【作者】 易晓文；

【导师】 曾五一；

【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 ， 统计学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 自1992年住房制度改革全面推进以来,我国房地产市场得到了迅速发展和壮大。与此同时,住房价格也持续快速上涨。持续快速的房价上涨,既刺激了投机性需求,也挤压了以自住为目的的且有收入支撑的真实需求;不仅使得巨额的社会剩余由住房购买者转移给销售者,也造成了巨大的社会福利损失。因此,探究影响住房价格波动的各因素的作用程度、作用机制、动态影响、作用后果及政府对房地产实行宏观调控的政策效应,进一步完善宏观调控政策,提高全社会福利水平,是一个很紧迫的问题。本文按照以下逻辑展开论述:问题的提出→影响住房价格波动的因素分析→导致的后果分析→政府采取的宏观调控政策效应分析。论文由八章组成。第一章绪论。阐述了本文研究背景,研究的目的和意义及研究范围。对国内外有关影响房地产价格波动因素的研究进行文献综述,并从内容和方法上进行了归纳,提出本文的研究思路。第二章房地产业与经济发展之间相互关系的国际比较及其影响分析。本章回顾了近年来我国房地产业发展状况,从定量的角度分析了住房销售额、房地产开发投资额与国内生产总值的相互关系,并进行了国际比较。讨论了房地产业发展对国民经济的影响。第三章影响住宅商品房价格波动因素的理论分析。本章首先从定性的角度展开分析。在明确了住房价格的含义和特征后,从影响住宅商品房的供给、需求和供需双方因素入手,根据经济理论同时考虑数据可获得性,构建了一个比较简约的住房供需平衡模型,进而推导出影响住宅商品房价格波动因素的理论模型,并从理论上阐述模型的参数估计和理论检验。第四章影响住宅商品房价格波动因素的实证检验。探索性地引入了“投机因素”并进行了量化处理,用双对数直线回归的方法,对影响住房价格波动因素和住房价格进行普通最小二乘估计,得到显著因素的影响力,分析全国的总体情况和省际差别。第五章影响住宅商品房价格波动因素的作用机制的理论研究与解释。在袁志刚、王维安等学者相关研究的基础上,运用经济学原理,理论上推导在单一市场、双市场及多市场条件下,由于居民收入、需求、成本、利率等因素对房价上涨的作用机制的理论模型。第六章基于SVAR方法的影响住宅商品房价格波动因素分析。主要运用结构向量自回归(SVA)的计量方法,构建影响住房价格波动因素的计量模型,阐述对模型进行识别和估计的方法,及如何通过脉冲响应和方差分解分析各影响因素对房价变化的动态影响。第七章我国住房价格上涨的福利效应研究。估算我国住房真实需求和住房价格在完全竞争市场结构下的均衡价格及合理价格,并对由于房价持续上涨的社会剩余转移和福利损失的数额进行测算。第八章我国房地产宏观调控效应分析。分析我国对房地产实行宏观调控的必要性、我国房地产市场宏观调控与发达国家的差距及房地产市场宏观调控的效应。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the 1992 housing institution reform had been spread all over the country, the real estate market has been developing rapidly. At the same time, the housing price is continually going up so fast that it not only stimulates the speculation demand, but also depresses the real housing demand supported by income. A huge stock of wealth has been transferred from the buyer to the seller, and an enormous sum of welfare loss resulted from the soar of housing price. It becomes imperative to strengthen the study on the factors leading housing price to change, the mechanism and the dynamic influence of housing price change acted by significant factors, the results , and the effects of Chinese real estate macro-Management, in order to improve both the efficiency of macro-Management polices and the level of social welfare.This thesis comprises eight chapters. We will expound it according to the studying trains of thought: putting forward the problem→Analyzing the factors influencing Chinese housing price change→the results→Analyzing the effects of Chinese real estate macro-control.Chapter one: Introduction. In this chapter, we not only discussed the studying background, including putting forward the problem, objective and significance of this dissertation, and the studying scope, but also analyzed the related studies and summed up it from the contents and methods, in order to put forward studying trains of thought.Chapter two: Analyzing the relation between real estate industry and economical development: international comparison. This chapter reviewed Chinese real estate developing situation at first, quantitatively analyzed the relation between both housing sale and real estate investment and GDP, and we compared it with abroad. Finally, we discussed the effects of domestic economy acted by real estate rapidly developing.Chapter three: Theoretically investigating the factors determing Chinese housing price to change. The chapter qualitatively analyzes the factors affecting housing price. After specify its meaning and peculiarity, we set up a simple model about the house supply-demand equilibrium according to economic theory and the available data, and put forward our opinions of the method to estimate & test theoretical model.Chapter four: Empirical analysis of the factors influencing Chinese housing price. This chapter originally imports the quantifying "speculation factor" into the model. We estimate the model of the affecting factors of housing price using the method of Ordinary Least Squares (OSL) in the way of Double-log-linear regression. After getting the influence of the significant factors, we analyze the case of general situation and each provincial case.Chapter five: Theoretically investigating the mechanism of housing price change influenced by significant factors. This chapter applies related economic theory to deduce theoretical mechanism model under single or double or multiple markets from housing price changing influenced by significant factors such as income, demand, cost, interest rate, etc.Chapter six: Studying the factors influencing Chinese housing price based on the SVAR model. This chapter applies SVAR to set up an econometric model about the factors influencing housing price. After discussed the method of identifying and estimating the model, we analyze how to get the dynamic influence through impulse response and variance decomposition.Chapter seven: Study on the effects of housing price change. After estimated not only Chinese real housing demand but also equilibrium price under the competitive market and the reasonable housing price, this chapter estimate the surplus and social welfare loss resulting from the soar of housing price.Chapter eight: Analyzing the effects of Chinese real estate macro-management. The chapter analyzed the necessity of macro-management in Chinese real estate market at first. And then, we discussed the gap of macro-management between china and abroad. Finally we estimated the effects of real estate macro-management.更多还原