【作者】 李东序；

【导师】 周祖德； 邓明然；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 城市是人口分布、资源消耗和环境污染的集中区域,随着城市人口急剧增长及城市规模的迅速扩张,资源与环境承载能力对城市发展的约束日益引起人们的普遍关注,城市可持续发展如何与城市资源环境承载力相协调,不仅关系到城市自身未来的命运,也关系到其周边地区能否顺利实现可持续发展目标。基于此,本文旨在根据支撑城市人口及经济社会活动可持续发展的城市关键承载能力要素出发,系统界定城市综合承载力的核心内涵,提炼城市综合承载力的软硬力要素构成,构建城市综合承载结构模型,分析城市综合承载力作用机理,设计城市综合承载力评价指标体系,制订城市综合承载力预警策略,并选择典型目标城市进行实证分析,从而为国家的宏观调控、城市政府的经营管理、城市政府绩效监控以及上级部门绩效考核等提供依据,进而为政府制定、调整和落实城市可持续发展的各项政策措施提供参考。本文主要研究内容如下:第1章主要阐述城市综合承载力研究提出的目的、背景及意义,综合评述城市综合承载力研究相关理论与实践,指出城市综合承载力的研究内容及其实现方法和途径;第2章主要阐释城市综合承载力研究实现的复杂系统理论、城市经济理论、可持续发展理论以及多属性决策理论等城市综合承载力研究的理论基础;第3章主要阐释城市综合承载力的演变,界定城市综合承载力的内涵,分析城市综合承载力的特征,构建城市综合承载力结构模型,分析城市综合承载力系统要素,指出城市综合承载力功用与目标;第4章主要利用复杂系统动态演化机理理论,结合城市综合承载力系统,概述城市综合承载力概念与研究的动态演化,分析城市综合承载力系统的动态演化条件、动力、途径和图景,指出城市综合承载力动态演化的影响因素,提出城市综合承载力的系统演化模式和功能演化模式;第5章主要根据复杂系统协同与耦合机理理论,分析城市综合承载力系统协同的内容与体系,构建城市综合承载力系统耦合模型,分析城市综合承载力要素耦合机制;第6章主要根据复杂系统的脆性崩溃机理理论,结合城市综合承载力系统,阐释城市综合承载力脆性的内涵与特性,分析城市综合承载力脆性要素与崩溃过程,分析城市综合承载力的崩溃状态及其现实应用:第7章主要提出城市承载力评价的思想与原则,设计相应评价指标,确定基于TFAHP的多属性决策权重,形成城市综合承载力评价体系;第8章主要构建城市综合承载力主要预警指标,利用主成分分析法提炼关键预警指标,通过多元回归分析构建多元回归模型,通过回归模型预测城市综合承载力变化,以此为基础提出相应的城市综合承载力预警提升策略与方案;第9章主要利用城市综合承载力相关理论,结合典型承载力目标城市——北京,指出其城市承载力构成与现状,主要以水资源为重点,利用评价体系分析其现状与问题,从而制定相应的调控提升策略;第10章主要对全文研究内容进行总结,指出论文主要研究创新、研究局限以及未来研究展望。本文研究的创新,主要表现在以下方面,提出了城市综合承载力结构模型,界定了城市综合承载力系统构成要素;分析了城市综合承载力系统的动态演化、协同耦合和脆性崩溃等复杂系统机理;设计了基于TFAHP的城市综合承载力评价体系;构建了基于主成分分析法的预警评价与动态预测模型,提出了城市综合承载力预警策略与方案。因此,本研究通过城市综合承载力基本框架界定、结构模型构建、系统机理分析、整体综合评价、预警提升策略及实证分析应用等形成了城市综合承载力系统理论体系,相信该理论体系将会对我国城市综合承载力理论研究和城市经营管理实践都会起到非常重要的理论借鉴和现实指导作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urban is the concentrated area of the population distributing,the resources consumption and the environment pollution.With the dramatic growth of the urban population and the fast extending of the city scale,it is gradually becoming the common focus of the society that the carrying capacity of the resources and environments restrict the development of the city.The harmony between the urban sustainable development and the carrying capacity of the resources and environments not only affect the future destiny of the urban,but also relate to the realization of the sustainable development objectives of its peripheral region.Based on above,the dissertation aim at systematically defining the core concept of Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity(UCCC),refining the main factors of UCCC, conceiving the structural model of UCCC,analyzing the function mechanisms of UCCC,designing the evaluation indicators framework,making out the counterpart early-warning tactics and selecting target city to make the positive research according to the key elements to support the sustainable development of the urban population and social economic activities.Thus it can provide the macro regulation,the government management,the performance appraisal and the policies make-out with the theoretic reference.The.main content of the dissertation can be concluded the follows.Chapter 1 firstly illustrated the research aim,background and significance.Secondly,it systematically reviewed the relevant literature.Finally,it indicated the research content and its realization methods of UCCC.Chapter 2 mainly demonstrated the theoretic base for the research of UCCC such as Complicated System(CS),Urban Economic (UE),and Sustainable Development(SD) and Multi-attribute Decision(MAD) theories and so on.Chapter 3 mainly introduced the evolution of UCCC,defined the concept of UCCC,analyzed the characters of UCCC,conceived the structural model and its elements and indicated that the functions and objectives of UCCC.Chapter 4 concluded the dynamic evolution of the concept and research of UCCC,analyzed the conditions,the motivations,the ways and the scenarios of UCCC,indicated that the factors to affect the dynamic evolution of UCCC and put forth the evolution modes of system and function of UCCC according to the dynamic evolution mechanism of CS. Chapter 5 firstly analyzed the synergy content and framework of UCCC,then conceived the mutual action model of UCCC,finally analyzed the mutual action mechanisms according to the synergy and mutual action mechanism of CS.Chapter 6 mainly illustrated the concept and characters of the brittleness of UCCC,analyzed the elements and process of the collapse resulted from the brittleness,and indicated the collapse appearance of UCCC and its application according to the brittleness collapse of CS.Chapter 7 mainly put forth the core idea and principles of the evaluation of UCCC,designed the counterpart evaluation indicators,determined the power of each indicator based on Triangular Fuzzy Number Analytical Hierarchy Process(TFAHP) and then formed the integration appraisal framework.Chapter 8 firstly conceived the main early-warning indicators of UCCC,secondly refined the key indicators through Main Composition Analysis Method(MCAM),thirdly conceived Multiple Variable Return Model(MVRM) to forecast the changes of UCCC,thus put forth the counter tactics and plans to enhance UCCC.Chapter 9 put UCCC theories into practice to make the positive research.The dissertation indicated the concurrent situations of Beijing city that is a typical target city,analyzed its main problems based on the water carrying capacity through the evaluation system,and then made the counter tactics. Chapter 10 firstly concluded the whole dissertation content,and then indicated the main innovations,the limitations and the prospects.The main innovations can be concluded the follows.Firstly,the dissertation put forth the structural model and elements of UCCC,Secondly,the dissertation analyzed such mechanism of UCCC as dynamic evolution,synergy mutual action and brittleness collapse and so on.Thirdly,the dissertation designed the evaluation framework of UCCC based on TFAHP.Finally,the dissertation conceived the early-warning evaluation model and dynamic forecasting model based on MCAM and MVRM. Additionally,the dissertation put forth the counter tactics and plans to enhance UCCC.Therefore,The dissertation conceived the whole theoretic system of UCCC through defining the basic framework,conceiving structural model,analyzing system mechanisms,evaluating UCCC,making out the enhancing tactics of UCCC and doing the positive research and so on.I believed that the theoretic system will not only provide the relevant theory research with the theoretic reference,but also instruct the specific practice of UCCC in our country.更多还原