中国经济增长模式转型的结构分析

【作者】 谢琦；

【导师】 任保平；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 西方经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 自1978年改革开放以来,经过30年的快速增长,中国经济已经取得了显著的成效。然而,在国民经济快速增长的过程中,也出现了一系列令人深感忧虑的问题,例如,经济结构失衡、贫富差距加大、环境污染、资源短缺、经济安全等。探究这些问题的背后,其中一个重要的原因就是我国现行的经济增长模式还不尽合理,在经济增长过程中片面追求经济增长的速度,忽视国民经济运行中的各种结构比例关系。因此,经济增长模式还没有真正实现由粗放型、数量型向集约型、质量型转变。优化国民经济结构,提高经济增长质量,降低经济增长代价是21世纪中国经济发展过程中关系国计民生的重大战略问题,尤其是在当前国际金融危机背景下更具有重要的现实意义。所以,从中国经济结构视角深入研究中国经济增长模式的转型问题意义重大。因此,本文在对经济增长理论和中国经济增长实践反思的基础上,从经济增长模式结构转型的视角对经济增长理论进行新的阐释,运用计量经济学和统计学的分析方法与分析工具探讨经济增长模式结构转型的内在规定性和量的确定,寻求中国经济增长模式转型的结构路径,从实践上为提高中国经济增长的质量、降低中国经济增长的代价提供对策和建议。本文的主要结论是:中国经济增长与经济结构转型之间存在一定的因果关系,中国经济增长的同时伴随着经济结构的转型。同时,中国经济结构转型也促进了中国的经济增长;中国经济增长与经济结构变化的数量关系表明,经济结构变化对经济增长具有正向效应。因此,加速经济结构转变不仅可以推动经济的总量增长,而且还可以促进经济的协调发展;改革开放以来,中国取得经济增长的主要途径,是通过扩大生产规模、增加投入所获得的。物质资本的积累是改革开放30年来中国经济增长的主要源泉。但是,未来要实现从数量型经济增长模式向质量型经济增长模式的转型,不能单纯依靠物质资本投入来实现,应改善和提升经济结构,提高技术进步水平,逐渐向质量型经济增长模式转型:改革开放以来,从我国经济结构的总体水平来看,经济增长呈现出不断优化的趋势。但是,从经济结构的总体质量来看,我国的经济增长模式尚未发生根本性转变,经济增长依然表现为数量型、结构低级化的特征。虽然经济结构的总体水平不断优化,但是,近年来产业结构仍然以工业为主导,第一产业较为薄弱,第三产业还不发达,需求结构仍然以投资需求和出口需求为主导,消费需求并未成为经济增长的重要驱动力量。因此,要实现经济快速增长,不能仅仅依靠增加生产要素的投入,而是要在总量增长的基础之上,通过加速经济结构转型,促进经济的协调发展。所以,从中国经济结构转变的视角促进经济增长模式的转型是中国未来经济增长的方向,应以经济结构改革提升经济增长质量,促进经济快速、协调、健康增长。本文的创新体现在:以增长经济学和发展经济学的理论为依据,运用结构分析法从经济结构视角研究经济增长模式的转型问题,从供给结构和需求结构及其内部的各种结构关系转变入手全面分析了中国经济增长过程中存在的各种结构问题,揭示出经济结构与经济增长模式转型之间的关系,深入探讨了经济增长模式转型的结构转变机制,阐明改革开放30年来中国经济增长模式转型的内涵与结构性特征;运用计量经济学等实证方法研究了中国经济结构与经济增长模式转型之间的因果关系,测算了中国经济结构对中国经济增长的贡献率;运用因子分析法通过构建综合经济结构指标体系对改革开放以来中国经济结构的发展状态进行了综合评价,对自1978年以来中国经济增长的结构路径进行了深入分析,为政府制定宏观经济政策和推进经济体制改革提供理论依据与对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Our economic growth has been increasing rapidly for thirty years since 1978, but a series of serious issues appeared, such as the unbalance of economic structure, the increasing gap between rich and poor, environmental pollution, shortage of resources, economic security. The causes of these issues are that the pattern of China’s current economic growth is not reasonable, pursuing the rapidity of economic growth and ignoring all sorts of the ratios between the various structures in operation of the national economy. Therefore economic growth has not been really from the extensive number of type to an intensive quality-based transformation. Optimizing the economic structure, improving the quality of economic growth and reducing the costs of economic growth are major strategic issues of the national economy and the people’s livelihood in the process of economic development in China in the 21st century. Especially in the current international financial crisis it has more practical significance. So it is vital to study the transformation of China’s economic growth pattern in term of China’s economic structure.Therefore, this dissertation explains the economic growth theory in term of economic growth structural transformation and explores the inherent requirements and the quantitative relations using the econometric and statistical analysis methods and analytical tools on the basis of economic growth in China’s economic growth theory and the practice of reflection. The goal of the dissertation is to look for the structural path of the economic growth pattern transformation and to provide countermeasures and suggestions of improving the quality of China’s economic growth and reducing the costs of China’s economic growth.The main conclusion is as follows. There are certain causal relationships between China’s economic growth and economic structural transformation. China’s economic growth is accompanied by economic structural transformation. At the same time, China’s economic structural transformation also contributes to China’s economic growth; the quantitative relations of China’s economic growth and economic structural changes show that changes of economic structure has a positive effect on economic growth. Therefore, speeding up economic structural changes can not only promote total economic output growth, but also can promote the coordinated development of economy; since reform and opening up, China has achieved economic growth by means of expanding the production scale and increasing the input. The accumulations of physical capital are main source of economic growth in 30 years of reform and opening up in China. However, in order to achieve the transformation of economic growth from quantity to quality-oriented pattern in the future, physical capital investment cannot be simply relied on, but to improve and upgrade economic structure, and to improve the level of technological progress, and gradually to increase the quality of model-based economy in transition; China’s economic structure shows a trend of continuous optimization from the aggregate level since reform and opening up. However, from the overall quality of the economic structure, the pattern of China’s economic growth has not been a fundamental change, and economic growth is still reflected in the number of type and characteristics of low-level structure. Although the overall level of economic structure is being optimized, the industrial structure is still dominated by industry in recent years, and primary industry is weak, and tertiary industry has developing. The structure of aggregate demand is still dominated by investment demand and export demand, and consumption demand has not become an important driving force. Therefore, in order to achieve rapid economic growth, the increase of input of factors of production cannot be solely relied on but accelerate economic restructuring and promote the coordinated development of economy growth in the total growth basis. So changes in China’s economic structure from the perspective of promoting the transformation of economic growth pattern should be based on economic structural reforms to enhance the quality of economic growth and to promote rapid, coordinated and healthy growth in China’s future direction.The innovation of the dissertation can be embodied in three aspects. First of all, the use of structural analysis of the economic structure is used from the perspective of economic growth pattern transformation according as growth economics and development economics theory. The various structural problems are comprehensively analyzed from the structure of aggregate supply, aggregate demand structure and the internal structures relationship in the course of China’s economic growth. Secondly, the causal relationships are studied between China’s economic structure and the transformation of economic growth pattern. And the China’s economic structure contribution to China’s economic growth rate is calculated by use of econometric methods. Thirdly, the development of state in China’s economic structure is comprehensively evaluated through building comprehensive index systems of economic structure by use of factor analysis method. The structural paths of China’s economic growth are deeply analyzed since 1978, and a theoretical basis and countermeasures are provided for the government to formulate macroeconomic policies and to promote economic reform.更多还原