【作者】 谢建敢；

【导师】 王耀中；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 世界经济全球化和金融自由化的不断深入促使银行业国际化进程不断加快,对相关国家乃至国际金融和世界经济均产生了深远的影响。尤其对发展中国家来说,银行业国际化规模不断扩大,激烈的同业竞争和巨额的国际资本流动,对包括银行业、货币市场、外汇市场、资本市场在内的整个金融体系的影响日益凸显,它不但关系到银行业本身的利益,而且直接或间接关系到这些国家内外均衡目标的实现,并在一定程度上影响东道国的金融稳定和宏观经济利益。因此,对银行业国际化的理论基础、动因、进程和效应等方面进行研究,客观上有助于进一步掌握其发展态势和规律,具有一定的理论和现实意义,这是此文研究的意图。本文在银行业国际化和金融稳定基础理论的框架上,首先,从金融服务贸易开放和国际资本流动这两个角度,分析了银行业国际化的动因、进程、特征和发展趋势,探讨了银行业国际化对发展中国家金融、经济的影响机理。然后,对部分发展中国家银行业国际化与金融稳定的关系进行了实证分析,并进一步检验了银行业国际化与东道国银行业效率、经济增长的相关关系。最后,文章分析了我国银行业国际化对金融稳定的影响,运用多元回归模型实证分析我国银行业国际化与银行效率的相关关系,并提出了应对措施。第一部分即第一章,为导论部分,阐述了论文研究的背景和意义,明确了相关概念,对论文的研究范围进行了界定,明确了研究思路和方法,围绕论文的主题进行了文献综述。文章认为银行业国际化是指在国际生产要素流动背景下,以货币的国际化为基础,以资本的跨国流动为纽带,通过各国货币政策的国际传递与协调,银行业由封闭走向开放的过程和发展趋势,以实现金融资源在世界范围内的优化配置。金融稳定是效率和风险的有机统一,是广义上的稳定。第二部分包括第二、第三章,从金融服务贸易、国际资本流动这两个角度对银行业国际化和金融稳定的基础理论体系进行了较为全面的阐述,即以国际贸易理论、资本流动理论、对外直接投资理论、产业组织理论、金融稳定理论为基础,对银行业国际化的动因等问题进行了多方面分析,研究了银行业国际化与金融稳定的关系,并探讨了银行业国际化的历史进程、特征和发展趋势。文章认为国际贸易和国际投资的发展是银行从事国际化经营的两个重要前提,也是加速银行业国际化进程的客观因素。有关银行业国际化问题研究的视角是多方面的,主要从金融服务和国际投资这两个角度切入,但是往往离不开国际资本流动这一根主线。银行业国际化进程中,真正意义的银行业国际化是从二战以后开始的,认为欧洲美元市场的兴起、金融创新、金融自由化等因素推动了银行业国际化的发展。随着上世纪80年代后期金融自由化浪潮的兴起,银行业国际化范围快速地扩展到亚洲、拉美和中东欧等许多国家。第三部分包括第四、第五章,分别从金融服务贸易自由化和国际资本流动的角度,分析了银行业国际化影响发展中国家金融稳定的微观和宏观作用机理。具体地说,在银行业国际化初期,由于发展中国家对资本流动一般实行严格的控制,大规模的利率风险和汇率风险形成的可能性不大,因此引发金融风险的可能性相对很小,外资银行对东道国银行业的冲击主要是会在一定程度上影响国内银行业效率,集中表现在银行业市场份额的争夺和竞争力对比方面。因此应准确地把握好对外开放度,只有适度进入并保持一定的进入壁垒才是提高银行业资源配置效率的必要条件。随着银行业国际化程度不断提高,国际资本流动的速度和规模得到了相应的提高,巨额的资金在国内和国际金融市场流动,通过利率、汇率、信贷配给等渠道对东道国的资本账户和金融账户产生不利影响,从而直接或间接地给东道国的产品市场、货币市场、外汇市场、资本市场和国际收支等带来巨大的冲击,可能引发货币危机,进而影响东道国银行业和金融的稳定。第四部分为第六章,首先,通过建立金融服务贸易自由化与金融稳定和银行业效率关系模型,运用近年来多个发展中国家的相关数据实证检验了银行业国际化与银行稳定、货币稳定的关系,分析结果表明,银行业国际化与银行稳定、货币稳定之间没有显著的相关关系。然后,实证分析了银行业国际化对东道国银行业效率和经济增长的影响,实证结果表明,市场的开放与银行业的资产收益率、资本收益率之间具有很强的相关关系,但与银行费用成本、利息收入比和经济增长率之间的相关关系不显著。这说明,市场的开放可以促进银行业之间的竞争,在一定程度上提高东道国的银行效率,但对经济增长的影响具有不确定性。第五部分包括第七、第八章,介绍了我国银行业国际化的历史进程和现状,分析了银行业国际化对我国银行业市场结构、市场行为和市场绩效的影响,并在此基础上,以我国银行业数据为样本,通过建立多元回归模型检验我国银行业国际化对经营效率的影响。实证分析表明,在我国银行业国际化过程当中,四大国有商业银行的业绩反而受到了不利的影响,而股份制银行的业绩则得到了稳步的提高,其原因和我国银行业典型的寡头垄断特征以及国有商业银行特殊的地位有关。最后,针对我国银行业整体竞争力不足以及金融不稳定因素的情况,认为目前和今后的主要问题是要处理好市场开放与提高效率和金融稳定的关系,夯实我国金融稳定的宏观基础尤为关键。具体地说,主要应从两方面入手:一方面,为了提高我国银行业的效率和竞争力,必须从改革国内银行业固有的市场结构入手,降低进入壁垒,培育和发展多元化的银行产权形式,打破现有的寡头垄断格局,改变不合理的市场结构;尽快建立存款保险制度;完善银行业市场退出的法律程序;完善国内银行治理结构。另一方面,为了保持我国金融的宏观稳定,不能仅仅从银行业开放的角度进行分析,我国应该从财政货币政策、汇率和金融自由化的顺序等多方面入手进行防治。具体来讲,我国当前应该综合运用财政货币政策实现经济的内外部均衡目标;实施循序渐进的开放战略;加快推进利率市场化改革的步伐;建立具有更大弹性的人民币汇率形成机制;逐步开放资本账户。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the constant deepening of the world economy globalization and financial liberalization, the pace of the banking internationalization process has been accelerated, which has resulted in a far-reaching influence on the countries related and even the international finance and the world economy. Especially in the point of view of the developing countries, with the continuous expanding scale of the banking internationalization, the keen inter-bank competition and large amount of international capital flowing has brought a constant and remarkable influence on their financial systems including the bank industry, the money market, the capital market and the foreign exchange market. It is concerned not only with the interests of the bank industry itself, but also with the realization of those countries’ goals of internal and external economic equilibrium directly or indirectly. And then will impose an impact, to a certain extent, on the host countries’ finance stability and interests of the macroeconomy. Therefore, the study on the theory base, causes, process and effects concerning the banking internationalization will help us to have a further grasp of its development trend and law and will possess a profound theoretical and realistic significance, which is the intention of this dissertation.Based on the basic theories concerning the banking internationalization and finance stability, this dissertation, in the first place, analyzes, from the angles of financial service openness and international capital flow, the banking internationalization’s causes, process, characteristics and development trend. Then it further explores the internationalization’s impact mechanism and effects on the developing countries’ finance and economy. And then it carries on an empirical analysis on the relationship between the banking internationalization and the finance stability of some developing countries. After that, we empirically examine the interrelated relationship between the host countries’ banking internationalization and the bank industry’s efficiency and economic growth. Finally, it attempts to summarize China’s banking internationalization’s influence on its finance stability and bring forward the relevant measures.The first part (Chapter1), which is the introduction, clarifies the dissertation’s study background, significance, defines some related concepts and explains the scope and methods for further study. And then it reviews the literature in the light of the subject of this dissertation. In this chapter, it is put forward that under the background of the international production factors movement, based on the monetary internationalization, with transnational flow of international capital as the link and by means of the international transmit and coordination of the monetary policy, the banking internationalization is defined as a process or a development trend which trends towards openness from a state of closeness in a bid for the optimal allocation of financial resources around the world. Moreover, in a broader sense, finance stability in the context of this dissertation is an organic unity between efficiency and risk.The second part (Chapter2- Chapter3), from the two angles of financial service and international capital flow, makes a systematic and comprehensive exposition of the theory base on the banking internationalization and finance stability, that is, we have presented an overall analysis on such related topics as the causes of the banking internationalization based on the related theories such as International Trade, Capital Movement, International Investment, Industrial Organization, Financial Stability and so on. Then we study the relationship between the banking internationalization and finance stability. And then the dissertation reviews the banking internationalization’s historic process, characteristics and development trend. In this chapter, the dissertation puts forward that the development of international trade and investment are the two important premises for banks to engage in international business and also the objective elements to accelerate the process of the banking internationalization. Although the angles of view from which to study the above-mentioned issue are diversified, financial service and international investment are usually the dominant angles with the international capital flow as the masterstroke. As for the process, the banking internationalization, in a real sense, came with after the world war II It is such factors as the rising of the Euro-dollar market, the financial innovation and liberalization and so on that have promoted the development of the banking internationalization. Particularly, in the wave of financial liberalization in the late 1980s, the scope of banking internationalization expanded rapidly to many countries in Asia, Latin America and the Middle and Eastern Europe.The third part (Chapter4- Chapter5), from the two angles of financial service trade liberalization and international capital flow, illustrates respectively . the micromechanism and macromechanism concerning the banking internationalization’s impact on the finance stability of the developing countries. In general, at the initial stage of the banking internationalization, owing to the fact that the developing countries usually have strict control over the international capital flow, it is not possible to incur large-scale interest risk and exchange rate risk. Accordingly, there’s little probability of giving rise to financial risks relatively. And the major effect of the foreign banks’ entry on the domestic banking is that those foreign banks will usually influence, to a certain degree, the efficiency of the host countries’ bank industry. This can be seen most clearly in the competition of banking market share and the contrast of the power of competitiveness. Therefore it is necessary to master the opening degree. Only the moderate entry of the foreign banks and the necessary market entry barriers are the indispensable prerequisites to raise the allocation efficiency of banking resources. As the degree of the banking internationalization rises continuously, the speed and scale of international capital flow increases accordingly, large amount of the above-mentioned funds flowing in the domestic and international financial markets will probably bring about unfavorable influences on the host countries’ capital account and financial account by means of such channels as interest, exchange rate and financial credit. And then will possibly have a huge and direct or indirect impact on the host countries’ product market, money market, foreign exchange market, capital market and balance of payments. Such a kind of impact will probably result in a monetary crisis which will affect the banking and financial stability of the host countries.The forth part (Chapter6), by means of setting up models concerning financial service liberalization, financial stability and banking efficiency, examines firstly the relationship among the banking internationalization and banking stability and currency stability based on the associated panel data of dozens of developing countries for the past few years. And we’ve come to the conclusion that the banking internationalization was not positively correlated with the banking stability and currency stability. Then it continues to empirically study the influence of the banking internationalization on the economic growth and banking efficiency of those host countries. The results of the empirical examination indicate a strong correlativity among the openness of banking market and the return on assets, and the return on capital of the banking sectors. But the link among the openness of banking market and banking overheads, net interest revenue and growth seems to be casual. Therefore we conclude that the opening of banking market will promote competition and, to some extent, improve the banking efficiency, but it will not definitely lead to higher economic growth.The fifth part (Chapter7-Chapter8), gives an analysis of the causes, major process and effects of China’s banking internationalization and discusses the corresponding policy measures as to how to improve the competitiveness of China’s bank industry and how to maintain financial stability in the face of keen inter-bank competition from both home and abroad. In this part, we study empirically the banking internationalization’s effects on the bank industry’s operation efficiency through establishing multivariate regression models. The empirical analysis shows that China’s banking internationalization has produced unfavorable effects on the performance of the "Big Four" state-owned commercial banks, whereas the performance of the other share-holding commercial banks has steadily improved. Those results were related to China’s typical oligopoly banking market and the strategic place of the state-owned commercial banks.Finally, aiming at the above facts, it is further pointed out that, at present and in the future, the main issue we are confronted with is to deal with the three relations among opening the banking market, improving efficiency and maintaining financial stability, particularly, it will be critical to solidify the macroeconomic foundation. More specifically, the resolutions to the above puzzles lie in the following two aspects: firstly, for the purpose of increasing the domestic banking’s efficiency and competitiveness, we must proceed with the reforming the industry’s inherent structure, then we should reduce the entry barriers of the banking market, cultivate and foster diversified bank property right structure, break through the present situation of oligopoly and change the unreasonable market structure, establish a deposit insurance system, improve the legal procedures of market exit, perfect the corporate governance of domestic bank industry. Secondly, in order to maintain financial stability, we should further ascertain the specific goals of monetary policy and the direction of a prudent fiscal policy, implement the progressive opening strategy, accelerate the pace of interest rate market-oriented reform, set up the RMB exchange rate regime which allows greater flexibility and open the capital account step by step.更多还原