【作者】 岳强；

【导师】 杨印生；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 农业机械化工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 在国内外农业机械化发展现状分析基础上,应用系统分析与系统工程方法通过对农业机械化系统的不确定性探讨,重点以东北地区为例对农业机械化系统进行灰色分析,在此基础上对中国式可持续农业机械化教育体系的构建问题展开研究,以期提出农业机械化人才培养的政策建议,为进一步制定东北地区农业机械化发展规划和中国特色农业机械化发展战略研究提供重要的成果基础和更具指导价值的决策依据。首先从系统的观点出发,探讨和论述农业机械化系统中的不确定性,并综述处理不确定性问题的有关数学方法和解决不良结构问题的专家系统技术。通过同时改进序列背景值和初始值,建立改进的GM(1,1)模型,该模型适应于低增长序列和高增长序列,且预测精度高,并利用此模型对我国玉米机械化收获水平进行了预测。通过对东北地区种植业生产经济系统和机械化系统的投入产出状况以及经济环境状况的基本情况进行分析,运用灰色关联分析方法对其进行系统辨识。运用基于产出的DEA模型对中国31各省(市、自治区)2001-2005农机化系统的二次相对效率进行了评价,并运用灰色关联分析方法对影响二次相对效率的主要因素进行了辨识,以期为中国农业机械化未来的发展提供决策依据和参考。最后从农业生产的全生命周期和农业机械化全过程生命周期来分析农业机械化教育体系,构建中国式可持续的农机教育体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 “Three Dimensional Rural Issues”is a basic issue of our country. The issues such as how to increase peasants’income, expand their employment approach and improve their overall quality, etc. have been the main restrictive factors of“Three Dimensional Rural Issues”. At present, our country is in the crucial period of transition from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture. In this special period, agricultural mechanization is not only an important component of agricultural synthesis productivity, but also the important material base of modern agriculture besides the important component and sign of agriculture modernization. So, the author thinks that agriculture modernization can’t come true without agriculture modernization in our country.The purposes of this dissertation can be shown as following: At first, carrying on grey analysis of agricultural mechanization system by taking northeast of China as a sample after analysis the uncertainty of agricultural mechanization system by using system engineering theory on the basis of analyzing development status of domestic and foreign agricultural mechanization. Secondly, studying on the construction of sustainable educational system for agricultural mechanization of Chinese type and put forward some proper policy suggestions for personnel training of agricultural mechanization specialty. So, we can provide important achievements support and valuable decision-making foundation for future constituting agricultural mechanization development plan of northeast of China and studying development stratagem of agricultural mechanization with Chinese Characteristics in future.This dissertation is composed of eight chapters.The first chapter serves as introduction, among which the background of the choice of the subject, the purpose of the paper and the significance are illustrated. Based on all the documents and information available at home and abroad, a detailed exposition of domestic and foreign agricultural mechanization technology development and research is also given here, together with the combination of the features of agricultural mechanization in China, and finally present the content and research methods, and technical route of this dissertation.In the second chapter, the author mainly researched uncertainty of agricultural mechanization system. At first, the author discussed the uncertainty of agricultural mechanization system according to systematology. The main viewpoint of the author concerning this chapter can be stated as follows: as a subsystem of agricultural system, agricultural mechanization system was a typical complex nonlinear system. Which contains not only certain factors but also uncertain factors, even randomicity, fuzziness, grey and unascertained characteristic,etc. So, it is necessary to synthetically using not only certain models and methods but also uncertain models and methods, and decision support system based on AI principle further to describe, process and solve agricultural mechanization system. So, the author stated related mathematics methods serving to uncertain issues and expert system technology serving to poor structure.In the third chapter, the author offered an introduction of grey system and its basic model. At first, the author introduced basic thought and concepts of grey system theory, emphatically introduced two important grey models, i.e. GM (1,1) model and Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) model.The author offered an improvement to GM(1,1) model and grey exponential smoothing model. At first this chapter described the necessity of model improvement, proposes improvement to GM(1,1) model by improving background value and the starting value and got improved GM(1,1) model. This model suitable for low growth date sequent and high growth date sequent with preferable precision in forecast. At last, the author forecasted the level of mechanization harvest about corn in our country by using the improved GM(1,1) model.In the fourth chapter, the author offered Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) of agricultural mechanization system. The author carried on system identification of agricultural mechanization system by using Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) after analyzing input-output of northeastern planting productive system and agricultural mechanization system combined with economic and environmental status. According to the analysis results, we can get the conclusion that poor economic benefit is a key problem existing in planting productive system. Furthermore, excessive agricultural labor and rural population play a negative role in the development of agricultural mechanization and increase of peasants ’ income. The reason for this phenomenon is enormous population and faulty household registration system. In addition, the government plays an important role in planting, the financial support of government is necessary for the development of planting, and the enhancement of government and peasant’s individual investment led the growth of planting machine in Northeast.In the fifth chapter, the author offered two-stage relative efficiency evaluation and influence factor identification of agricultural mechanization system. The author got of 31 DMUs named province, municipality, or autonomous region by applying output-oriented BCC model, and analyzed the main factors restricting two-stage relative efficiencies of each DMU by Grey Relational Analysis (GRA), and the results can give effective suggestions for the development of China’s agricultural mechanization. According to the results of two-stage relative efficiency evaluation, we can draw the conclusion that the whole technical efficiency of China’s agricultural mechanization increased obviously in the tenth five-year planning period of China. The improvement of technical efficiency reflected the tendency of moving upward of efficiency frontier as the improvement of policy and management of China’s agricultural mechanization in the tenth five-year planning period of China. The result of Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) shows that the main factor influencing two-stage relative efficiencies of China’s agricultural mechanization performance contains comprehensive operation level of agricultural mechanization, employment structure and basic condition of agricultural mechanization, etc.In the sixth chapter, the author offered the construction process of the sustainable educational system for agricultural mechanization in China. In this chapter, the author put forward the Chinese type sustainable educational system for agricultural mechanization according to the viewpoint of total life cycle contains agricultural production and the whole process of agricultural mechanization. The main conclusions can be shown as follows: the development trend of China’s agricultural mechanization education is changing from olive type(i.e. there are many personnel engaged in production, maintenance, and repair service while lesser personnel engaged in research, popularization, and management, etc.) to dumbbells type(i.e. the professional personnel should be accomplished in not only production, maintenance, and repair service but also research, popularization, and management, etc.). In other words, we should train personnel with the ability of demonstration, popularization and management besides design, use and maintain of agricultural mechanism. So, China’s sustainable educational system for agricultural mechanization should focus on bringing up high-level talent, management talent and popularization talent of agricultural mechanization. In order to promote sustainable development of China’s agricultural mechanization, we should greatly develop vocational education of agricultural mechanization besides bring up graduate student of agricultural mechanization engineering.更多还原