劳动生产率增长与人口老龄化的应对研究

【作者】 邬民乐；

【导师】 彭希哲；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 人口老龄化是我国今后面临的一个重大挑战。根据联合国预测,本世纪上半叶是我国人口老龄化快速发展的时期,到2050年,60岁及以上老年人口比重将达到31.1%,届时三个人中就有一个是老年人。快速的人口老龄化必将对我国经济社会发展产生重大而深远的影响。现阶段,我国人口老龄化呈现出比较明显的“未富先老”特征。“未富”中国固然需要大力发展经济,然而,人口的“先老”对经济增长的负面影响已经并将继续显现出来。在人口老龄化的背景下,我国如何保持经济的持续发展,并且实现人口老龄化特征由“未富先老”向“又富又老”的转变,是社会各界热议的问题,也是本研究的基本出发点。人口老龄化是人口转变的必然结果。本文将通过叠代模型,说明人口转变过程中人口红利的产生机制,以及人口红利向人口负债过渡的必然性。随着人口总抚养比的上升,我国将进入人口老龄化新的发展阶段,也就是“没有人口红利的老龄化”(或者是“人口负债的老龄化”)。而在人口负债阶段,为确保经济持续性发展,迫切要求劳动生产率不断的提高。养老保险制度是人口老龄化社会的重要支柱。本文的现收现付养老金财务平衡模型,也说明了劳动生产率增长对提高老年人养老金水平的重要意义。本文对改革以来我国经济增长的分析表明,尽管劳动生产效率改进已经是拉动经济增长的最主要因素,但是其长期增长仍然面临一些制约因素:1)从结构分析来看,首先,劳动生产率增长主要是由第二产业推动,第一、第三产业劳动生产率增长缓慢;其次,由于农村劳动力文化教育水平偏低以及城市化发展不足,使得劳动生产率增长中就业结构转移效应并不明显。2)从要素分析来看,劳动生产率增长主要由物质资本推动。但是新经济增长理论和发达国家经验表明,长期的经济增长主要依赖于以人力资本为依托的全要素生产率,而不是物质资本。人口老龄化社会中,提高劳动生产率的意义在于能够使相对较少的劳动人口创造出满足老龄化社会需求的社会财富。因此,只有转变现有经济发展方式,促进劳动生产率长期增长,才能为应对人口老龄化准备充足的物质基础,使人口老龄化带来的社会负担可以为中国社会所承受。更多还原

【Abstract】 Ageing of population is a serious challenge faced by China in future. The aging population will grow fast in the 1st half of this century according to the projection of UN. The proportion of aging population over 60 years old is going to 31.1%, which means there will be 1 elderly among 3 people. The aging trend will lead to an inevitable dent on the economy and society of China."Aging before getting rich" is a remarkable characteristic of current trend of aging population, which has passive impact on Economy of China that has been emerging already. How to keep the growth of economy by transferring the trend of "aging before getting rich" to aging while getting rich" is a hot-issue. This essay is based on this issue.The ageing of population is the consequence of demographic transition. By constructing an overlapping-generations model, this essay demonstrates the mechanism of demographic bonus generation during the transition and proves the inevitability of changing from bonus to debts. China is going to enter a new stage of population ageing following the escalation of total dependency ratio, which is called ageing without bonus (or ageing with demographic debt). In this stage, continued development of economy demands continued improvement of labor productivity. At the same time, the improvement of labor productivity is also crucial to the PAYG system which is the basement of aging society. This is demonstrated by a pension finance balance model under the system of cash basis.Analysis of the economy growth since the China Reform shows that the improvement of labor productivity is the major driving force for economy growth while there are still many limitation factors. 1) Perspective of structure analyzing: First of all, labor productivity is mainly promoted by secondary industry and the other 2 industries increase slowly; secondly, the effect of employment structure transfer is not obvious due to the low education level of rural labors and insufficient civilization. 2) Perspective of factors analysis: The productivity is mainly droved by material capitals. However, the Neo-Economy Growth theory and the experiences of developed country told us that the long-term growth of economy is supported by the TFP based on human capital.In an ageing society, promotion of labor productivity means that the huge wealth requirements by ageing society can be met by small labor population. Consequently, transforming the growth pattern to promote the labor productivity is the only way to produce sufficient material as the basement for the challenge of ageing society in the future of China.更多还原