus in this era.Compared to the traditional power,the wind power can be taken as widely-distributed,clean and sustainable energy which gets rid of the dependence on nonrenewable fossil energy and defuses the fuel cost risk of normal power so as to ensure the cost stability of power generation,which basically solves the environmental cost of discharge of sulfur,dust and carbon caused by the normal power.In the aspect of technology,the wind power has been widely recognized as the renewable energy with large-scale commercial value besides hydropower.Therefore,the wind power can effectively mitigate the climatic anomaly,improve the safety of national energy and promote the economic growth of low-carbon industry,so it is highly favored by policy institutions,investing & financing institutions,R&D institutions and project developers. Nowadays,the wind power has been the integral part of developing the strategy of sustainable energy in many countries around the world.In recent years,the speed of developing the wind power abroad greatly exceeds our anticipation.It is estimated that the average growth rate of installed capacity of wind power reached 28%in the past ten years.At the end of 2008,the accumulative total installed capacity has reached 121188 MW around the world,with new increase of 20000 MW per year.Our country has rich wind resources.It is conservatively estimated that the technologically exploitable amount of wind energy is around 1 billion KW in the land and off-shore.Our government has attached great importance to the development of renewable energy and has issued a series of statutes and policies of promoting the development of wind power industry with Renewable Energy Law as a core.The installed capacity of wind power has shown the explosive increase.Till the end of 2008,the accumulative installed capacity of wind power has reached 12152.8 MW after the consecutive double for three years,ranking the fourth in the world.With the expansion of installed capacity of wind power,the equipment manufacturing of wind power has been a dark horse.At the end of 2007,the number of enterprises producing the wind-power equipments and related spare parts has reached more than 100.Domestic installed capacity of wind-power equipment accounts for more than 60% in domestic wind-power market.These data indicate that the wind power industry in China has entered into the new phrase of scale development.The market capacity of wind power has been greatly expanded and been one of the largest wind-power markets. Moreover,to introduce,digest,absorb and re-innovate the technology of manufacturing the wind-power equipment has been speeded up.The worldwide important manufacturing base of wind power equipment is forming.But,the development of wind power industry in China is confronted with some risks and challenges.The international competitiveness of manufacturing wind-power equipments is so weak because the key technology is manipulated by others.Thus,the wind-power market is opening up and the domestic and foreign investments have been attracted by tremendous market potential and have been engaged in furious competition.It is particularly important to have a study on cultivating and developing the industry chain of wind power,especially the exploration of establishing the mechanism and method of powerful international competitiveness in Chinese wind-power equipment manufacturing.China’s wind power industry faces with the asymmetrical dilemma between wind-power investment cost and benefit.The cost-and-benefit analysis model shows that there are two aspects of economic problems checking the sustainable and healthy development of wind-power industry:one is the higher cost of wind power,which restraints the improvement of the wind-power investment value;the other is the lower price of wind power which can’t be extensively attracted the involvement of funds from the society.Among the factors determining the wind-power cost,the elasticity coefficient between wind-power equipment price and financing cost is the main factor of controlling the cost.Therefore,the solution to the higher cost of wind power should start from strengthening the cultivation and development of the wind-power industry chain,such as to improve the nationalization level of wind-power equipments,perfect polices supporting wind-power financing,effectively integrate the industry chain resources of wind power and promote the industry value of wind power,in order to cut down the price of wind-power equipments and the cost of wind-power investment.The solution to the lower price of wind power is to get ride of the problem that the normal power takes the internalization as the core and to gradually perfect the price formation mechanism and to improve the value of wind-power investment.There is tremendous room for developing the industry chain of wind power and potential advantage of giving full play to the scale effect of manufacturing the wind power equipments.Based on the logistic model and learning curve model,the simulation analysis on the evolution model of wind-power industry shows that the industry chain of wind power has an expansively developing prospect.Firstly,the installed capacity of wind power will keep highly composite growth speed over the next decades(before 2030) and the wind-power market will strongly expand;secondly,the potential of manufacturing wind-power equipments is huge.If only meeting the domestic demands of wind-power market,the manufacturing industry of wind power will form the scale effect in the short term and aggressively cut the price of wind-power equipments;thirdly,with the exploitation of learning effect,there is plenty of space to decrease the cost of wind-power investment,which greatly increase the competitiveness of wind-power industry.To promote the development of the manufacturing industry of wind-power equipments needs to strengthen effective protection and suitable cultivation model. Compared with the international advanced level,the current wind-power industry especially the manufacturing industry of wind-power equipments lags behind technologically.Faced with the furious competition of leading countries manufacturing wind-power equipments,the game theory model shows that it is imperative to set up necessary and modest protection measures for such an infant industry as wind-power manufacturing industry.In the selection of developing pattern in the manufacturing industry of wind-power equipments,the appropriate cultivation pattern of industry chain has much effect on the manufacturing industry of wind-power equipments.To promote the innovative ability should be put accent on in the industry development.We should keep on the organic combination between introduction & digestion and autonomous innovation and avoid taking the old path that the market can’t exchange the technology.After the analysis of the mechanism of wind-power price formation,the price of wind power actually has the marketization basis,but it doesn’t have the qualification for complete marketization in reality.The key is that the normal power which forms the competitive relation to the wind power has realized internalization in reality.Reasonable wind-power price should exactly reflect the constitution of wind-power cost and the change of demand.Seen from the optimization of wind-power price formation mechanism,the internalization of external cost in normal power is the key to form reasonable wind-power price and the price subsidy is the concrete substance of going reasonable price formation.The regulation of marketization has more superiority over directly administrative price regulation.The optimization of wind-power price formation mechanism should change the bidding pricing to the policy that the bidding determines the enterprise.We should perfect the franchise bidding rules,unify the preferential policy of wind-power project and establish the long-term joint mechanism with the scarce extent of fossil energy.The supporting policies and measures should be continuously improved to influence the wind-power price formation.The scientific planning should be taken a view from national strategy and industry policy and be perfected from the aspects of supporting system,service system and market system.The vertical and horizontal relation in developing the industry chain of wind power should be sorted out so as to timely solve the existing problems in the development.What’s more,it needs to grasp the rule of wind-power industry evolution and establish the powerful guarantee mechanism beneficial for the growth and development of wind-power industry chain.Due to the evident scale economy of wind-power industry,the negative externality of one link might damage the whole industry chain because of the strong technological correlation among industry chains,the strong asset specialization and the obvious strong linear structure of wind-power industry chain.Thus,the integration of wind-power industry chain is imperative,especially after the differentiation of wind-power industry has developed to some extent,it is necessary to prospectively establish mechanisms and economic polices corresponding to the industry integration.To gain a perspective on the development of China’s wind power industry,there is enough room for growth and a huge market with big potential.China’s wind-power industry will continue to grow at a relatively rapid speed in the coming decades and will be possible to lead the world wind power.The development of a new industry,however, will be curbed by various uncertain factors.According to the probability,the growth and developing tendency can be predicted,but no one can predict the future precisely. Therefore,some fundamental work has been done for further explore in this dissertation. Many new problems in the wind-power industry chain deserve further study and exploration,especially the further integration and evolution of wind-power industry chain.更多还原