我国银行业结构与经济增长研究

【作者】 贺小海；

【导师】 夏大慰；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 产业经济学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 本文的银行业结构是指银行业市场结构。改革开放以来,随着我国银行业从“大一统”的银行体制到“二元”的银行体制再到当前国有商业银行、股份制商业银行、城市商业银行、农村金融机构、中国邮政储蓄银行、外资银行、非银行金融机构等多种金融机构并存发展,其市场结构发生了巨大的变化:从典型的完全垄断向四家国有商业银行的高度垄断再向竞争性较强的寡头垄断转变。而且,需要指出的是,由于各方面原因,我国银行业结构在各地区之间存在着非均衡演变现象。与此同时,一方面我国经济增长与发展取得了举世瞩目的成就,但另一方面我国也是一个地区经济增长差距较大的发展中国家,各地区人均GDP的差距较为悬殊且成扩大趋势。于是,在区域经济协调发展和构建社会主义和谐社会的新形势下,一系列很自然就会被提出的问题是:(1)关于银行业结构与经济增长,国内外有哪些研究成果,存在哪些缺陷与不足,进一步研究方向是什么?(2)改革开放以来,我国银行业结构的总体状况、地区差异与演变趋势具体如何?(3)我国各地区银行业结构与经济增长之间的关系如何?二者之间有无存在非线性关系和区域差异?我国银行业结构的地区差异能否解释地区经济增长差距?(4)我国各地区银行业结构与经济增长之间是否存在长期稳定关系?二者之间是否存在因果关系?因果关系的方向如何?因果关系是否存在区域差异?(5)我国银行业结构的地区差异与演变趋势主要受哪些因素影响?其影响机制和途径具体怎样?(6)我国银行业结构优化的目标取向应该是什么?应该如何优化我国银行业结构?为此,本文将围绕上述系列问题,对我国银行业结构与经济增长之间的关系以及我国银行业结构的影响因素做一系统、科学、合理的研究并在此基础上提出一些具有针对性和可行性的政策建议,以期对我国银行业结构的优化以及银行业结构与经济增长之间的相互适应与良性互动有所裨益。本文共分为7章,其逻辑结构与内容概要如下:第1章为导论。本章提出研究的主要问题,介绍研究内容、研究方法、创新之处与不足之处,是全文的总括性说明。第2章为文献综述。本章致力于回答“关于银行业结构与经济增长,国内外有哪些研究成果,存在哪些缺陷与不足,进一步研究方向是什么”,换言之,本章将全面介绍国内外关于银行业结构与经济增长的研究成果,客观评价其不足与缺陷,并在此基础上提出进一步的研究方向。第3章为我国银行业结构的实证研究。本章主要着眼于回答“改革开放以来,我国银行业结构的总体状况、地区差异与演变趋势具体如何”,试图采用一些操作性较强的衡量指标对我国银行业结构的总体状况和地区差异做一个系统、科学、全面的实证研究。第4章为我国银行业结构与经济增长的实证研究。本章着手解决的主要问题是“我国各地区银行业结构与经济增长之间的关系如何?二者之间有无存在非线性关系和区域差异?我国银行业结构的地区差异能否解释地区经济增长差距”,以我国1987-2004年间各省区数据所构成的省级面板数据,对银行业结构与经济增长之间的关系做了实证研究,进而为关于二者关系的理论研究提供一个来自经济转轨中的发展中大国的证据。第5章为我国银行业结构与经济增长因果关系的实证研究。本章着手解决的主要问题是“我国各地区银行业结构与经济增长之间是否存在长期稳定关系?二者之间是否存在因果关系?因果关系的方向如何?因果关系是否存在区域差异”,以我国1987-2004年间各省区数据所构成的省级面板数据来解决样本量较小的问题,运用面板数据单位根检验、协整分析和误差纠正模型来克服非平稳数据极有可能产生的“谬误回归”问题,对我国各省区银行业结构演变与经济增长的长期和短期因果关系进行实证检验并在此基础上提出一些适用于发展中国家的政策建议。第6章为我国银行业结构影响因素的实证研究。本章根据产业经济学和宏观经济学理论,主要着眼于回答“我国银行业结构的地区差异与演变趋势主要受哪些因素影响?其影响机制和途径具体怎样”,以我国1987-2004年间各省区数据所构成的省级面板数据,对我国银行业结构的影响因素作一实证研究并在此基础上提炼出一些有效降低银行业集中度和缩小银行业结构地区差异的政策建议。第7章为我国银行业结构优化的规范研究。本章致力于回答“我国银行业结构优化的目标取向应该是什么?应该如何优化我国银行业结构”,对我国银行业结构优化做一规范研究:首先对关于银行业结构合意性的国内外研究成果加以评论,在此基础上提出我国银行业结构优化的目标取向,然后在对前面章节的结论与建议进行梳理和总结的基础上提出我国银行业结构优化的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Bank structure in this paper means banking market structure. Since reform and opening up, as China’s banking industry changed from the "unification" of the banking system to the "duality" of the banking system and then to coexisting development of the current state-owned commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, city commercial banks, rural financial institutions, China’s postal savings banks, foreign investment banks, non-bank financial institutions and other financial institutions, The market structure has changed dramatically: changing from the complete monopoly to the high degree of monopoly of the typical four state-owned commercial banks and then to strong competitive oligopoly. Moreover, what needs to be pointed out is that, due to various reasons, China’s banking market structure in different regions has a non-equilibrium development. At the same time, on the one hand China’s economic growth and development has made noteworthy achievements, but on the other hand China’s economic growth has a non-equilibrium development in this developing countries, the gap in GDP in different regions is sharp and with the trend of expanding. Thus, in the coordinated development of regional economy and building a socialist harmonious society under the new situation, a series of questions will be naturally raised are: (1) What kind of research results at home and abroad can we get in the structure of the banking sector and economic growth, what are their defects and deficiencies, and what’re the further research directions? (2) Since reform and opening up, what about the China’s banking market structure of the overall situation, regional differences and trends, specifically, how it has been evaluated? (3) What’s the relationship between banking market structure in China’s various regions and economic growth? Does it relate to the two non-linear relations and regional differences? Is it possible that China’s banking market structure could explain the difference in economic growth? (4) Is there existing long-term and stable relationship between the China’s regional structure of the banking and economic growth? Does there exist the cause and result relationship? What’s the direction of the cause and result relationship? Is there the existence of regional differences of this the cause and result relationship? (5) China’s banking market structure and evolution of the regional differences trend are mainly affected by what kind of factors? What are its specific mechanisms and channels? (6) What’s its goal orientation of China’s banking market structure if it should be optimized? How should optimize the structure of China’s banking industry? Therefore, focusing on the range of issues on the structure of China’s banking industry and economic growth and based on a scientific and rational study ,this paper, together with the discuss of the relationship between the structure of the banking in China as well as the impact of factors of the system, will provide some targeted and accessible policy recommendations with a view to optimizing the structure of China’s banking industry and the structure of the banking, and economic growth and the interaction between the benign interaction benefits.This paper is divided into seven chapters, the logical structure and contents are summarized as follows:Chapter 1 Introduction. This chapter provides the major issues, the presentation of a study, research methods, innovation and inadequacies. And it also provides the summary of the full text.Chapter 2 the literature reviews. This chapter works to answer " What kind of research results at home and abroad can we get in the structure of the banking sector and economic growth, what are their defects and deficiencies, and what’re the further research directions?", in other words, this chapter will fully introduce the results at home and abroad on the structure of the banking and economic growth, and objectively evaluate its deficiencies and shortcomings, and on this basis further research directions.Chapter 3 the China’s banking market structure studies. This chapter focuses on answering the question " Since reform and opening up, what about the China’s banking market structure of the overall situation, regional differences and trends, specifically, how it has been evaluated?", it is in an attempt to use some strong operational indicators to measure the structure of the banking sector in China, the overall situation and regional differences and gives a systematic, scientific and comprehensive study.Chapter 4 the China’s banking market structure and economic growth of empirical research, which is based on the provincial panel data estimation. This chapter is to address the main issue of " Is there existing long-term and stable relationship between the China’s regional structure of the banking and economic growth? Does there exist the cause and result relationship? What’s the direction of the cause and result relationship? Is there the existence of regional differences of this the cause and result relationship? ". Using the deposits and loans’ data of the top 4 state-owned banks and all the financial institutions including 24 provinces in china during the period from 1987 to 2004, and with the empirical study on he relationship of the structure of the banking sector and economic growth, it gives the evidence for the two theoretical research from the economic transformation of a developing country.Chapter 5 the empirical study of cause and result relationship of China’s banking market structure and economic growth, which is based on the provincial panel data, this chapter is to address the main issue of " s there existing long-term and stable relationship between the China’s regional structure of the banking and economic growth? Does there exist the cause and result relationship? What’s the direction of the cause and result relationship? Is there the existence of regional differences of this the cause and result relationship?". Using the unit root tests, co-integration analyses and error correction models, the paper investigates the long-term and short-term cause and effect relationship between the banking market structure and economic growth based on a panel data composed of 24 provinces in china from 1987 to 2004. In addition, the paper also explores whether the banking commercial reform made an influence on the long-term and short-term cause and effect relationship between the banking market structure and economic growth. And it also provides policy recommendations which may apply to our developing countries.Chapter 6 An Empirical Study of the impact of China’s banking market structure factors, which is based on the provincial panel data estimation. This chapter based on industry economics and macroeconomic theory, focuses on answering the question "China’s banking market structure and evolution of the regional differences trend are mainly affected by what kind of factors? What are its specific mechanisms and channels?", based on 1987-2004 data posed by the provincial panel data on the structure of China’s banking industry, this study refined on the basis of a number of effective concentration of the banking sector lower structure of the banking sector and narrowing regional disparities policy recommendations.Chapter 7 the norms study of structure of optimization of China’s banking industry. This chapter is committed to answering the question "What’s its goal orientation of China’s banking market structure if it should be optimized? How should optimize the structure of China’s banking industry?" it provides a standard research on how to optimize the structure of China’s banking industry: first it based on the consensual nature of the structure of the banking sector research results at home and abroad, and then it puts up an orientation for how to optimize the structure of China’s banking industry, and then after the conclusions and recommendations in the front sections straightened out, it proposes policies for structural optimization of the China’s banking industry更多还原