【作者】 刘旭友；

【导师】 何炼成； 黄少安；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 政治经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 到目前为止,已经有许多发达国家和发展中国家建立了国家实物战略储备,国家实行实物战略储备,成为现代国家通行的做法。随着我国战略资源对外依存度的不断提高,资源短缺凸显建立国家实物战略储备的必要性。在美国利用美元国际货币地位采取时间不一致性国际货币政策的条件下,建立以实物为依托的国家实物战略储备体系,是应对美元泛滥的有效手段。更为重要的是,国家实物战略储备作为连续性和不间断的资源供给模式,为支持经济社会可持续发展提供了物质基础,国家实物战略储备蕴含着经济社会可持续发展的内在逻辑,是国家实现经济社会可持续发展的重要战略手段,应该成为国家战略的重要元素。国家实物战略储备和一般的企业储备运行特征明显不同,国家实物战略储备以逆周期运行为特征:即当市场价格低迷、产能过剩时,国家通过收储提振萧条的经济;而当市场价格高涨、需求过旺时,国家投放储备产品给过热的经济降温。国家实物战略储备的运行与经济社会可持续发展之间存在高度契合。从可持续发展的自然属性来看,国家储备的运行有助于防止人类的经济活动突破自然环境承载的阈值,从而保护自然系统的生产和更新能力,使自然环境始终处于可逆的状态中,确保作为经济发展主体的人与作为客体的自然系统保持在和谐的状态中;从可持续发展的社会属性来看,国家储备通过对供求关系时间不一致的处理,实现资源代际公平配置,在维持生态系统承载能力的情况下,有利于提高代际传承的人类生活质量。从可持续发展的经济属性来看,国家实物储备的运行在于解决市场机制配置资源失效,国家实物储备的运行是对市场价格调整机制的逆向复制,这种逆向复制是对市场失灵的帕累托改进。国家实物战略储备是由国家提供的公共产品,是调节非均衡市场失灵的必要手段之一,不仅能修复市场机制在微观领域中配置资源失效,而且能够把分散的个人理性决策转化为集体理性决策,克服了市场机制造成的宏观经济过度不稳定;论文通过对储备进行社会净福利分析发现,和没有储备相比,储备具有帕累托改进的意义,因此,储备是有效的;利用时间一致性对储备进行分析发现,在储备实施的时间维度中,政府承诺与政府对承诺的实施具有一致性,储备作为一项宏观调控政策置信度高。虽然其缺乏像财政政策与货币政策那样相机抉择的灵活性,但仍然可以成为宏观经济政策体系的重要内容。国家实物战略储备作为国家宏观调控体系的重要补充,由国家实物储备的稳定机理与调控机理来决定。国家实物战略储备通过对市场价格调整机制的复制,设计了一个负反馈机制,通过对价格的适度逆向调整使经济达到相对稳定状态;国家实物储备调控的实现,依赖于国家实物储备的四个功能:稳定功能、应急功能、蓄水池功能和服务功能。通过对国家实物战略储备的运作可以达到或实现与其他宏观经济政策一样的目标。通过对中国1999年至2008年退耕还林的考察,印证了国家实物战略储备与经济社会可持续发展之间的高度契合。国家粮食储备是退耕还林的支撑要素,退耕还林改善了生态环境,生态环境的改善进一步培育了粮食可持续供给能力。通过退耕还林,实现了粮食产品储备向粮食生产能力储备的转换,从而使粮食生产能力储备向粮食产品储备可持续转换成为可能。产品形式的储备与能力形式的储备之间的相互转换成为可能对其他战略储备具有普遍的借鉴意义,不同形式之间的储备在不同时点的相互转换对经济社会可持续发展具有重要的价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Up to now, lots of countries including developing countries have established their own national strategy reserves. It becomes a modern country practice. In China, with the strategic resources external dependence deepening, shortage of resources highlights the need for the establishment of national reserves. And a national commodity strategy reserve system should help to deal effectively with the flooding of U.S. dollar which is caused by the time consistency international monetary policy made by US relying on the US dollar’s international currency dominance. More importantly, work as a kind of continuously and uninterrupted resource supply pattern, the national strategy reserves support the economy and society sustainable development fundamentally, contains the logic of society sustainable development .Thus the national strategy reserves is a important strategic method in realizing economy and society sustainable development, it should be a important one of national strategy.To comparing with the movement characteristic of the common enterprise stockpiles, it is obviously different that national strategic strategy reserve takes the conversion period movement as a characteristic. On the one hand, when the market price is murky, produces can be surplus, the country through reserving to inspire economic depression; on the other hand. when the market price surges upward and is excessively prosperous, the national delivery reserved product which gives the overheated economy temperature decreasing .It agrees with highly between the national strategic strategy reserve’s movement and the sustainable development of economic society. Looking from sustainable development’s natural quality, the national reserve movement is helpful in preventing humanity’s economic activity breakthrough natural environment limits which protects the natural system’s production and renewal ability and causes the natural environment to be in the reversible condition and guarantees the human and the natural harmony. Looking from sustainable development’s social attribute, the national reserve processes the time inconsistent of supply-demand relation to dispose a resources generation of border fairly. It is advantageous which improves humanity’s quality of life through maintaining the ecosystem bearing capacity. Looking from sustainable development’s economical attribute, the national reserve solves the market failure. The national reserve’s movement is reversion duplication to the adjustment mechanism of market that is a Pareto improvement.The national strategic reserve is the public product which provides by the country. it is one of non-balanced market failure essential methods. Not can only the national strategic reserve repair the market failure in the microscopic domain, but also can transform the scattered individual rational decision-making as the collective rational decision-making, which overcome the excessive instability of macro economic. By the theory of social net welfare analysis, the reserve has the significance which Pareto improves to compare with no-reserve, therefore, the reserve is effective; By the theory of time inconsistency analysis, discovery, the government pledged that has the uniformity with the government to the pledge implementation in the reserve implementation’s time dimension. The reserve is worth trusting highly as a policy of macroeconomic regulation and control. Although it lacks the flexibility which the financial policy and monetary policy have optical chooses, but might become one of important policy macroeconomic system.The national strategic reserve takes one of policy of the national macroeconomic regulation and control system, which decided by the national reserve’s stable mechanism and the regulative mechanism. The national strategic reserve designs a negative feedback mechanism to duplicate the market price adjustment mechanism’s which enables to adjust the moderate price inversely to achieve the relative stabilization condition. The national strategic reserve relies on the national reserve four functions: Stable function, emergency function, reservoir function and service function. The national strategy reserve’s operation may realize the same goal as the other macroeconomic policy operation.Through inspecting to Conversion of cropland to forest in China from 1999 to 2008, we have confirmed that it is agreeing with highly between the national strategic reserve and sustainable development of economic society. The national grain reserves were one of support essential factors to Conversion of cropland to forest. Conversion of cropland to forest improved the ecological environment and the ecological environment improvement has further cultivated the grain sustainable supplies ability. Conversion of cropland to forest has realized transformation from the grain product reserve to the food production ability reserve; therefore, it is possible transforming from the food production ability reserve to the grain product reserve. It is universally profits from the significance to other strategic reserve interconversion between the product form’s reserve and the ability form’s reserve. There is important value interconversion in the different point to the sustainable development of economic society.更多还原