【作者】 牛星；

【导师】 欧名豪；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 土地作为一种自然资源在46亿年前地球的形成过程中就已经存在了,后来随着生命的产生土地利用的行为就逐渐出现,但是真正意义上的土地利用应该从人类出现以后说起.在距今约650万年前人类由猿进化而来之后,土地利用作为人类有目的、有意识的社会经济活动,一直贯穿在人类发展的整个历史过程中,土地利用与人类活动相互影响、相互制约,构成了复杂的土地利用系统.迄今为止,土地利用系统经历了漫长而复杂的发展过程,在生产力水平极其低下的原始社会时期,土地利用系统处于原始协调(共生)的状态;进入文明时代之后,土地利用系统发生了变化,人类由环境的消费者转变为环境的改造索取者,这一时期土地利用系统进入改造索取阶段的协调状态;进入工业文明时期之后,在工业化初期,人们对土地的利用由改造索取变为征服破坏,表现出对资源的掠夺式开发,此时土地利用系统处于资源环境子系统与社会经济子系统对立冲突的初始状态;到了工业化中期,随着科学技术的进一步发展,人们在土地利用的过程中开始有意识的去控制、调节、延缓正在蔓延的资源和环境问题,土地利用系统又转向了新的协调共生状态.到上世纪中叶,人类进入工业化后期阶段,随着工业化和城市化的迅速发展,土地非农化利用的趋势日益加剧,土地生态环境遭到严重破坏,土地利用系统处于过渡性的不协调状态;以信息革命为标志的后工业文明时代到来之后,土地持续利用逐渐成为土地科学研究的焦点同时也是土地利用的理想目标,此时的土地利用系统又在逐渐转向可持续的协调发展状态。土地利用系统的发展演化状况关乎人类的生存与发展问题,如果土地利用系统能够朝着良性、有序的方向发展,那么人类的生产、生活都将会处在一个稳步前进的积极状态之中,同时人类社会的前进又必然会推动土地利用系统的可持续发展;反之,如果土地利用系统的演化趋于恶化,那必然会导致人类生存环境和生活质量的恶化,人类社会的混乱反过来又会进一步加剧土地利用系统的恶性循环乃至灭亡。因此,有必要对土地利用系统的演化发展进行研究,通过这方面的研究,可以了解土地利用系统运行的规律,并以此来调控土地利用系统今后的发展态势,实现土地利用系统的良性运行,以期为人类社会的协调发展做出贡献.基于以上考虑,论文在系统科学理论、可持续发展理论、人-地关系理论以及土地生态经济理论的支撑下,采用规范研究与实证研究、定性分析与定量分析、静态分析与动态分析相结合的方法,对土地利用系统的演化情况及状态评价展开了研究,论文的研究内容主要包括以下几个方面:(1)土地利用系统的特性及运行原理.通过与一般系统的特性、结构和功能的对照比较,具体分析了土地利用系统的结构功能特性;以此为基础确定土地利用系统运行的主要目标,即土地利用系统的运行是为了实现土地资源的合理配置与增值、保持土地利用系统的良性运行并创建有序的人地关系格局。在运行目标的驱动下,从土地利用系统特性的角度分析土地利用系统的运行原理.(2)土地利用系统演化历史的回顾。首先,对不同历史阶段土地利用系统的发展演化情况作了大概的回顾;接下来,分别对土地利用自然子系统、土地利用社会子系统和土地利用经济子系统的发展过程进行具体的分析;(3)土地利用系统的演化分析。在对土地利用系统演化过程进行定性分析的基础上,借鉴熵理论、自组织和他组织理论的原理,采用定量分析的方法,构建土地利用系统无序度评价指标模型,首先对土地利用系统的演化方向进行研究;接下来,借鉴系统理论的分类方法,对土地利用系统演化的驱动因素作了新的分类,并运用主成分分析和灰色关联分析的数理统计方法,具体分析了土地利用系统演化的驱动力机制;(4)土地利用系统的状态评价.土地利用系统演化的不同阶段伴随着土地利用系统状态的交替,通过构建指标体系,首先对土地利用系统的承载力水平进行评估,在此基础上对土地利用系统的无序活动和承载力状况进行比较分析,由此评价土地利用系统的稳定性状态;(5)土地利用系统的调控管理.依据系统调控的原理,对土地利用系统的调控内涵、目标、机制和主要手段进行分析,重点阐述了土地利用规划对土地利用系统的调控管理作用;(6)最后,根据以上的理论研究框架,以扬州市为例,对扬州市土地利用系统的演化过程、状态评价以及调控管理进行了实证分析.通过论文的理论与实证研究,主要得出以下结论:(1)土地利用系统是一个复杂的耦合系统,实现系统的良性运行是土地利用系统运行的根本目标,在此目标的驱动下,系统的运行遵循整体涌现性、协同作用性以及耗散结构性的作用原理.(2)土地利用系统经过长期的发展演化,呈现出无序-有序或低级有序-高级有序发展的态势;而在土地利用系统演化的动因分析中,他组织驱动因素的影响作用处于主导地位。对扬州市土地利用系统演化的方向进行评价研究,结果表明:扬州市土地利用系统的熵值由1996年的1.306减少到2004年的0.899,这期间减少了0.407,表明扬州市在这期间土地利用系统总体上朝着可持续的方向发展,系统无序度指数下降了0.407.对扬州市土地利用系统演变起主要驱动作用的是他组织驱动因素,人口增长、经济增长、城市化进程的加快以及政策制度等因素都在很大程度上影响并推动了扬州市土地利用系统的演进.(3)土地利用系统演化的不同阶段,系统的稳定性状态存在差异,总体来说系统的状态是不断趋于稳定的。对扬州市土地利用系统的承载度进行评价,结果表明:1996-2004年间扬州市土地利用系统的承载能力在总体上表现出一种平稳逐渐上升的趋势,从1996年的0.7869增加到2004年的1.4057,年均增加了0.069个单位的承载能力,比1996年增长了78.65%,呈现出了一个良好的态势.在此基础上评价土地利用系统的稳定性状态,虽然这期间土地利用系统出现过不稳定的状态,但是总体上来看,土地利用系统的状态是不断趋于稳定的。(4)对土地利用系统进行规划调控管理,土地利用结构是调控的关键,耕地和建设用地是调控的主要对象。通过对扬州市土地利用现状结构、预测结构和规划结构的对比分析,可以明显看出扬州市在规划调控期间预测结构与规划结构矛盾最为突出的地类主要集中在农用地中的耕地、园地和建设用地中的居民点及工矿用地,根据扬州市社会经济发展的需要和土地利用规划编制的要求,确定规划期内扬州市土地利用系统调控的目标主要有两点:一是加强保护耕地,确保合理的耕地保有量水平,在保证100%粮食自给率的条件下,到2010年扬州市的耕地保有量应该保持在31.11万hm~2左右,这样才能总体上满足农业生产和生活的需求;二是严格控制建设用地扩展,提高建设用地集约利用程度。论文最后针对研究的结论提出具体的政策建议:(1)重视生态用地保护,增强土地利用系统的自组织能力;(2)协调好人-地关系,发挥土地利用系统他组织驱动因素的积极作用;(3)以土地可持续利用为准则,促进土地利用系统自组织和他组织作用的协同一致;(4)编制刚性和弹性相结合的土地利用规划,增强土地利用系统的规划调控能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a natural resource, land existed far from the origin of globe 46,000 million years ago, then land use generated gradually by the appearance of animal, but actually speaking, the conscious conduct of land use come out since human evolved from ape 6.5 million years ago, it can be considered as an purposefully social-economy activity during human history, and interacted with human conducts, gradually the huge land use system shaped, which refers to all the aspects of society, economy and nature.So far, the land use system has experienced a long and complicated history. Back in primitive society period, while the productivity is pretty poor and the human society depends on natural environment absolutely. This is the initial period of land use system that it indicates a coordination of a primitive state of symbiosis; After entering the civilization, land use system changes a lot, the role of human plays in the system changes from environmental consumer to transformer, which promotes the land use system to a state of transformation; At the initial period of industrial time, the way of land use changes into destroyed conquest, conflict between resource-environment and social-economy occurs in land use system; then in the middle-industrialization, with the advance of science and technology, people begin to control, adjust and delay the resource and environment problems which are spreading more and more, so the state of land use system turns to a new coordination; In the middle of 19’th century, the late industrialization, with the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, trend of non-agricultural land use is aggravating, which results in severe ecology problems in land use and makes the system run disordered; When the post-industrialization period marked by information reform comes, more concern is focuses on sustainable land use, and then the land use system turns to the state of another coordination of sustainable development.Therefore, we can see that the development of land use system counts for the existence and development of human, if the land use system tends fine, then the whole society’s production and life can be prompted positively; On the contrary, a deteriorated land use system can surely lead to a worse environment and thus a poor life for human. Therefore, it is terrifically necessary to carry a research on evolution of land use system, through which we can understand the rules of its running, and then control its development rationally for the purpose of benign operation of land use system and make due contribution to human society.Based on the above consideration, this paper, supported by theories of system science, sustainable development, man-land relationship and land eco-economy, adopts research methods such as normative & demonstration research, qualitative & quantitative analysis, and static & dynamic analysis etc., implements research on evolution analysis and state evaluation of land use system, it concerns the mainly contents as follows: (1) Research on features and operation principles of land use system. Through comparison of features in general system, the paper analyses special structure and function of land use system;Then it make clear the evolution goals of land use system as to realize rational allocation and value increase of land use, keep a nice operation and build a harmony relationship in the system. In order to realize the goals, principles that should be obeyed in land use system needed to be study; (2) Review of the evolution history in land use system. Firstly, a general analysis is carried on the whole system, and then, a specific description is given on evolutions of all the sub-systems of nature, society and economy; (3) Analysis of evolution in land use system. Based on theories of entropy, self-organization and hetero-organization, an evaluation model of disordered degree of land use system is built, which is used to assess the evolution direction of land use system; Then paper gives a new classification on driving-force factors of land use system, and by means of several statistic methods such as principle components and grey correlation, it analyses driving-force mechanism in evolution of land use system; (4) State assessment of land use system. Though an establishment of assessing indicators, paper firstly evaluates the capacity of land use system, then according to the former assessment of disordered degree of land use system, a conclusion of state assessment in land use system can be put forward; (5) Control manmagement of land use system. Based on principles of system control, paper discusses the connotation, goals, mechanism and mainly means during land use system’s control, and emphasizes the role of land use planning on its control; (6) Finally, paper makes a case study in Yangzhou city though the theoretic frame above, and some conclusions are drew out as follows:Firstly, land use system is complicatedly-coupled, it’s essential objective is to realize an odered evolution in land use system. Under guild of the very goals, the system runs follow principles of wholly-emergency, synergy, and dissipative structure features.Secondly, land use system tends towards a direction that is more and more ordered after the longtime evolution. While in the analysis of driving force in change of land use system, we can see that hetero-organization plays an important role. Taking Yangzhou city as an example, result shows that the entropy value of land use system reduces to 0.899 in 2004 from 1.306 in 1996, totally declines 0.407, which indicates the evolution of land use system in Yangzhou city runs sustainably. From the driving force analysis, we can find the hetero-organization factors such as population, economic growth, urbanization and policy have a good influence in pushing forwards the evolution of land use system in Yangzhou city.Thirdly, system state is quite different during different phases in evolution history of land use system, but generally speaking, the system state is tending more steady. Assessment on capacity of land use system in Yangzhou city indicates that its value tends steady and some climbing between 1996 and 2004, the capacity value increases to 1.4057 in 2004 from 0.7869 in 1996, averagely adds 0.069 per year, showing a nice trend in its development. Above it we can assess the state of land use system whether it is steady or not, although there are some periods the state is not steady much, on the whole, system state is tending well.Finally, Though the analysis of control management in land use system by means of planning, we can see that land use structure is the key in planning control, and arable land and construction land are the mainly objects to control. Taking a comparison in present, forecast and planning structure of land use, it is obviously shows that the outstanding conflict between forecast structure and planning structure focuses on arable land, garden land, residential and industrial land. According to demand of social-economic development and requirement of land use planning, two goals can be ensured during planning period in land use system’s control: first of all, task of arable land protection must be strengthened, and a rational scale of arable land tenure, the amount of which should be kept about 31.11×10~4ha in 2010 in Yangzhou city on condition that food self-sufficiency rate meets 100%, so that the demand of agricultural production and life can be physically satisfied. And then, scale of construction land must be restricted terrifically, but explore big potential through intensive land use.Some suggestions are put forward in the end: firstly, attaching more importance to ecological land in order to enhance the ability of self-organization in land use system; Secondly, playing the positive role of hetro-organization factors in land use system through a fine relationship between people and land; Thirdly, under the rule of sustainable land use, synergy of self -organization and hetro-organization must be well combined and exerted; Finally, carrying out the very land use planning charactered by both rigidity and flexibility to boost the planning control in land use system.更多还原