【作者】 陶应虎；

【导师】 叶依广；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 在1978年以来改革进程中,中国在获得国民收入快速增长同时,收入分配也从计划经济时代高度的平均主义走向了高度的收入不平等。中国农村居民收入差距问题突显,尤其是农村区域间收入差距程度在1981～2002年间增长了2.8倍,远大于城乡收入差距和城镇区域间收入差距的增幅。因此,国内学者从不同角度对中国农村居民收入差距问题做了大量研究,应该说,这些研究对农村改革以来中国农村居民收入差距变化给出了富有洞察力的观察和解释,并大大地丰富了我们对中国农村居民收入差距的认识。但是,由于学者们大多集中地带(东中西)之间或省际之间宏观收入差距,较少有人系统研究省内农村居民收入区域差异问题,对于中国这样一个大国来说,这并不能完全反映当代中国农村居民收入区域差异变迁格局的全貌。江苏作为一个地处东部沿海地区的经济大省,改革开放以来,经济社会各项事业的发展取得了重大成就。与此同时,江苏也像全国的大多数地方一样,面临着今后进一步发展中的深层次矛盾的制约,尤其是农村居民收入区域差异不断扩大、农村全面建设小康社会步伐缓慢的问题。无可否认,适度的农村居民收入区域差异对地区经济、社会发展有着积极的作用,区域之间收入适度的差异能保证经济发展的效率,没有差异,就没有优势,从而也就无所谓区域比较优势的发挥。但是,区域收入差异不断扩大,对欠发达区域而言,造成它们发展所需的资金流失,特别是有能力的人才大量迁往发达区域,从而使欠发达区域经济增长更加迟缓,导致恶性循环。所以,对于农村区域收入差异过度拉大的社会经济影响也应有充分的认识。我们不能坐视其发展,而应自觉主动地调整和完善区域发展的政策和目标,将江苏现阶段的农村区际收入差距控制在一定范围内,使区际间存在的差距能够起到促进区际经济发展,而不是阻碍区际经济发展的作用。作为经济发达大省的江苏,非均衡的经济、文化、社会格局严重阻碍着江苏省全面建设小康社会目标的实现。因此,在这样的背景下,研究江苏农村居民收入区域差异则具有重要的现实意义。同时对于江苏实现社会整体转型,由经济大省变为经济强省,加快江苏省农村全面小康的建设步伐、确保全省社会经济持续快速健康发展具有战略意义。本文在前人研究基础上,试图以江苏省为案例,系统深入地研究江苏农村居民收入区域差异及其影响因素,探讨农村居民收入区域差异的变动轨迹和作用机理,明确缩小江苏农村居民收入区域差异的思路,确定保证江苏农村区域协调发展的政策和措施,从而保证江苏全面小康社会目标的实现。全文主要内容和基本结论如下:首先,本文对江苏农村居民收入区域差异的历史概况和原因进行分析。江苏农村南优北劣之势在南宋就已经形成;解放以后到改革开放以前,农村居民收入呈现出低速均衡发展的态势,区域差异并不大;改革开放以来,江苏农村经济发展并不平衡,苏南、苏中、苏北三大区域间农村居民收入分配差距也经历了扩大、缩小、再扩大的变化过程,但总体来讲,绝对差距在不断扩大:江苏省农村居民收入结构变动还具有明显的区域性,区域间除总体收入水平的差距不断扩大外,农村居民收入来源结构的差异更大,而且这种差异主要体现在工资性收入和家庭经营性收入上。江苏农村居民收入差异的主要原因有:地理区位与交通条件的制约;人力资本和家庭负担的影响;文化传统、思想观念等非正式规则的约束;农村工业化进程的差异;土地流转机制的完善程度以及农业发展速度快慢;农村基层组织成长程度的差异。其次,本文运用绝对差异指标和相对差异指标全面考察了1984-2005年江苏省农村居民收入区域差异,并对同一区域层次不同时期以及同一时期不同区域层次的农村居民收入区域差异进行比较分析;然后运用泰尔指数、加权变异系数以及基尼系数对江苏省农村居民收入区域差异进行分解,分析了农村居民收入区域差异的来源;最后进一步运用σ收敛和β收敛判断方法,先后分析了江苏省农村居民收入的σ收敛、绝对β收敛和条件β收敛。主要结论如下:三个不同层次区域的研究都表明,江苏省农村居民收入区域绝对差异呈逐年扩大的态势,区域相对差异总体上都处于平均水平,但是近年来在波动性中呈现上升趋势;在区域间总体差异的构成中,地带间的差异(苏南、苏中、苏北之间的差异以及13个市之间的差异)始终是影响总体差异的决定因素。依据基尼系数分解公式对农村居民收入差异进行分解,分别考察三大区域和13个市农村居民收入差异中经济因素和人口因素,无论是三大区域,还是13个市,在不同年份基尼系数主要来源于经济因素的贡献,而人口因素对基尼系数的贡献在各年均为负,但数值绝对量较小。1985-2005年江苏省农村居民收入(三个层次)整体上不存在σ收敛;大多数时段江苏省农村居民收入存在着显著的绝对β收敛,但从模型的估计效果来讲并不理想;江苏省三个层次(64县、13个市、三大区域)都存在条件收敛,而且在区域内苏南、苏中、苏北同样也存在条件收敛。第三,采用变动矩阵、收入变动指数、P指数分析了区域农村居民收入变动情况,主要结论如下:江苏省农村居民收入变动性越来越低了,江苏农村居民收入越来越缺乏变动性了;从时间趋势上看,三大层次都显示区域农村居民收入变动对区域收入差异的作用呈现波动性。第四,主要从宏观层面上探讨经济发展对农村居民收入区域差异的影响。经济发展与农村居民收入区域差异是密切联系在一起的,农村居民收入区域差异不仅仅表现为经济发展的一个结果,它同时又是影响甚至于决定经济发展的一个重要变量。二者之间是一种动态的相互作用和相互影响的关系。借助于SPSS13及Eviews5.0软件,利用主成分分析法和H-P滤波等方法,对江苏经济发展与农村居民收入区域差异进行了协整分析、格兰杰因果检验以及脉冲分析,探讨了江苏经济发展与农村居民收入区域差异之间是否存在长期稳定的协整关系、因果关系,以及他们之间具体的影响过程和方向,得出的主要结论为:协整关系分析和格兰杰因果检验表明,不管是江苏64个县、13个市或者三大区域,江苏经济发展与农村居民收入区域差异之间存在长期稳定的协整关系和双向因果关系,具有稳健性;进一步脉冲分析表明,尽管经济发展也是农村居民收入区域差异的原因,但是经济发展在中长期内还会进一步加大江苏农村居民收入区域差异。同样,在中、长期农村居民区域收入差异扩大对经济发展起消极阻碍作用。江苏省近几年农村居民收入区域差异持续上升,说明对经济发展已经构成障碍,这要求政府在经济发展过程中,通过各种措施缩减农村居民收入区域差异、实现共同富裕目标,妥善处理好经济发展与农村居民收入区域差异的关系,不能只考虑当前经济发展而忽视农村长久的稳定和繁荣。第五,通过模型对江苏省农村居民收入差异变动趋势和影响因素进行实证分析,主要从微观层面上探讨农村居民收入区域差异的影响因素。主要结论是:区域农村居民收入基尼系数的变动趋势在数学意义上并没有表现出成廉姆森倒U型曲线特征,说明农村居民收入区域差异并不必然随着收入水平的上升而无条件下降;非农就业、公路密度的增加可以使农村居民区域收入差异变大;农业支出、教育支出、资本密集度的增加使农村居民区域收入差异变小。第六,研究了发达国家缩小农村居民收入区域差异的经验,得到的启发是:要运用各种措施扶持农业发展,提高农民素质,使务农人员的收入大幅提升;发展农村工业;援助落后区域,促进区域协调发展;大力促进农村劳动力转移。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the course of reform drive starting from 1978, alongside rapid increase of Chinese national income, the pattern of income distribution has evolved from serious egalitarianism during the planned economy to serious income disparity at present. The problem of income gap of rural residents has become rather prominent. Especially, the inter-regional income gap of rural areas has widened by 2.8 folds from 1981 to 2002, a growth much higher than that of income gap between rural areas and urban areas as well as inter-regional income gap among cities and towns. As a result, many studies on income gap of Chinese rural residents have been carried out by scholars at home and abroad from various viewpoints. Honestly speaking, these studies provide us many discerning observation and explanation concerning income gap of Chinese rural residents emerged from rural reform, greatly enriching our understanding in the aspect. However, because most scholars focused on macro-income gap between regions and provinces, few scholars paid their attention on the problem of income gap of rural residents within a single province. It is obviously imperfect.Jiangsu Province, as an economic powerhouse in eastern coastal region, has made remarkable achievements in various social and economic undertakings. At the same time, like most regions in China, it is facing constriction of deep-rooted contradiction in the further development, especially the widening of regional income gap of rural residents, sluggish pace of constructing a well-off society in rural areas. Undeniably, appropriate regional income gap of rural residents plays a positive role in promoting regional socio-economic development, and due inter-regional income gap is a guarantee for economic efficiency. Advantage cannot exist without gap. As a consequence, so-called inter-regional comparative advantage cannot be realized. However, the widening of regional income gap can bring about many problems for underdeveloped regions such as outflow of much-needed investment capital, exodus of professionals, resulting to further stagnation of regional economy and vicious circle. Therefore, we should have enough understanding on socio-economic effect of undue widening of regional income gap of rural areas. We have no reason to stand passively. Rather, we should actively regulate and perfect policy and objectives of regional development to control inter-regional income gap of present rural areas in Jiangsu Province to a certain scope. Inter-regional gap should facilitate, rather than hinder, inter-regional economic development. In the economically developed Jiangsu Province, unbalanced pattern in terms of economy, culture and society has badly obstructed realization of constructing a well-off society in an all-round way. Under the circumstances, it is of great actual significance to carry out research on regional income gap of rural residents. Meanwhile, the research is of strategic importance to such aspects as realizing transformation of society as a whole in Jiangsu Province, translating an economically big province into an economically powerful province, accelerating construction of a well-off society in rural areas in Jiangsu Province, ensuring sustainable, rapid, healthy socio-economic development of the province as a whole.On basis of previous research by other scholars, the dissertation tries to take Jiangsu Province as an example to systematically and profoundly research regional income gap of rural residents of Jiangsu Province and its determinants. It aims to seek a breakthrough for coordinated development of rural region of Jiangsu Province, to determine guideline, policy and measures for the development so as to ensure realization of the objective of constructing an all-round well-off society in Jiangsu Province.The main contents and basic conclusions of the dissertation are as follows:Firstly, the dissertation makes analysis on historical circumstance and causes of income gap of rural residents in Jiangsu Province. As early as the period of Southern Song Dynasty, the superiority of south over north in rural areas of Jiangsu Province had been formed. From birth of New China to eve of reform and opening-up drive, income of rural residents was characterized by the pattern of slow and balanced development. Regional gap was not so striking. Since reform and opening-up drive, rural economy of Jiangsu Province has developed in an unbalanced way. Income gap of rural residents in southern part, intermediate part and northern part of the Province has witnessed the process of widening, de-widening and re-widening. Generally speaking, however, absolute gap has been widening. The evolution of income structure of rural residents of Jiangsu Province bears obvious regional mark. Apart from ever widening general income gap, the gap of structure of income sources of rural residents is even more remarkable, which is mainly manifested in salary income and domestic operation income. The income gap of rural residents in Jiangsu Province is principally caused by the following factors: constraint of locality and traffic; influence of human resources and household burden; fetter of informal rules in terms of cultural tradition, ideology, etc.; differentiation of agricultural industrialization; degree of perfecting of land circulation and speed of agricultural development; inequality of growth of rural grassroots organization.Secondly, the dissertation systematically investigates regional income gap of rural residents of Jiangsu Province from 1984 to 2005.Then, it classifies regional income gap of rural residents of Jiangsu Province using Theil index, the variance coefficient and Gini coefficient, analyzing origin of regional income gap of rural residents. At last, it orderly analyzes a convergence, absoluteβconvergence and conditionalβconvergence, further using judging methods of a convergence andβconvergence. Main conclusions: Studies from three different levels indicate that the absolute regional income gap of rural residents of Jiangsu Province demonstrates the ever widening momentum, while regional relative gap is generally on the average, showing the momentum of increase with fluctuation in recent years. In the composition of regional general gap, the determinant is always inter-regional gap including gap among southern part, intermediate part and northern part of Jiangsu Province as well as gap among 13 cities. Income gap of rural residents is decomposed in accordance with decomposing formula of Gini coefficient. Economic factors and demographic factors affecting income gap of rural residents in three major regions and thirteen cities are investigated respectively. In any major region or city, Gini coefficient in different years comes from contribution of economic factors whereas contribution of demographic factors is negative in every year with its absolute number being fewer. Income of rural residents of Jiangsu Province from 1985 to 2005 (three levels) does not showσconvergence as a whole, while income of rural residents of Jiangsu Province indicates apparent absoluteβconvergence in most periods. However, it is not ideal in terms of estimating effect from models. There are conditional convergence at three levels of Jiangsu Province including 64 counties, 13 cities and 3 major regions. Furthermore, there are also conditional convergence within regions such as southern part, intermediate part and northern part of Jiangsu Province.Thirdly, the dissertation analyzes regional income mobility of rural residents using mobility matrix, income mobility index and P index. Main conclusions: The income mobility of rural residents of Jiangsu Province becomes diminished, and regional rural income of Jiangsu Province is void of mobility. From trend of time, all three levels show some of fluctuation in terms of functions of regional income mobility of rural residents on regional income gap. Fourthly, aided by software of SPSS13 and Eviews5.0, employing such methods as analysis on main composition and H-P filtration, the dissertation makes co-integration, Granger-causality and impulse response on economic development and regional income gap of rural residents of Jiangsu Province. It also explores the possibility of long-term, stable co-integration and causation between economic development and regional income gap of rural residents of Jiangsu Province as well as their interplay process and direction. Main conclusions: Experiment of co-integration and Granger-causality shows that in any part of Jiangsu Province including 64 counties, 13 cities and 3 major regions, there are long-term, stable co-integration and bilateral causality between economic development and regional income gap of rural residents of Jiangsu Province, which have soundness. Further impulse response indicates that although economic development is also a cause for regional income gap of rural residents, economic development will further widen the gap in medium-and-long-term. In return, the gap will play a passive and destructive role in economic development. The ever widening gap in recent years in Jiangsu Province poses a threat to economic development. It is necessary for governments to take various measures to narrow the gap and realize the objective of common prosperity. Governments should properly handle the relationship between economic development and regional income gap of rural residents. It is unwise to merely consider economic development at present while neglect long-term stability and prosperity in rural areas.Fifthly, the dissertation makes through models empirical analysis on tendency and determinants of income gap of rural residents of Jiangsu Province.Main conclusions: In mathematic sense, the tendency of Gini coefficient of regional income of rural residents of Jiangsu Province does not show the character of Williamson inverted U-shaped curve, which indicates that along with raise of income level, regional income gap of rural residents will not necessarily fall without any conditions. Increase in agricultural expenditure, non-agricultural employment, and highway density can widen the gap, while increase in educational expenditure, capital intensity can narrow the gap.Sixthly, the dissertation studies the experience of developed countries in reducing regional gap of rural residents. The enlightenment from the study is listed below: to take various measures to support agricultural development, to improve quality of farmers, to greatly raise income of farmers engaging in agriculture; to develop agricultural industrialization; to aid backward regions to promote regional coordinated development; to push forward mobility of rural labor.更多还原