【作者】 于大力；

【导师】 张屹山；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 数量经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 本文的研究内容是社会转型状态之下我国的财政收支合理性问题。在讨论我国关于财政税费制度及支出规模等方面存在的诸多问题的基础上,针对这些已经存在问题进行了细致剖析和深入研究,并且提出了一些解决问题的方法与思路。文章实证分析了农业税、个人所得税、二三产业所得税等相关税种以及财政支出的变动对国民经济产出、居民消费以及固定资产投资等方面的影响,检验了税收的减免及财政支出增加对我国的经济发展影响,并且探讨了相关影响因素。结合定性研究和定量研究的结果,我们发现了一些现有财政收支政策中存在的问题,并对不同政策措施进行了数值模拟。本文的研究框架:首先,从财政政策这个总体概念出发,简单介绍了财政政策的基本概念,分析了我国财政政策的演变过程;接下来,梳理了国内外财政收支的理论发展和实证方法;然后,分别对我国财政收入和财政支出对经济发展的影响进行了相应的理论和实证分析;最后,本文详细分析了财政政策在美、日、俄、韩四国具体实践及对我国的政策启示,在此基础上提出了相关的政策建议。本文采取了理论与模型分析相结合的方法。在分析财政收入时,本文主要运用联立方程模型,根据需求导向建立小型宏观经济模型,在模型估计结果的基础上模拟我国各项主要税收对经济的影响效果。在分析财政支出时,运用协整检验、H-P滤波、Granger非因果关系检验、VAR模型和生成脉冲响应函数等多种方法,综合分析财政各项支出对经济增长的作用。而后,基于Panel-Data模型对我国各地方财政支出规模对区域经济差距的效应进行研究。基于实证分析结果,可以看到我国财政收支存在一些不合理之处,本文将对这些不合理之处逐一阐明。更多还原

【Abstract】 Macro-economic policy as the main form of fiscal policy on the economy has been the direct control of the major policy approach to achieve the main demand management tool. People’s understanding of fiscal policy has gone through a process of evolution, which in different historical periods has different points of view. About fiscal policy, there are different points of view. This article begin with a reasonable revenue and expenditure in the theory of macro-economic policies, based on analysis of revenue and expenditure targets and the measurement test of the practical implications of economic growth.For financial income and expenditure, China’s economic structural reform has been to be an economist to explore one of the issues .In this paper, the focus is the social transformation in our country under a state of reasonable revenue and expenditure issues. This article pointed out that China’s financial system, taxes and fees and expense, such as the size of the existing problems, and these problems have carried out a detailed analysis and research in order to find the appropriate solution.This paper has the following line of thought. First of all, we review the process of China fiscal policy and the evolution of financial system, and then we use the article simultaneous equations model of fiscal revenue in particular to make a systematic analysis of financial revenue. In the analysis of financial expenditure, this article uses a variety of methods of measurement, such as the co-integration test, HP filter, Granger Causality Test, and the establishment of VAR model to generate impulse response function of the total financial expenditure, expenditure on the functions and regional economic growth. The article discusses the impact of revenue and expenditure of social investment and consumption output gap in such areas as regional economic issues, then carry out the analysis and research for China’s fiscal revenue and expenditure for the existing problems.First of all, we review the current revenue and expenditure for the rationality of the importance of research. Then this article introduced the main contents and structure of the arrangement.The first chapter introduces the basic theory of fiscal policy. The first and second section describes the financial and fiscal policy, the concept of the function of fiscal policy, goals and tools. The section 3 and section 4 of this chapter introduced the theoretical achievements of the research of the revenue and expenditure by domestic and foreign-related research in the field of comments, on the issue of fiscal policy in particular, the research literatures of the revenue and expenditure are summarized to explain China’s current financial policy profile. Section 5 of the introduction is a summary of revenue and expenditure impact on the effect of the economy. This chapter concludes evidence, and the use of models related to the method described.The second chapter devote to the evolution of China’s fiscal policy, introducing since the founding of our country experienced five step changes in fiscal policy, which is five steps in change: the founding of the reform and opening up, reforming and opening up to the early reform of the tax system, reforming of the tax system in 1998 to implement a proactive fiscal policy and the implementation of sound fiscal policy period. Each chapter during the fiscal policy, the main feature of the results is described in detail. Finally, the sound fiscal policy is an inevitable choice for China’s finance.The third chapter is our country’s fiscal revenue of theory and empirical analysis. This chapter primarily includes the basis of an article of China’s national conditions, the establishment of demand-oriented model of simultaneous equations, consumption, output, investment in such areas as financial income in particular, and made a systematic analysis of tax revenue. Positive indicators to measure the adoption of some of China’s social development status quo and explore the agricultural tax, personal income tax, income tax on secondary and tertiary industries in the national output, the consumer society, as well as the total investment in areas such as the impact of empirical testing of the tax relief will help our country Economic development. Day 3 of this chapter discusses the current revenue problems, including the super-tax GDP growth in personal income tax can not adjust the gap between the rich and the poor, yet the introduction of property tax, resources tax and fee system is imperfect, and so will result in revenue and a series of unfair Related issues arise in this section of the evaluation of these issues.The fourth chapter is our country’s fiscal expenditure theory and empirical analysis. This chapter, the first use of a variety of methods of measurement empirical analysis of China’s fiscal expenditure structure to economic growth, concluded that the financial expenditure and economic growth between the long-run equilibrium and stability, the increase in spending, stimulate economic growth significantly. The functions of the expenditure, that is, economic construction spending, social expenditure on culture and education, defense spending, the administration is spending for economic growth Granger causes of economic growth more marked. Further evidence shows that economic development spending, social cultural and educational expenses, administration expenses of economic growth played an active role in national defense expenditure and expenditure has exceeded the limits in the marginal sense, to become non-productive.Section 2 of this chapter analysis of the size of China’s fiscal expenditure on the regional effects of economic growth, primarily on the basis of endogenous growth model, the establishment of a fixed effect panel data model, according to China’s provincial-level region "tracheotomy" empirical analysis. Concluded that the expenditure of significant economic growth to promote the role of financial expenditure is mainly reflected in the larger region, expenditure on regional economic growth is significant for the central government through the implementation of the preferential fiscal and taxation policies, increase investment in west Financial support for the region, the western region to achieve faster economic growth and thus reduce the western region and the eastern part of the gap between economic development.Section 3 of this chapter is a simple analysis of China’s fiscal expenditure in a number of problems, by analyzing the way with a view to be resolved. In the fifth chapter, we combine the experience of foreign scientific and reasonable construction of China’s financial system. This chapter will be the United States, Japan, Russia, South Korea four different characteristics of the system of fiscal policy analysis carried out through a typical case of individual countries to show the merits of fiscal policy and learn, through a comparative analysis of this chapter comes to improve our financial Revenue and expenditure system.更多还原