【作者】 崔海潮；

【导师】 李树民；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 世界经济， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,由于中国制造业迅猛发展,国际竞争力不断增强,在世界制造业中地位也不断上升,从而引发了关于中国世界制造中心问题的激烈讨论。目前,这一争论主要集中在“威胁论”“有益论”“中国是否是世界制造中心”等方面,并且论证多从政治角度出发,以定性判断为主,缺乏理论性、系统性、实证性。实际上,如何以既有理论为基础,更深入、系统地探讨中国中国制造业竞争力和发展路径问题显得尤为重要和迫切。本文用产业转移视角,系统、深入地探讨了世界制造中心演变、特征、条件、规律,并结合产业转移理论建立了产业竞争力评价体系,分析在新一轮世界制造中心演变过程中,中国制造业国际竞争力评价、产业转移趋势及其区域发展战略问题。论文主要拟解决以下五个问题:一是全球制造中心的几次变迁有何历史经验?二是导致产业转移的基本动力与动力机制是什么;三是产业转移受哪些重要因素影响,其影响产业转移的条件与机制是什么;四是产业转移与产业竞争力存在什么内在关联,如何通过基于产业转移要素模型基础上的产业竞争力模型评价世界及中国制造业的发展状况与发展趋势;五是产业转移视角下,推动中国制造业发展的区域战略与措施是什么。论文在论证中主要采用了理论与实证相结合的方法。第一,总结和完善了产业转移的数理模型,并运用数学推导,揭示了产业转移的发生条件及各影响因素对产业转移的作用和内在机理;第二,在产业转移影响因素模型基础上建立了制造业竞争力指标体系,并运用对比研究、数字图表实证法对中国制造业竞争力进行评价,为分析产业转移提供分析基础。第三,主要运用理论演绎、统计论证的方法,总结和分析世界及中国制造业区域发展战略。论文的主要观点与结论如下:第一,世界制造中心地位形成的实质是世界产业转移的结果,即世界制造产业转移过程中沉淀形成产业集聚,最终形成制造产业中心。伴随产业转移影响因素的相对变化,产业转移将会在国家或地域间发生。产业转移是一个动态过程,产业集聚是产业转移的结果。第二,产业转移的根本动因是出于产业利润最大化的追求。就产业微观主体企业而言,出于对利润最大化的理性追求,企业进行跨域跨国的投资与扩张,从而引起产业转移。产业转移的动力机制包括:产业利益级差是产业转移的动力;产业级差赴产业转移发生的基础条件;生产要素流动和产业竞争是产业转移发生的必要条件;成本压力和市场压力是产业转移的基本诱因。第三,产业转移的影响因素可以分为非流动性因素和可流动性因素。市场机制下,流动性因素在国家或区域间的流动方向主要是由国家或区域非流动因素的禀赋差异决定的,非流动因素对产业规模和产业区域转移起着主导性作用。可流动因素的流动可以改变一国或区域要素的供给差异,从而改变区域产业规模,引起产业的区域转移。第四,基于产业转移影响因素基础建立了制造业竞争力模型,并运用此模型分析中国制造业的发展态势、优劣势及产业转移趋向。结果表明,相对于发达国家中国制造业在生产竞争力(劳动力成本)和贸易竞争力方面具有较强的比较优势,但在技术竞争力方面与发达国家具有相当大的差距。相对于东南亚等发展中国家,中国制造业劳动力成本逐渐处于比较劣势,但在其他方面却具有相对优势。因此,世界制造业转移背景下,中国制造业承接和发展必定要采用不同的区域产业发展战略。第五,中国制造业竞争力与产业转移因素优劣势表明,发展知识密集型、技术密集型制造业体系及其采取“外承西移”将成为东部地区承接世界制造业转移的必然趋势与战略选择;中部地区发展部分技术密集产业、资本密集型与劳动力密集型产业体系,采取“承东启西”战略将成为其必然趋势与战略选择;西部地区发展低技术密集型、资本-技术密集型、资源密集型和劳动力密集型产业,采取“承外与特色”战略将成为其必然趋势与战略选择。第六,在世界产业转移背景下,中国制造业应采用国际化发展战略和区域差异化发展战略。中国要提高世界产业转移的吸引力,增强中国制造业竞争力,需要不断提高信息技术,增强技术创新能力,推进产业集群化发展,调整产业结构,促进制造业平衡发展,改善投资环境,创造产业转移与集聚的良好条件。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and open policy, the Chinese manufacturing industry has rapidly developed, the competitive power has unceasingly strengthened, and the status has icreased unceasingly in the world manufacturing industry. Thus it has initiates the discussion about the Chinese world manufacturing center. At present, this argument mainly concentrates in "the deterrence theory" "beneficially theory" "China whether is the world manufacturing center" and so on aspects, and proves from political angle embarking, by the qualitative judgment primarily, lackling theoretical and the systematic characteristic. But in fact, it is more important and urgent.to how to deeply discuss China manufacturing industry competitive power and the development way on the foundation of theory. Based on ,from the industrial shift angle of view, the paper discusses world manufacturing center’s evolve ,the characteristic, the condition, and the rule.At the same time, on the defoutation of the industrial shift theory,the paper establishes the industrial competitive power appraisal system and analyzes successional variation process of world manufacturing center, Chinese manufacturing industry international competitiveness appraisal, industrial shift tendency and area development strategy .The paper mainly attempts to solve the following five problems:First,what is the historical experience of the changes in world industry? Second, what is the basic power and the driving mechanism causing the industrial migration:Third, which important attributes influence the industrial migration, and what is the condition and the mechanism affecting the industrial migration; Fourth, the relations betmeen the industrial migration and the industrial competitive power? How to understand and appraise the development of manufacturing industry of the world and of China through industry competition model based on essential factor on industrial migration.Fifth, under the context of industrial migration, what is the development of the region strategy and measures promoting the Chinese manufacturing industry.The paper mainly adopts the methods of theory and empirical analysis.First,it summaries and consummates the industrial migration model, and uses the model to promulgate the industrial migration occurrence condition and each influencing factor to the industrial migration through inferential reasoning; second, the paper establishes the manufacturing industry competitive power indicator system at the foundation of the industrial migration influencing factor ,and uses the contrast research and digital graph method to appraise the Chinese manufacturing industry competitive power. Third, it mainly utilizes the theory deduction and the statistical proof method to summarize and forecast manufacturing industry development tendency in world and in China.The major points and conclusion is as follows:First, the establishment of China centre of the world manufacturing center is the result of industrial migration. Namely, in the processing of world manufacture industry migration, world manufacture forms the industry to gather and the manufacture industry center finally. With the relative change of the industrial migration influencing factor, the industrial migration occurs in the country or the region. The industrial migration is a dynamic process, and the industry cluster is the result of industrial migration.Second, the industrial migration is the result of the pursue it for industrial maximizum profit. For the profit maximization’s rational pursue, the enterprise carries on transnational investment, thus it causes the industrial migration. The industrial migration’s driving mechanism includes: the industrial benefit difference is the industrial migration’s power; the industrial grading is the basic requirement for industrial migration’s occurrence; the flowing of production’s factors and the industrial competition is the essential conditions for industrial migration’s occurrence; the cost pressure and the market pressure are the industrial migration’s basic causes.Third, the influencing factor of industrial migration may be divided into the non-fluid factor and the fluid factor. Under the market mechanism condition, the fluid factor’s direction in the country or the regional flow is mainly decided by non-flow factor’s talent difference. The non-flow factor’s migration plays a key role in the industrial scale and the industrial region. But flow factor’s flowing may change essential factor supplies’ difference in a country or the region, thus it will cause the industrial region’ migration through changing industry balanced condition.Fourth, the paper has established the manufacturing industry competitive power model based on the industrial migration influencing factor, and uses the model to analyze the Chinese manufacturing industrial development momentum, the superiority and the industrial migration’s trend. China is in inferiority in labor force cost comparing with Southeast Asia developing countries. In the whole, the Chinese manufacturing industry’s international competitiveness mainly displays in product quantity, but not in the technique.Fifth, the competitive power of the Chinese manufacturing industry and its superiority of essential factors the industrial migration indicate that the East region will develop knowledge-intensive industry, the technology-intensive manufacturing industry will adopt the strategy of "receiving industry overseas and migrating to west ", that the Middle region will partially develop technology-intensive manufacturing industry, the capital-intensive industry and the labor-intensive industry and will adopt the strategy of "receiving industry from the East region and migrating to West",that the Western region will develop the low-technology-intensive manufacturing industry, capital - technology-intensive industry, the resource-intensive industry,and the labor-intensive industry.At the same time ,the Western region will adopt the strategy of " receiving industry outside and develop the characteristic industry.Sixth, under the background of world industry migration, the Chinese manufacturing industry should use the international and region variation development strategy. To enhance the attraction for the world industry migration and strengthen China’s competitive power of manufacturing industry, China needs to unceasingly enhance the information technology and technological innovation ability, to advance industry development with industry cluster, to adjust industrial structure, to promote balanced development, and to improve investment environment so as to create a good condition for industry migration and industry cluster.更多还原