【作者】 徐咏梅；

【导师】 张宝仁；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 世界经济， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 区域经济合作机制通常由大国主导,该理论已经为北美、欧洲的经验所证明,但东亚地区的经济合作却不符合上述规律,表现为经济总量较大的中日韩等国家间至今仍处于“无形的功能性合作”阶段,同时都挤上经济总量小得多的东盟所搭建的平台,与之建立起以其为中心的“10+3”、“10+1”等制度性、准制度性经济合作或对话机制,不仅使东盟成为东亚经济合作中心的形势越来越清晰,而且在对东亚经济合作的研究中显现出过分肯定“10+3”,排斥其他外交类型的理想主义色彩。论文认为,非常规事物常常会带来难以预料的后果及风险,所以对上述情况必须予以高度关注并认真研究。本文分析了东亚经济合作由发展中小国集团主导的原因;研究了东盟自由贸易区由于本身制度化建设不够完善,一体化标准较低,具有典型“非约束”特征,在东亚合作度过启动期逐渐步入“深水区”之后,其推动作用已明显不足等问题;在指出“10+3+3”可能不在历史发展延长线上的同时,提出了建立以“10+3”为基础,以“10+3+1+n”为途径的东亚经济合作路线图。论文分析了中国在FTAAP框架下的利益分析与战略选择,认为中国应当成为亚太自由贸易区建设的积极推动力量。更多还原

【Abstract】 Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia are in the same region, East Asia, however, there are big gaps between the two areas as to the total economic output and the level of development. Currently Northeast Asia has already become one of the third sections holding out the world economy in addition to Europe and North America. The total gross national product of the countries in the region is more than 10 trillion US dollars ,about 20% of the whole world and 8～9 times to the countries of Southeast Asia.As we all know that the regular pattern of regional economic integration is firstly certain cooperation mechanism is established between countries with big economic output in the region and then expands to surrounding countries with it as the center. Presently the most successful economic cooperation organizations in the world are all coming from this mode. For example, NAFTA is advocated by the United States and Canada while EU is centralized by German and France. However, the ongoing cooperation in Northeast Asia does not accord with this rule, it is still at the stage of‘incorporeal functional cooperation’between China, Japan and Korea, the countries which have big economic output. At the same time, these countries set up a few systematic or pre-systematic economic cooperation or dialogic mechanisms such as’10+3’and‘10+1’relying on ASEAN which has smaller economic output, This situation on one hand clarified the trend that ASEAN is becoming the economic cooperation center of East Asia on the other hand over-emphasizes the function of’10+3’and excludes other diplomatic modes when study on multilateralism, regionalism and the cooperation of East Asia.The writer takes for that unconventional thing usually results in the unrespectable outcomes and risks and ASEAN being the economic cooperation center of EAST Asia is such an instance. Since it bears on China’s regional economic cooperation strategies, involving China’s position and effects in East Asia, relating to China’s politics, safety and economic benefits, so we must pay high attention to the causes, problems and the trends of the situation, and carry through further studies on it.This article is divided into three parts. First of all, it analyses the causes that ASEAN becomes the economic cooperation center of East Asia, and then points out the problems exist and finally indicates the developing trends in future. When analyzing the reason, the writer takes for that the economic cooperation of East Asia led by the group, composed by small developing countries other than big countries, is because of the wide gaps on understanding and acceptance how Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia take on new regionalism. For Northeast Asia, political realism still greatly affects the improving and developing of the national relationships between countries in the region. Therefore even the fact that the region has powerful economic strength and strong demands on economic cooperation between these countries, the level of mechanic economic cooperation is not only behind Southeast Asia but also behind other main economic areas of the world; even there is high trade dependence on each other, the‘overflow efficiency’could not be set free.When studying the problems existing on the economic cooperation mechanisms with ASEAN as center, the writer considers as a‘South-South cooperation’organization, ASEAN , because of its limited economic volume and the lagging level of development compared to China, Japan and Korea, the regional economic cooperation led by it is not very advanced and reasonable. Besides, the mechanism construction of AFTA is not very consummate and the level of integration is pretty low; with the typical character of non-restrict and after the starting period the economic cooperation of East Asia is going to the‘deep water area’, so that the forcing power is fade away gradually. In addition, Japan is trying to dominant the economic cooperation of East Asia and the United States does not like there is an integration mechanism exclude it, so it is difficult that‘10+3’led by ASEAN becomes the main channel to build up the integration of East Asia other than the play of a platform or a bridge of economic cooperation, while‘10+3+3’coming from it may be very well not in the‘prolong line’of history at all.The writer suggests that the developing trends of the economic cooperation of East Asia is with‘10+3’as the foundation, making use of the United States’passion towards the affairs of East Asia, building up the cooperation mechanisms such as the mode of‘10+3+1+n’, then setting out FTAAP, so as to achieve great improvements on the systematic construction of the economic cooperation of East Asia.By analyzing the feasibility of constructing FTAAP and the attitudes that the United States, APEC and ASEAN hold to it respectively, the writer puts up the roadmap of‘10+3+1+n’.In this paper, the writer thinks during the process of building the roadmap ASEAN could gain more benefits from the composite network-type international divided working. It is sure that lots of issues such as how to consolidate the benefits of the members of ASEAN, how to expand the negotiation resources and strength and how to adequately reflect the demands of developing countries will be confronted by ASEAN.The writer deems that‘10+3+1+n’route will be an important step for China to build up two-double many-toroid regional economic cooperation circle and to push forward Asia setting up the Omni-directional cooperation strategies worldwide, therefore China should become the driving force to build up FTAAP. Considering the theory of pan-regionalism, the economic cooperation of East Asia would be more concise when it expands out of the region and with the participation of the United States and ASEAN etc. From the theory of market partition, China has already come into the stage of pursuing trade freedom and start to divide up the market with developed countries. From the view of the level of development, China has more and more common benefits with developed countries, so it is natural to open out more and more close and comprehensive cooperation with these countries. Again, FTAAP is the outcome of partition, conflicts and compromises of political markets against economic markets between the main countries of Asia and Pacific. During this period, these countries, as participants in the political and economic markets, their rational anticipations could be satisfied basically.It is a magnificent project to build up FTAAP which may have great impacts on certain international organizations such as EU and WTO, and there are still some issues need a great deal of further studies.更多还原