【作者】 殷兴山；

【导师】 褚保金；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农村金融， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 本文试图从结构—效率—稳定范式来探讨金融服务业发展的本质问题。金融服务业发展就是金融服务业从无到有、从小到大、从简单到复杂、从低级到高级的不断运动变化过程。从本质上看,金融服务业发展意味着结构优化、效率提高、金融稳定。金融结构形成后,随着经济发展和科技的进步,会处于不断地变化发展中。降低交易成本是金融结构演变或优化的最根本内在动因;制度是影响金融结构演变或优化的最关键的外在因素,外在的制度安排通过内因-交易成本来影响金融结构,一系列合理的制度安排,将有利于克服信息不对称,降低金融交易的不确定性,减少金融风险,从而推进金融结构的优化。金融结构的优化标准包括促进经济发展和防范金融风险两个方面。金融结构体系要有利于提高储蓄转化为投资的效率,并实现资金的有效配置;有利于金融稳定,防范金融风险。要让风险合理地转移和分散,要让投资者自担风险,而不是让政府承担风险;要把风险分散到不同的金融机构,而不是将所有的风险都集聚在银行系统。金融结构优化可以提高储蓄转化为投资比例、资本配置效率、储蓄率等,进而促进经济增长。效率是金融的核心问题。金融效率就是资金融通的效率。金融效率的含义有微观与宏观之分:微观金融效率指金融机构本身的投入产出比率;宏观金融效率包括金融系统对社会储蓄的动员效率、储蓄向投资的转化效率以及投资对实体经济的推动效率等。相对于金融效率来说,在某种程度上,金融服务业竞争力指标更为综合地反映一国或地区的金融资源配置能力、比较优势。因此,还需要进一步用金融服务业竞争力指标来反映一国或一地区中若干个金融中心城市的金融资源集聚状况、辐射能力。在重视金融效率与金融服务业竞争力的同时,必须时刻关注金融风险与金融稳定状况。由于金融交易存在跨期性、后续性、预期性等特点,而信息不对称所导致的逆向选择和道德风险又会加剧金融风险。虽然金融风险不可避免,但可以通过合理的金融结构安排来减少风险,并将不能减少部分的系统性风险分散化,或转移给风险偏好者,使金融风险保持在可控制的范围内,避免金融危机的出现,维护金融稳定。金融稳定具有三重意义。一是金融系统功能稳健,金融体系对实体经济的服务功能运行正常。二是金融系统稳健,自身抵御风险、处理、化解和管理风险的能力强。三是上述两者功能协调兼顾,不能因为强调金融对经济的服务功能而忽视金融体系自身的建设,更不能片面强调金融系统的独立性、虚拟性,而忽视对经济的支持服务功能。一个稳定的金融生态环境是提高金融效率的保证。金融稳定使得各微观主体的成本和收益可以准确分析和预测,各交易主体可以准确评估交易风险和收益,这一切都是金融效率所必须的;另一方面,金融稳定与金融效率是有差异的。金融稳定可以建立在高效率的基础上,也可能是以牺牲效率为代价的,即金融稳定有高效的金融稳定态和低效的金融稳定态之分。经验表明,在金融效率没有得到相应提高的情形下,所获得的金融稳定只能是一种暂时的、不牢固的稳定,各国与地区货币与金融体系的真正持久稳定必须建立在金融效率提高的基础上。本文认为,金融服务业发展受到地理区位、区域文化以及银企合作共生态诸因素的影响。地理因素在解释中国区域经济、区域金融服务业发展差异方面是一个重要的变量。区域文化是一个地区的群体意识、价值观念、行为规范和管理办法等非物质因素的总和,它对区域经济、区域金融服务业发展的作用不可估量。文化的核心是价值理念,它为人们提供了一种判断好坏对错的标准,从而引导人们的行动向某一方向发展。一般来说,某种文化价值观一旦形成,并经过社会实践被证明具有科学性和先进性,从而为广大人民群众所接受,就难以轻易发生变化。在经济活动中,大多数人接受“固定的思维习惯”。当个人面对错综复杂的、信息超载的经济领域无法迅速准确地进行理性判断时,他们便会借助于遵从过去的惯例来走捷径,这样做可以减少经济行为选择的成本,简化计算过程。因此,特定地域的经济金融发展离不开文化背景的支撑,每个区域的经济金融活动都有独特的文化价值观。银行企业合作共生态是影响区域金融服务业发展的最重要因素。基于共生理论和社会资本的观点,银行、企业实际上是社会网络中的某个接点,但“接点与接点之间的距离”并非完全相等,一些“距离较近”的金融机构、企业等经济主体在长期交易中便出现了声誉机制,出现了具有互惠互利的银企合作共生态。本文在提出“银企合作共生态”这一概念的基础上,运用了信息经济学分析范式,建立三个模型对银企信贷博弈行为进行了分析。这些模型分析的引申意义在于:在现实经济生活中,要完善担保抵押系统,建立高效的司法制度,以有效降低交易成本,促进银企双赢;要完善社会征信系统,拓展声誉机制,使银企合作共生态成为一种经济常态,从而促进金融服务业发展。本文认为金融服务业发展具有较强的区域化特征。经济活动地域集中化的一个必然结果便是地区金融业的非均衡性发展,从而导致区域金融的形成。区域金融是市场经济条件下大国金融发展过程中资金向效率高的地区或部门集聚,从而在空间上出现金融资源相对集中的一种客观现象。金融资源相对集中,出现不同规模、不同层次的金融中心,进而形成金融中心的层系结构。然后,本文提出“金融批零市场假说”,并以长三角经济圈中的区域金融发展为例,对此进行定性描述和定量验证:作为国内甚至国际金融中心,上海的金融竞争力在长三角15个城市中是最强的,位居第一层次,为第一级金融批零中心;南京、杭州、苏州、宁波这4个城市可以认为是长三角的副金融中心,它们的金融竞争力总体上相对较强,位居第二层次,为第二级金融批零中心;无锡、常州、镇江、南通、扬州、泰州、湖州、绍兴、嘉兴、舟山大体归为第三层次,则为第三级金融批零中心。因此,可以认为金融集聚中心是一个多元素的层系结构,即由多层串联、同层并联以及处于不同层级的元素构成的金字塔结构。通过长三角15个城市金融服务业竞争力的比较分析,也有利于各城市正确认识自身金融竞争力的相对地位与相对差异,有利于决策者明确各自金融服务业的发展定位。本文以宁波为例对金融服务业发展进行了实证分析,并在此基础上提出了政策建议。金融相关率(FIR)和金融宽度(I)两个指标显示,宁波金融深化程度较高,货币化是金融深化的主要原因,经济快速发展是推动金融深化进程的重要因素,非市场因素对金融资产扩张影响很大;与此同时,宁波金融宽度相对较窄的状况没有得到有效改观,还存在间接融资与直接融资发展不平衡、金融工具结构不合理等问题,区域金融结构尚待进一步优化。在金融功能方面,宁波金融体系的清算、支付功能等基础功能以及资源配置的核心功能发挥较好,风险管理、信息提供等扩展功能有待于进一步有效发挥。通过计量分析可知,在长三角15个城市中,宁波的金融竞争力处于第二方阵,这与宁波金融服务业发展的经济环境、人文环境、银企合作共生态等密切相关,也与长三角南翼经济中心的定位比较吻合。通过构建金融稳定的评估模型,对宁波市1980-2006年的区域金融稳定状况进行实证分析,可知宁波金融稳定状况总体良好,也印证了金融稳定与金融效率的辨证关系。宁波金融服务业已取得了很大的发展:金融业运行稳健,金融规模增长迅速,资产质量和金融生态优良,金融机构赢利能力增强。但从另一方面看,也存在不足之处,突出表现在:金融服务业结构不均衡,金融机构服务能力、创新能力有待进一步加强,金融生态环境需要进一步提升等。因此,需要采取措施促进宁波金融服务业进一步发展:加强金融产品的本地化研发,提高金融服务业的创新能力;拓展投融资渠道,增强金融服务能力;建立区域金融稳定长效机制,营造优秀的金融生态环境;引导民间金融有序发展,充分发挥非正式金融的积极作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper tries to explore the essence of financial service industry development from the scope of structure-efficiency-stability. The development of financial service industry is an ongoing changing process from scratch, from less to more, from simple to complex, from elementary to advanced. In essence, the development of financial service industry means optimization of structure, efficiency improvement and financial stability.After the formation of financial structure, with the development of economic development and scientific advancement, the reducing of transaction cost is the fundamental intrinsic motivation of financial structure evolution; system is the fundamental key extrinsic factor. Exterior system arrangement influences the financial structure through intrinsic factor-transaction cost. A series of system arrangement can overcome the information asymmetry, decrease the uncertainty of financial transaction, reduce financial risks, and accordingly boost financial structure optimization. The optimization standard of financial structure includes facilitating the economic growth and preventing the financial risks. Financial structure system should be able to increase the efficiency of transforming the savings into investment and realize the efficient allocation of capital; to be helpful to the financial stability and preventing the financial risks. Instead of shouldering all the risks by the government, it is necessary to transfer and spread the risks reasonably, e.g. at investors’ own risks, and instead of concentrating all the risks into the banking system, it is necessary to disperse the risks into different financial institutions. The optimization of financial structure can improve rate of bank saving transforming into investment, capital allocation efficiency, and rate of saving and boost economic development.Efficiency is the core of finance. The financial efficiency is the efficiency of capital financing, which means financial institutions generate maximum output with minimum input. From the micro perspective, the output of financial system is the amount of sales revenue and the profit of financial system itself. The micro financial efficiency refers to the ratio of input-output, actually the financial institution efficiency. From the perspective of macro level, the output of financial system is the amount of social savings, which mobilized by the financial system, the amount of saving transformed into the investment which helped to drive the economic growth. Similarly to financial efficiency, to some degree, the financial service industry competitiveness index synthetically reflects a nation or a region’s financial capital allocation capability and comparative advantage. So, the competitiveness index is further used to reflect the conglomeration and radiation capability of financial resources. While concerning the financial efficiency, we shall also pay attention to the financial stability.Since financial transaction has the features of overlapping, subsequent and anticipative, while information asymmetry will lead to adverse selecting and moral risk, which will increase the financial risks. Although financial risk is inevitable, but reasonable arrangement can reduce the risks and disperse the systematic risk or transfer the risk to risk taker, finally maintaining the financial stability. There are triple meanings in the financial stability. The first is the functional stability, i.e., the financial system serves well to the real economy. The second is the financial system stability, which refers to the strong ability of preventing, handling and managing the risks. The third is the combination of above two. It is unwise to overlook the construction of financial system itself by emphasizing the serving function of finance to the economy; it is incorrect to lay undue stress on the independent and virtual feature of financial system while neglecting the supporting role of finance to the economy. A stable financial eco-environment is the guarantee to improve the financial efficiency. Financial stability can make it possible to analyze and predict the cost and revenue of micro entities, the transaction parties can precisely evaluate the transaction risks ad profits, all the above is necessary for the financial efficiency. On the other hand, financial stability differs from the financial efficiency. Financial stability can be based on the high efficiency, or can be at the cost of sacrificing the efficiency, i.e., there are differences of high efficient and low efficient financial stability status. Experiences show that, at the circumstance of low financial efficiency, the obtained financial stability is temporary and unstable. The constant real stability of national and regional currency and financial stability must be established on the basis of improving the financial efficiency.The paper thinks that, the financial service industry is influenced by the factors such as geography location, the regional culture and corporation between the bank and enterprise. The geography factor is an important explanatory variable in explaining the regional economy, regional financial service industry development difference. Regional culture is total of the regional sense of Masses, value concept, code of practice and management rules, which plays a very important role in regional economic and financial service industry development. The core of culture is the value opinion, which provides a judgment standard and steering the people’s action towards a certain direction. Generally, once a cultural value of concept is formed, which is proved to be of science and advanced, it will be widely accepted by the mass. Most people accept fixed thinking habit. When individuals facing complex, information overloaded economic field, unable to make rational judgments, will recur to past tradition to reduce the cost of selecting and simplify calculating process. The designated regional economic and financial development backed up by the cultural background, each region has its unique cultural value concept. Co-existing cooperation between bank and enterprise is the most important factor influencing the financial service industry development. Enterprises and banks are actually the connection points of social networks, but the distance of connection points are not exactly equal, some enterprises and banking institutions with "closer" distance have, through long term transactions, produced reputation mechanism and mutual beneficial co-existing cooperation between bank and enterprise, which promote the development of regional financial service industry. The paper based on the concept of co-existing cooperation between bank and enterprise, applied the information economic analysis format and three modules to analyze the credit game between bank and enterprise. In conclusion, we should perfect the mortgage system, establish high-efficient judiciary to reduce transaction cost and promote win-win between bank and enterprise also should perfect the social credit system and extend the fame mechanism to boost the development of financial service industry.From the aspect of outer aggregation form, the paper analyzed the regional characteristics of the development of financial service industry. The inevitable result of regional economic activity aggregation is the unbalanced development of regional financial industry, which leads to the formation of regional finance. Regional finance means that under the market economy, the capitals are aggregated towards the high efficient areas or departments. The regional financial development has clear hierarchy. Taking the Delta Region of Yangtze River as an example, as the national or the international financial center, the financial competitiveness of Shanghai is strongest, undoubtedly in the tier one. Nanjin, Hangzhou, Suzhou and Ningbo are regarded as the subsidiary financial center of Delta Region of Yangtze River, with relatively strong financial competitiveness, taking tier two positions. The tier three cities are Wuxi, Changzhou, Zhenjiang, Nantong, Yangzhou, Taizhou, Huzhou, Shaoxin, Jiaxin and Zhoushan. So it can be thought that the financial aggregation center is a multielement hierarchy structure, a pyramid structure composed by elements of multi-level in series, parallel in same level and different hierarchy. The comparative analysis of 15 cities can help the decision makers to realize the relative status and difference of each city and its own development route on the financial service industry.Taking Ningb as an example, the paper implemented demonstration analysis on the financial service development and put forward policy recommendation based on the analysis. The computation of two indexes shows that, (the indexes of Financial Interrelations Ratio (FIR) and reciprocal of variation coefficient of the source of fixed capital investment), the financial deepening of Ningbo generally moves upward. The main reason of Ningbo’s financial deepening is the monetization, the fast economic growth is also the important factor, the non-market factor also influence the financial assets expansion; the financial width in Ningbo also rise, but the indirect financing is in imbalanced position comparing with the direct financing, and structure of financial instruments is unreasonable, the regional financial structure remains to be optimized. From the perspective of financial function, the financial system’s clearing and settlement function and the resource allocation function exerts relatively well in Ningbo. The extended functions, such as risk management and information provision, need to be developed further. Among the 15 cities in the Delta Region of Yangtze River, Ningbo’s financial competitiveness is in the second tier. It is closely related to the economic environment, humane environment and corporation between bank and enterprise. It matches with the Ningbo’s positioning—the economic center of southern Delta Region of Yangtze River. Through the establishment of evaluation model of financial stability, a computational analysis of regional financial stability from 1980 to 2006 in Ningbo shows that Ningbo’s financial stability is generally sound which prove the dialectical relationship of financial stability and financial efficiency. The financial service industry has made great progress: financial industry operation steadily grows, financial scale increases rapidly, assets quality and financial ecology are sound, and profitability of financial institutions is better than before. But on the other hand, there still exist some deficiencies such as: unbalanced structure in financial service industry, service ability and innovation need to be further developed, and the financial eco-environment can be perfected, etcs. So it is necessary to adopt measures to promote further growth of Ningbo’s finance: measures as strengthening the localized research of financial products, enhancing the innovation ability, expanding investment and financing channels, improving the financial service ability, establishing long-term stabilized system, creating sound financial eco-environment, steering the nongovernmental financial development in order and facilitating constant optimization of financial structure.更多还原