【作者】 姚德文；

【导师】 张晖明；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 政治经济学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 现代经济增长伴随着产业结构的优化升级,但粗放型增长不是。转轨背景下的政治、经济等制度则解释了中国产业结构差异的相当一部分。产业结构变迁伴随技术升级,这始终是受人关注的领域,新制度经济学的引入,给了人们新的视角。对产业结构的优化升级研究转入到了以市场调节产业结构的转道上来,政府弥补“市场失灵”的核心,在于转换行政和经济管理的职能,为产业发展塑造完善的财产制度、金融制度、人口流迁制度。一个不完善的市场体系制度将使之赢得增长而失去结构,或者赢得结构而失去增长。对上海经济发展与产业结构演进的历史考察,以及对相关制度变量之间的关系的实证检验,支持上述结论,并可以解释上海服务业发展停滞不前的原因。论文第一章阐述了研究的意义、方法及目的。第二章总结了相关文献。第三章构建了一个引进制度因素分析产业结构的理论框架。第四章对钱纳里的人均GNP模型加以运用,测得2005年上海按户籍的人均GDP为8618美元(以2005年美元价格),按常住人口的人均GDP为6318美元,处于工业化的中后期。但始终离市场调节产业的资源配置机制距离尚远。工业化没有市场规则的支撑,不可谓真正的工业化。第五章转入了制度分析,构造了以非国有工业产业值比重为代表的上海市场化指数和合成制度指数,后者的主成份是非国有工业产值比重。实证结果是,非国有工业经济比重变动率对人均GDP增长率短期是正向,而长期是负向的关系。它表明非国有经济只有量的提高,没有质的提高,处于反映较低人均GDP的产业层次中。分离了政府消费的合成指数后发现,人均GDP变动率是不含政府消费的合成指数变动率的格兰杰原因,反之不是;而含政府消费的合成指数变动率是人均GDP增长率的原因。含政府消费的合成制度指数与第二、第三产业成长期均衡关系,而非国有经济则没有关系。从绝对量来看,上海国有工业比重的下降有利于规模以上的工业产值增长,其绝对值弹性为0.6。采用樊纲的中国市场化指数后发现,上海市场化指数提高一个点,同使户籍人均GDP上升6060元,第二产业增长1%,而第三产业相反下降0.09%.这些结果说明上海市场体系制度不完善,非国有经济面临第三产业的很多限制,结合人均GNP模型认为,工业化基础不可持续,政府干预仍然过多。第六章考察了银行贷款与证券融资两种金融制度。发现,银行贷款率与第三产业比重之间不具有长期均衡关系,相互不是格兰杰原因。说明,银行贷款更多地投入到了制造业。股票融资率也不是第三产业比重增加的格兰杰原因,说明没有发挥出促进资源配置的作用,没有改变第三产业的效率。第七章分析了人口流迁制度与户籍制度,用截面数据检验了与人口有关的数据对户籍人均GDP与常住人口GDP的影响。人力资本存量、抚养比与人均资本存量对户籍人均GDP的弹性分别是0.95、0.7与0.68.人力资本弹性最大,加大人力资本投资,可以促进人均GDP提高。而按常住人均GDP计算的各项弹性变小。人口净迁移率有利于户籍人均GDP的上升,而不利于年末常住人均GDP的上升,城镇人口比重的弹性在两种情况下几乎不变,为0.01.第八章在区域范围内,检验了分权改革的收益和成本,特别是产业结构同构和重复建设。政府财政支出不是第三产业发展的格兰杰原因,而是偏向于制造业发展。上海、江苏和浙江相比,上海除了金融服务业、租赁业和商务服务业、农业和采掘业,其它产业相似程度很高。一方面,上海制造业区域同构较严重,另一方面,在上海市政府决策下,金融服务业集中度提高,上海国际金融中心地位逐步建立,上海的城市服务功能逐步完善。综上所述,上海产业结构优化升级,取决于在人均GDP已经超过5000美元前提下,政府职能转变,及市场规则、制度的进一步完善。更多还原

【Abstract】 Modern Economic Growth is often companied with the upgrade and optimization of industry structure, but the extensive growth not. In the process of transition Chinese political, economic institutions can explain the majority of the industry structure differences. The industry structure change is companied by the technology upgrade on which is paid attention usually. But the new institutional economics gives a perspective since it comes into China. The old industry structure theory put more stress on the industry policy and city function to establish the leading industries. But now, the research on the upgrade and optimization of industry structure must switch to the orbit on which the market adjusts the industry structure. The core of the government making up for the market failure lies on the transformation of administrative and economic functions of the government. It must consummate the property rights, financial, population move, decentralization institutions. An incomplete market system institution will make it win the growth but lose the structure, and vice versa.The historical review on the economic development and industry structure evolution, and the demonstration for the relationship between the variables support the above conclusion, and put light on the stagnation of the services industry in Shanghai. Chapter one explains the meaning, approach and goal of this paper. Chapter two summarizes the correlative literature. Chapter three establishes an analysis frame of the industry structure from the institution’s point of view. Chapter four uses Chenery model of GNP per capita to calculate GDP per capita which is 8618 USD by registered permanent residence (according to the price in 2005), and which is 6318 USD by the total population. Shanghai is in the middle and after period of the industrialization. But it is first and last far from the mechanism on which the market adjusts the industry. The industrialization is not called the real industrialization if it is not on the basis of market rules. Chapter Five goes into the institutional analysis. It constructs a market index which is symbolized by the non-state owned industry production value proportion and compositive market index. The later main element is the non-state owned industry production value proportion. The demonstration results are: the relation between GDP per capita and the non-state owned industry production value proportion is positive in the short run, but negative in the long run. It shows that the non-state owned industry grows in the number, but not in the quality. The check after aparting from the government consumption shows that the GDP per capita changing rate Granger causes the compositive index without the government consumption, but not true in the reverse. The compositive index including the government consumption Granger causes GDP per capita growth rate, but not true in the reverse. The compositive index including the government consumption has the stable relation in the long run, but not true for the non-state owned industries. From the absolute value point of view, the decrease of the state owned industry proportion benefits the increase of the industry production value of over-scale. Its elastic coefficient is 0.6. Demonstration using Chinese market index shows that GDP per capita increases by 6060 RMB, the second industry increase by 1% and the Third industry decrease by 0.09% if the market index increases by one point. All the results show that the market system institutions are not perfect , the non-state owned economy faces many obstacles in the entrance into the third industry.Chapter Six reviews the financial institutions about the bank credit and securities market. It shows that the bank credit rate and the third industry proportion does not have the stable relation in the long run, but not Granger cause each other. It shows that the bank credit tends to invest in the manufacturing. The Stock finance proportion also does not Ganger cause the increase of the third proportion. It does not put contribution to the allocation of resources and the efficiency in the third industry. Chapter Seven analyses the relation between the population move and the registered residence institution, using the panel data to check the effect of the population on GDP per capita by registered permanent residence and GDP per capita by total population. The elastic value of the human capital, bring-up rate and the capital stock per capita on GDP per capita are 0.95, 0.7 and 0.68. Investing more on the human capital can inforce the increase of GDP per capita. The three values become smaller for GDP per capita by total population. The net move rate benefits the increase of GDP per capita by registered permanent residence, but not the increase of the GDP per capita by total population. And elastic values of the town population on both cases are almost the same, amount to 0.01.Chapter Eight checks the profit and cost of the decentralization reform, including the same structure and reconstruction. The government fiscal expenditure does not Granger cause the development of the third industry, It focuses on the manufacturing. Comparing with Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Shanghai industries are almost the same apart from the financial services, leasing and business services, agriculture and excavation. On the one hand, Shanghai has the same manufacturing in Yangtse Rive triangle area. On the other hand, with the efforts of the government of Shanghai, The centralization degree of the financial services is going up, the status as the international financial center is boosting up and the services function of the metropolis is coming into being.In summary, The upgrade and optimization of Shanghai industry structure depends on the function transformation of the government and the perfection of the market rules, institutions in the case of GDP per capita which is over 5000 USD.更多还原