中国道路货物运输产业组织与变迁研究

【作者】 童燕；

【导师】 殷醒民；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 产业组织学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 我国道路货物运输产业是最早实行市场化改革的产业之一。自1983年交通部提出“有路大家走”的政策以来,道路货运产业全面放松管制,社会运力大量涌入,迅速解决了运输难问题。但进入上世纪九十年代中后期,该产业很快进入过度竞争状态,截至2006年,全国营运性载货车辆保有量为648万辆,道路货物运输经营业户468万家,户均拥有车辆数仅1.4辆。整个产业呈现出价格竞争激烈、超载超限运输屡禁不止的混乱状态,市场绩效很差。与此同时,进入21世纪以来,现代物流产业在我国迅猛发展。作为物流全程最后10公里的唯一承载方式,道路货物运输是决定物流现代化的关键,而我国道路货物运输产业的发展现状严重制约了我国现代物流产业的健康发展。道路货运产业发展问题重重,但是理论研究却严重滞后。一方面,由于运输业的技术经济特征确实与一般工商业不同,已有的分析未能很好的结合其特性,造成理论分析结果和实践大相径庭;另一方面,运输业中的道路货物运输产业,尤其是我国的道路货物运输产业,又是一个极度分散的产业,统计数据严重不足,导致定量研究存在很大困难。因此,长期以来,理论界对道路货物运输产业的相关研究很少,从产业组织视角对道路货运进行全面研究几乎是空白。正是基于产业发展所面临的问题和理论研究的现状,本论文以传统产业组织SCP分析框架为基础,尝试结合道路货物运输产业的特殊技术经济特征和我国道路货物运输产业发展的特定历程,构建道路货运产业组织动态SCP分析框架,并应用这一分析框架,对我国1949年以来道路货运产业组织各个层面的变迁进行全面分析,探讨其中存在的问题及其原因,并提出相关政策建议。论文首先对国内外道路货物运输产业组织研究做了详细的文献综述,对道路货运产业组织研究所涉及的SCP理论体系、运输业特殊属性理论与道路运输管制、分工与产业组织演进等进行了理论回顾,并据此构建了全新的动态SCP分析框架,为论文研究框架的设计做了理论准备。然后,论文特别使用一章的篇幅详细探讨道路货物运输产业特殊的技术经济特征和产业管制变迁历程,并对我国道路货运产业从1949-2006年近60年的发展进行了计量分析。通过对各国道路货物运输产业管制历程的梳理,归纳出道路货物运输产业特殊技术经济特征、管制特征、产业基本生产条件发展水平以及市场结构特征之间相互作用的规律性变化历程。通过对我国道路货运产业发展影响因素的计量分析,进一步验证我国道路货运产业增长与市场化进程、产业基本生产条件发展等之间的高度相关性。接下来,本论文根据第2章确定的理论分析框架,密切结合产业特殊技术经济特征,分别使用三章的篇幅,对我国道路货物运输产业的市场结构、企业行为和市场绩效在过去30年的发展变迁及其影响因素进行了详细的实证分析。论文第4章首先对我国近60年道路货运产业市场结构及其变迁进行了实证分析,结果显示:我国道路货运产业经过30年的市场化发展,形成持续过度竞争的市场结构,但在近年表现出微弱的集中趋势。然后,论文对持续过度竞争市场结构的成因进行了分析,指出:转轨经济条件下管制急剧放松导致的产业过度进入、产业特殊技术经济特征这一内生因素以及产业基本生产条件等外生因素是导致我国道路货运产业持续过度竞争市场结构形成的主要原因。论文第5章通过案例分析,对我国道路货运产业中典型企业在过去60年间的企业行为演化进行了描述,指出我国道路货物运输产业企业行为以整车运输过度价格竞争和超载为主要特征,但近年出现专业物流公司纵向一体化趋势和小型零担专线运输公司联盟的趋势。然后,论文从管制变迁、市场结构、产业外部环境和基本条件变化、分工深化角度对企业行为的影响因素进行了分析,并据此得出结论:我国道路货物运输企业分散经营的特征在今后相当长时间内难以改变。论文第6章以汽车货运生产率和货车增广全要素生产率为指标对道路货运产业的市场绩效及其影响因素进行了实证分析,结果显示:道路货运产业市场结构、需求增长以及产业基本条件对道路货运产业市场绩效存在显著影响。实证研究同时显示,在市场结构不变的情况下,交易方式的改变影响市场绩效发生变化,并从实验经济学视角对此进行了解释。最后,根据全文分析的结果,论文第7章对道路货运产业规制改革提出了建议,认为应当通过提高整车运输进入壁垒、同时降低零担运输和专业物流的进入壁垒来促进具有规模经济性的网络型道路运输方式的发展;通过培育道路货运交易市场从交易环节提高道路货运产业集中度,从而达到改善我国道路货物运输产业市场绩效的目的。论文对我国道路货运产业组织的研究进行了开创性的工作,在动态SCP分析框架的构建和相关实证分析上具有创新性的贡献,研究结果对现实具有很好的解释性,提出的政策建议具有可操作性。不足之处在于受行业统计资料限制,计量分析还不够全面、深入,部分定性分析缺乏实证的检验。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s road freight transportation industry is one of the earliest industries to apply the market reform. Since the year of 1983, Ministry of Transportation raised the policy of "Sharing the Road with Everybody", the road freight transportation industry has reduced the restrictions, and therefore, the transportation problems have been resolved to some extent. But entering the end of 1990s, this industry met a super-competition situation. By the end of 2006, the national operational motor carriers amount had been 6.48 million, road freight transportation operators amount had been 4.68 million and the average for per household is only 1.4. The whole industry has appeared the mess situation of price competition and overload transportation and the market performance is very poor. Meanwhile, since the 21st century, the modern logistics industry has had a rapid development in China and the road freight transportation, as the only transportation way for the last 10 kilometers of the whole logistic process, plays a key role in modern logistics. China’a road freight transportation has severely restricted the healthy development of Chinese modern logistic industry.There are many problems in the development of the road freight industry, however, the theoretical research has lagged. On the one hand, the techno-economic characteristic of the transportation industry is indeed different from general business, and the analysis was not in good accordance with its characteristics, resulting in great difference in theoretical results and practice. On the other hand, the road freight transportation in the transportation industry, especially in China, is extremely fragmented. The serious shortage of statistical data leads to great difficulty in quantitative research. For a long time, theorists have done very little in research of road freight transportation. The overall research in road freight transportation from the perspective of industry organization is almost blank.Based on the problems faced by industry development and the status of the theoretical study, the paper in the view of the SCP framework of the traditional industrial organization analysis, trying to combine the techno-economic characteristic of the transport industry and the specific course of the road freight transportation industry development, sets up the dynamic SCP framework of road freight transportation industrial organization, makes a comprehensive analysis in the changes at all levels of road freight transportation since 1949, explores the problems and the causes and puts forward the related policy recommendations.Based on broad literature reviews of researches on foreign and domestic road freight transportation industrial organization, this thesis presents theoretic and research progressing reviews on SCP analytical framework, special nature theory of transport industry and the regulation, division of labour and evolvement of industrial organization. Upon this solid foundation, the author constructs a brand new dynamic SCP analytical framework which lays a theoretic basis for the research framework of the thesis.In the following chapter, the thesis probes into the special tech-economic characteristics and industrial regulation. After exploring the industrial data from 1949 to 2006, econometrical analysis on the approximately sixty-year development of road freight transportation industry in China is given. Through carding the country-to-country regulation and deregulation evolving history in this industry, the author concludes the regular evolving procedure of the interactions among special technical and economical characteristics, regulatory characteristics, basic conditions and levels of development. The econometrical analysis on influential factors of domestic industrial development further proves that the increment of domestic road freight transportation industry has a significant correlation with regulator evolvement, basic industrial production conditions etc.Based on the theoretical analyzing framework we proposes, the following 3 chapters we conduct empirical studies of development, evolvement and influential factors of the market structure, conduct and market performance in domestic road freight transportation industry for the past 30 years. The chapter 4 empirically examines the market structure and its movement of road freight transportation industry in the past sixty-yea. The results show that after thirty-year market development, this underlying industry gradually fashions an over-competitive market structure which puts up a delicate centralizing trend in recent years. Afterwards the thesis analyzes the cause of this over-competitive market structure indicating the facts that the industry over-entrance resulted from sharp relaxation of regulation is the main cause of this over-competitive market structure of which the other main causes are industry-specific tech-economic characteristics related endogenous factor and basic industrial production conditions related exogenous factor in this transitional economy.The Chapter 5 described the typical enterprises conduct evolution of China’s road freight transportation industry in the last 60 years by case analysis and pointed out that the characteristics of China’s enterprises conduct in the road freight transportation industry are abundant price competition and overload. But in recent years, it shows the trend of verticalization in logistic and alignment benefits of small-scale less-than-truckload. Afterwards, the thesis analyzed from the points of regulation transfer, market structure, industry external environment and basic conditions changes and made the conclusion that the characteristics of decentralized operations of China’s road freight transportation enterprises will not change in the coming long period of time.The Chapter 6 analyzed the market performance and its influencing elements of the road freight transportation industry based on the index of freight transportation production rate and vehicles whole-element production ratio and the result shows that the market structure, demand increase and the basic conditions of the road freight industry have a significant influence on the market performance of the road freight industry. It also shows that under the situation of unchanged market structure, the changes of transaction will change the market performance and also the thesis explained it from the perspective of experimental economics.Finally, according the result of the analysis, the Chapter 7 raised some suggestions on the road freight transportation industry reforms. The opinions are by increasing the entering barrier for the truck load and decrease the entering barrier for the less-than-truckload and professional logistics to improve the development of the scaled-economic network road transportation; by cultivating the road freight transportation transaction market to increase the road freight transportation industry concentration degree so that the target of improving the market performance of Chinese road freight transportation.The thesis does innovative researches on the road freight transportation industry, and gives innovative contribution to the construction of the dynamic SCP analysis frame and relative demonstration analysis. The result of the research gives a good explanation to the reality, and also provides many feasible policy suggestions. The downside of the thesis is that the quantitative analysis is not very completed due to the shortage of the industrial statistic materials, and still some qualitative analysis is lack of verification of practice.更多还原