【作者】 刘艳；

【导师】 李树民；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 世界经济， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 失业问题是一个世界性难题,不仅是发达国家、发展中国家,还是转型国家都存在比较严重的失业现象。随着我国经济改革的深化,经济结构正在经历前所未有的调整,大规模、突发性的失业问题逐渐出现。值得强调的是,我国是世界上劳动力供给最为丰富的国家,能否把丰富的劳动力资源转化为经济资源并加以有效利用,将在相当长的时间内关系到社会的和谐稳定,以及经济增长的可持续性发展问题。对于拥有世界上最丰富的劳动力资源,但是社会保障制度尚不健全、不完善,并且就业压力巨大的中国而言,“高增长高失业”这种问题对国民经济持续发展与社会稳定的负作用更大,甚至可能是致命的。失业不仅造成资源的巨大浪费,影响经济增长的可持续性等经济问题,而且会带来失业增加,人们收入增长迟缓,生活困难等社会问题,引起人们群众的不满,造成社会的不安定与动荡。因此,现阶段中国最突出的经济发展矛盾是就业问题,同时也是最不稳定的社会矛盾。解决这一问题也是世界最大的发展难题,这成为本文研究主题和内容的最直接动因。本文以我国经济体制转型时期的典型特征为出发点,思维逻辑展开如下:在对失业问题进行范式归纳与比较分析的基础上,通过对现实失业登记与统计相关数据的观察与分析,采用新的方法细致地测算了我国城镇失业率和农村剩余劳动力,由此指出我国失业问题潜在的严重性。在此基础上,本文进一步指出我国的失业与就业问题出现了与其他国家不一样的异化特征,这主要表现在以下两点:第一,传统“奥肯定律”在中国运行轨迹的非线性性质。首先,本文在对中国经济增长情况和中国城镇登记失业率进行了总体的描述,从直观的数据观察来看,中国经济对传统的“奥肯定律”模式出现了偏离状况。然后,本文在对传统奥肯定律方程进行非对称性设定的基础上,采用门限估计法和HODRICK-PRESCOTT滤波分析法,通过加入城镇登记失业率变动的滞后项,构建了一种经典奥肯方程的扩展形式,即奥肯定律修正模型。本文利用1978-2007年中国经济增长率和城镇登记失业率的数据回归得出,无论从拟合优度还是从对原始数据所含信息的利用程度上来看,非线性模型均远远优于线性模型。可以认为,我国的经济增长率和失业率间存在着显著的非线性关系,即在我国当前的转型经济下,“奥肯定律”表现出更为复杂的非线性化特点。而这种非线性的表现形式与我国经济转型期的典型特征有关。第二,就业弹性系数的非规律性和强波动性。在中国三大产业的产出弹性中,第二产业产出就业弹性和第三产业产出就业弹性在很大程度上符合高增长、高就业和低增长、低就业的规律。但随着我国资本深化和技术进步,资本投资带来的就业却是越来越少了,也即资本就业弹性是递减的。我国近年来对外贸易发展迅速,但对外贸易对劳动力的吸纳能力也越来越弱,对外贸易就业弹性也是递减的。本文指出对此问题应该一分为二地分析,不能进行“一刀切”式的衡量:一方面,在排除统计口径差异等干扰因素之后,中国近30年来经济高速增长过程中是存在较大程度的就业增长的,在经济不断趋向成熟的过程中,就业弹性在任何国家中都会出现逐渐减小的趋势。直接断言我国有关“高增长低就业”是失之偏颇的。应该承认,中国经济增长对就业岗位是具有显著拉动作用的。然而,另一方面,中国经济高增长过程中就业弹性在一些经济发展阶段中会显得偏低,且波动性较强。本文的相关数据分析支持了以上分析。在此基础上,本文依托我国经济体制转型的制度背景,尝试探究现象背后的经济学逻辑原因。在对原因进行探寻时,本文集中从经济体制改革、工业化进程中的二元经济结构、经济增长方式转变、经济结构调整、经济相对过剩和知识性失业等方面的因素入手,尝试部分地解释我国经济增长和失业问题出现异化的原因。当然,本文所分析的几种因素可能只是部分地揭示了我国失业问题的异化特征。值得指出的还有,本文所指出的若干层面的转型特征与失业的关联分析中,各因素并不是单独地发生作用,而是作为我国复杂转型系统中的相互联系、相互作用的整体因素而对失业产生特定的影响。综合而言,我国在经济转型期出现了城镇就业增长下降、失业问题恶化的异常现象,这与我国的经济转型期的各种典型特征是分不开的。在政策建议上,我国应该从构建失业统计制度开始,建立统一有效的劳动市场,促进经济结构调整和优化,转变经济增长方式,促进非正规就业,合理开发人力资本以及建立失业风险预警机制等。当然,解决失业问题是一个涉及经济系统各个层面的复杂工程,这就需要我国政府及各个阶层不懈的努力发展和进步。更多还原

【Abstract】 Unemployment Phenomenon is a worldwide problem. That’s true for not only the developed countries, but for the developing countries or countries, especially for the transitional countries. With the deepening of reform and open policy, the economic structure has undergone unprecedented restructuring in the history of China. At the same time, large-scale unexpected unemployment problem begins to appear, which we called "flood of laid-off". It is worth to emphasize that our country has the most abundant supply of labor in the world, and it will be related to the social harmony and stability for a long time, as well as economic growth sustainability to put the wealth of labor resources into economic development. With the possession of largest labor resources in the world, the imperfect social security system, and Chinese enormous employment pressure, the dilemma of high growth with high unemployment rate will the generate some negative effects to our sustainable development of the national economy and social stability. For those manpower, to be unemployed is not only a huge waste of labor resources, but also affecting the sustainability of economic growth and the increasing of people’s incomes. To some extent, unemployment will give rise to the dissatisfaction and turbulence of the masses of people, which is harmful to the social harmony. Therefore, employment problem is not only a comparatively prominent economic contradiction, but also an unstable social and political contradiction at this stage of China. Solution to this problem is a challenge for each country in the world. This is also the direct driving force for me to choose this research subject.In this dissertation, I grasp some important and basic transitional characteristics of China closely to spread out the analysis. The logical sequence is as follows. Through the induction and comparative analysis of three different paradigms about unemployment research, and the considerate observation of Chinese basic data, I calculate the real unemployment rate in urban areas and the number of rural surplus labors. After that I point out the potential seriousness of the unemployment problem, and then emphasize that the unemployment problem in our country is dissimilated with other countries. In my opinion, the dissimilation can be illustrated by the two characteristics as follows:Firstly, the curve of Okun’s Law performs as an orbit of non-linear nature. First of all, I make a meticulous analysis of China’s economic growth rate and its registered urban unemployment rate in this dissertation. From the overall description of the data, I get a basic conclusion that the increasing rate of GDP is not negative with urban registered unemployment rate, which means that "Okun’s Law" has deviated from its traditional track in China. Then, on the basis of the non-symmetry hypothesis, and using the threshold estimation method and the HP filter analysis, I add the lagged items into the Okun’s equation to construct an extension of the classical equation of Okun’s Law. To be honest, this is a new method to inspect the real performance of Okun curve. One the use of China’s increasing rate of registered urban unemployment and GDP from 1978 to 2007, the regress result reveals that the non-linear model is much better than the linear model. It is reasonable to believe that a kind of non-linear relationship is the related essence between economic growth and unemployment rate in China. That is to say, the Okun’s Law is undergoing some stupendous distortion in our country’s current economic transition.Secondly, the employment elasticity is irregularly and strongly fluctuant. In the three sections of our country, the employment elasticity of the secondly industry and the tertiary industry reflects the rule of high growth high employment and low growth low employment. However, with the capital deepening and technical progress, the capital investment brings less employment opportunities than before, and it also means that the employment elasticity of the capital is declining gradually. In recent years, China’s foreign direct trade has been growing fast, but its ability to provide job positions is getting weaker and weaker, and its elasticity is declining either. However, this dissertation takes a dialectical attitude to this problem, and I reject the stereotyped thinking pattern of one-size-fits-all. On the one hand, our country has an admirable economic growth rate accompanying with comparatively large increasing of employment rate after the reform and open policy. Each country has to confess that the employment elasticity will be getting less and less in the process of economic development with its economy making progress and growing mature. So the dogmatic conclusion of "high growth with low employment" is too biased. We should acknowledge that China’s economy growth plays an important role in providing job positions. On the other hand, in the process of our economy growing, I also have to concede the employment elasticity appears strong fluctuant in some economic period.In order to explain the dissimilated mechanism of employment problem of China, this dissertation keeps a foothold of the transforming characters from planned economy to market economy unlike other countries. During the economic system reforming and industrialization process of China, the particular factors such as the dual economic structure, the transformation of the economic growth mode, the adjusting of economic structure, and the relative surplus of economy and knowledge unemployment, can explain the dissimilation between the economic growth and the unemployment rate to a large extent. It is necessary to note that there is much interrelation tendency among those transforming factors, which means that they are not brought into play respectively, but as a compatible entirety.With the two dissimilated characteristics of employment problem in China, our country should take some measures to solve and relieve. Some feasible policies are as follows: transforming the mode of economic growth, promoting the unofficial employment, developing human resource rationally though professional education, forming the unemployment warning mechanism and so on. Of course, solving the unemployment problem effectively is a systematic project, and it needs a long time to make progress in the growth of economy constantly.更多还原