【作者】 钞小静；

【导师】 任保平；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 西方经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 在经济增长理论发展的200多年历史里,一直把经济增长的数量问题当作是经济增长的全部内容,所有理论探讨的中心问题都是如何实现经济数量上的扩张,但是却很少讨论经济增长质量的提高。中国经济改革与经济转型30年以来,经济增长的数量扩张迅速,但与此同时,经济增长质量问题也渐渐凸显出来。本文采用国际规范的逻辑实证主义分析方法,以经济转型为背景,在对经济增长质量进行清晰界定与准确度量的基础上,构建一个系统的分析框架对中国的经济增长质量问题进行理论解释与实证分析。经济增长质量是指经济增长内在的性质与规律,具体包括经济增长的结构、经济增长的稳定性、福利变化与成果分配以及资源利用和生态环境代价四个维度。本文从经济增长质量的外延与内涵出发构建出由28个基础指标构成的测度经济增长质量的指数,采用主成分分析法(PCA)确定各指标的权重,通过均值化方法对各指标数值进行无量纲化处理并以基础指标的协方差矩阵作为输入,来避免使用标准化方法和相关系数矩阵所造成的对不同指标相对离散程度的低估或夸大。对中国及各地区1978-2007年经济增长质量的测度结果表明,经济转型30年以来我国总体层面和区域层面的经济增长质量水平都获得了一定程度的提高,但是各地区之间的经济增长质量水平却存在很大差异。当经济增长的结构趋向于均衡时,当经济增长的稳定性逐渐增强时,当经济增长带来居民整体福利水平上升或成果分配改善时,当资源利用效率不断提高和生态环境代价逐渐降低时,经济增长质量都将会得到提高。通过对1978-2007年中国的省际面板数据进行实证分析,发现模型的估计结果与理论研究的结论是一致的,中国经济转型期经济增长的结构、经济增长的稳定性、福利变化与成果分配以及资源利用和生态环境代价都与经济增长质量之间存在显著的正向关系。因此,在中国经济发展进入新阶段的背景下,在经济增长数量不断扩张的同时,还需要不断调整经济增长的结构,保持经济增长的稳定性,改善经济增长的福利水平和成果分配,改进经济增长的资源利用效率和生态环境代价,要实现经济增长的数量与质量的统一,追求中国经济发展的长期可持续性。更多还原

【Abstract】 During the development of economic growth theory, most studies have put the quantity of growth as the full content of economic growth, but never consider the quality of economic growth. In the 30 years of China’s economic reform, as quantity of economic growth increased rapidly, many problems of quality of economic growth have gradually come out. Based on the logical empiricism, this paper clearly defines quality of economic growth from its extension and intension, then measures it accurately, builds a unified framework of the quality of economic growth.The quality of economic growth refers to the inherent nature and the law of economic growth, including the structure of economic growth, stability of economic growth, welfare distribution, and the cost of resources and the environments. Based on the extension and intension of quality of economic growth, this paper builds the index of quality of economic growth, which constitutes 28 basic indicators. Principal Component Analysis is used here to determine the weight of the target, Additionally, mean value treatment is also used to eliminate the index dimension and covariance matrix of basic indices acts as input variables, as a result ,we can avoid the deviation caused by standardized methods and the correlation coefficient matrix. Measuring results from our study shows that the quality of China’s economic growth has been improved to a certain extent in overall level and regional level from 1978 to 2007, but it is very different among the provinces and municipalities.Optimization in the structure of economic growth, enhance the stability of economic growth, improvement in welfare, improvement in efficiency of resource use and ecological environments will contribute to the quality of economic growth. By empirically analyzing Chinese provincial panel data from 1978 to 2007,we find the estimation results of our model is well consistent with the conclusions from theoretical study: the quality index variables of economic growth are significantly positive, furthermore, our results also find the economic growth structure in China’s transition period, the economic growth stability, distributions of welfare change achievements, resource utilization and cost of the ecological environment have significantly positive relationships with the quality of economic growth. Though China’s economic development has entered a new stage and the quantity of economic growth is in the ever-expanding period, it is still necessary to continuously adjust the structure of economic growth, maintain the stability of economic growth, improve welfare level of economic growth as well as its achievements distributions, and improve the efficiency of utilizing resources and reduce the costs of eco-environments. In short, our final target is to achieve simultaneous progress in the quantity and quality of economic growth, and keep a long-term sustainability of economic development.更多还原