【作者】 聂凯；

【导师】 赖明勇；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 产业经济学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 农村市场是我国范围最广的市场,极具发展潜力,高效的农村流通是繁荣农村市场、促进农村经济稳定持续发展的重要保证。目前我国农村流通体系发展滞后,商品流通成本居高不下,商品质量参差不齐,不能满足日益增长的农村消费市场需求。本文根据对我国农村流通产业的现状分析,发现由于市场进入壁垒低,服务产品差别化程度低,缺乏明确的专业化分工与协作体系,致使农村流通产业市场集中度低、过度竞争和企业效率低下等问题突出。在市场经济条件下,农村流通产业需要扩大规模,提升服务质量,以适应不断扩大的农村消费市场,满足需求,并通过刺激消费影响生产规模,促进生产,从而真正形成“大生产、大市场、大流通”。这就要求流通产业组织必须根据市场经济的要求和流通产业的特点进行调整和优化,以合理的流通市场结构提高流通效益,以科学的流通行为提高流通效率。本文基于经济学原理、产业组织理论、现代物流理论和车辆调度优化理论,理论联系实际,综合国内外相关研究状况和目前存在的不足,采用定性和定量分析相结合、理论研究与应用实证研究相结合的复杂系统的研究方法,利用博弈论、Petri网等分析工具,科学地研究分析农村流通产业组织优化目标、农村流通一体化、农村流通企业物流外包、农村流通产业组织优化中的技术创新等若干问题,为达到农村流通产业组织优化目标,提出以具备连锁经营特点的农村流通企业作为农村流通一体化的运作主体,以村镇连锁经营双向配送模式作为农村流通一体化的运作模式,并以车辆调度优化理论在农村流通中的应用为例,说明了在创新扩散过程中应充分考虑农村流通的特点。并且本文基于以上的研究内容给出了相应的政策建议。本文的创新点主要体现在以下几个方面:(1)提出了我国农村流通产业组织优化的原则和目标,并给出了相应的政策建议。本文基于产业组织理论的SCP分析框架,分析了我国农村流通业的市场结构,市场行为和市场绩效,针对我国农村流通业存在的集中度小,壁垒低,规模小等问题,参考国外发达国家流通产业组织发展的趋势,从流通主体、流通方式和流通技术三个方面提出了我国农村流通产业组织优化的目标。具体来说是大力发展村镇连锁经营等类现代流通主体,推行物流配送、物流外包等现代流通方式,运用现代物流技术提高流通效率;并在分析研究村镇连锁经营配送体系、流通企业物流外包、农村配送中车辆调度优化理论的基础上,提出优化农村流通产业组织的政策建议。(2)从流通一体化运作主体、流通一体化运作模式和流通一体化运作结果等方面对农村流通一体化进行了详细阐述。通过分析农村现有的流通主体,根据村镇连锁经营的内涵及特点,认为具备村镇连锁经营特点农村流通企业是农村流通一体化运作的现实主体;针对传统流通模式的种种缺陷,结合农民既是消费者又是生产者的特点,提出了村镇连锁经营的双向配送模式,将农产品流通中的农产品收集环节并入到传统模式下的配送体系中,为农村流通企业提供了一种新型的流通规模扩张方式,构建了农村流通一体化的运作模式;利用了Petri网等系统性能分析方法,基于随机Petri网就配送系统的建模与分析展开研究,建立配送系统的随机Petri网模型,并利用随机Petri网和马尔柯夫链同构的关系,获得了传统配送模式和双向配送模式下的农村流通的市场绩效。(3)建立了农村物流外包方和第三方物流企业的合作博弈模型,并给出双方合作博弈策略。研究了信息不对称条件下农村流通企业物流外包双方的合作博弈问题,在村镇连锁经营物流外包过程中,在第三方物流企业的物流运作成本和管理成本为不对称信息的条件下建立了物流外包方和第三方物流企业的合作博弈模型,并利用最大值原理求得双方合作博弈策略,并在假设代理人为风险中性的前提下进一步分析了物流外包方的风险成本、激励成本和总代理成本。(4)以车辆调度优化理论在农村流通中的应用为例,说明了在创新扩散过程中应充分考虑农村流通的特点。技术创新的目的在于实现更高的流通效率、更优的流通功能,农村流通产业组织优化中离不开技术创新。农村流通企业由于是实力所限,应倾向于选择在其他产业或者城市流通企业吸收引进新技术,利用创新扩散提高自己的技术水平,并在创新扩散的同时注重创新的修正与改进,以真正适合农村流通的特点。农村流通中的陌生户问题影响了车辆调度优化理论的应用,本文针对目前车辆调度优化方法中对陌生户问题考虑的不足,引入陌生度和陌生系数两个新的参数,建立基于陌生户问题的车辆调度优化改进模型,并利用车辆调度优化中常用的C-W算法对模型进行了验证计算,计算结果证明了改进模型的可行性和有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rural market, the largest domestic market in China, has a great potential development. Highly-efficient circulation is an important condition for prospering rural market and promoting the sustainable development of rural economy. At present, the development of domestic rural circulation system lags behind with the high cost of circulation commodities and the uneven quality of circulation goods, and it is not able to meet the growing needs of the rural consumer market. According to the status analysis of rural circulation industry in China, this paper finds that because of low market entry barriers, low level of product differentiation service, and lack of professional division and cooperation system, the rural circulation industry encounters a series of problems such as Low degree of market concentration, excessive competition and inefficiency. Under market economy conditions, the rural circulation industry needs to expand the scale and upgrade the quality of services in order to meet the consumers’ demand and promote production. In this way, "Huge Production, Huge Market and Huge circulation" can be established. Therefore, the rural circulation industry organization needs to be adjusted and optimized in accord with the requirements of market economy and the characteristics of domestic circulation industry. The circulation profits can be improved with a reasonable market structure and the circulation efficiency can be increased with modern science and technology. Based upon the theories of economy, industry organization, logistics and vehicle scheduling optimization, and with the use of standardized analysis and empirical analysis, summarized methods combined with the logic and comparative research methods, this paper probes into several problems including the target of organization optimization of rural circulation industry, unified rural circulation, logistics outsourcing of rural circulation enterprise, and technology innovation in organization optimization of rural circulation industry. According to the optimization targets, this paper proposes that the rural circulation enterprises serve as the main member in unified rural circulation with the pattern of two-way distribution in rural chain operation. And in the view of Stochastic Petri Net model of distribution system, logistics outsourcing model of cooperation between the two sides, Game under asymmetric information, the paper analyses the Stranger Problem in optimization of vehicle scheduling in rural distribution in order to emphasize the character of technology innovation in organization optimization. At last, based on the studies mentioned above, policies for optimizing domestic rural circulation industry organization are brought forward.The originality of this paper falls under the following categories:(1) The principles and targets for optimizing domestic rural circulation industry organization are put forward, and the corresponding policies are given. Based on the SCP framework, this paper analyzes the market structure, market behavior and market performance of domestic rural circulation industry. Facing problems in circulation industry including small concentration, low barriers and small scale, this paper proposes the optimization target of domestic rural circulation industry organization from three aspects: circulation conductor, circulation method and circulation technology. The Specific target includes developing modern circulation conductors such as rural chain operation, applying modem circulation methods such as logistics distribution and logistics outsourcing, and improving the circulation efficiency with modern logistics technology. And the policies for optimizing domestic rural circulation organizations are brought based on the studies of expanding of methods of circulation scales of rural chain operation, analysis of distribution structure and system of rural chain operation, logistics outsourcing of rural circulation enterprises, and optimization of vehicle scheduling in rural distribution.(2) Unified rural circulation is proposed in some aspects including main unified operation member, unified operation mode and unified operation results. By anglicizing the present operation member of rural circulation, this paper proposes that the rural chain operation enterprise should be the main member of unified rural circulation. Furthermore, this paper analyses the problems and defects of present distribution system in domestic rural chain operation based on the concepts and features of the chain operation, and proposes two-way distribution structure with the features that the farmers are not only the consumers but also the producers. In the two-way distribution, the collection of agricultural products is integrated in the traditional distribution structure. And the new expanding method can be provided to rural circulation enterprises. This paper also establishes a model of the system based on Stochastic Petri Nets (SPN). By utilizing the mathematic Characteristics of SPN, a method has been proposed for quantitative evaluating the performance of the distribution system. The parameters of the system such as per distribution amount, distribution process weight and the actual loading rate were achieved.(3) Since rural logistics outsourcing and the third-party logistics enterprises play a cooperation-game, this paper establishes a game model and obtains two-side cooperation strategy. After analyzing the game in logistics outsourcing of country circulation firm’s logistics outsourcing in condition of asymmetric cost information, this paper sets up the cooperative game model in condition that TPL buyer can’t observe the TPL provider’s logistics operation and management cost, and applies maximum principle and principal-agent theory to obtain the players’ double-winning cooperative strategies.Then this paper compares the risk cost, incentive cost and total agency cost of TPL buyer in assume of the agent is risk-neutral.(4) This paper explains that the technology innovation in organization optimization must satisfy the characters of rural circulation. The purpose of technology innovation in circulation system is higher circulation efficiency and greater circulation ability. Because of the lack of funds and strength, the rural circulation enterprises should intended to attract and improve existing theologies. Also, this paper gives an example that the theory of vehicle scheduling optimization should be improved when it is applied in rural circulation. This paper discusses the "stranger phenomenon" in rural logistics distribution, and establishes an improved optimization model of logistics distribution vehicle scheduling based on "Stranger Problem", which the common vehicle scheduling model does not consider, by defining two parameters named "Strange Degree" and "Strange Coefficient". An experimental computation is finished by using improved C-W algorithm, and the computational results prove the feasibility and efficiency of the improved optimization model.更多还原