【作者】 杨兴龙；

【导师】 王凯；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 近10年来,我国玉米加工业发展迅速,其发展速度已远高于美国等国家。我国玉米加工业的快速发展,有效地调动了农民种植积极性,带动了玉米种植业的发展,对引导农业结构调整、促进农民增收、农业增效、推动地方经济发展都起到了积极的作用。但是,近年来一些地区出现了玉米加工能力扩张过快、低水平盲目建设严重、加工转化利用效率低等问题。如不加以引导,不仅玉米加工业难于健康发展,还将引发粮食总量和结构问题(国家发展改革委,2006),因此,我国玉米加工业的发展迫切需要加强引导。解决现阶段我国部分地区玉米加工业存在问题的关键是要调整玉米加工业的产业结构和提高玉米加工业的转化效率。调整玉米加工业的产业结构应以玉米加工业竞争力的研究为基础和依据(因为在结构调整中发展什么,稳定什么,压缩什么,其基本依据是玉米加工业的产业竞争力),而效率是竞争力的集中体现,所以要研究玉米加工业的竞争力问题,就有必要分析玉米加工业的效率状况。因此,为对玉米加工业进行结构调整、提高玉米加工业的转化效率,促进玉米加工业健康持续发展,有必要从效率(包括全要素生产率和技术效率)的视角来研究玉米加工业的竞争力问题。吉林省是我国重要的玉米生产基地和玉米输出大省,近年来,吉林省玉米的总产量、商品量、出口量、外调量等都位居全国首位。而且近10年来,吉林省的玉米加工业发展非常迅速,2007年底吉林省的玉米加工企业已达580余家,那么,对于我国部分地区玉米加工业所出现的低水平重复建设严重、加工转化利用效率低等问题,吉林省的玉米加工业是否也存在呢?吉林省玉米加工业的竞争力状况及趋势如何?效率是否是吉林省玉米加工业竞争力的重要影响因素?本文通过对吉林省及各对比省份玉米加工产业的全要素生产率(TFP)、技术效率(TE)、比较优势和市场竞争力进行测算分析,来判断吉林省玉米加工业的转化效率与竞争力状况,并验证效率是吉林省玉米加工业竞争力的重要影响因素,通过构建Tobit模型实证分析出玉米加工业技术效率的影响因素,从而为吉林省玉米加工业生产效率的提高、结构调整和竞争力的提升提出建议。通过本文的研究,将为政府有关部门制定相关产业政策提供参考,有利于促进吉林省玉米加工业生产效率和竞争力的提高,有利于促进吉林省农业结构的优化和玉米加工业的健康持续发展。本研究以产业竞争力和效率为主线,结合玉米加工业的行业特点,在对生产效率理论和产业竞争力理论进行回顾的基础上,首先采用区位商(LQ)、市场占有率和计量经济分析等方法,对吉林省玉米加工业的竞争力水平及其影响因素进行了分析,并验证了全要素生产率是吉林玉米加工业竞争力的重要影响因素之一;于是论文采用数据包络分析法(DEA)考察了吉林省及对比省份玉米加工业的全要素生产率增长、技术进步与技术效率的变化情况,结果发现技术效率的缓慢增长制约了全要素生产率的增长;随后分析了吉林省玉米加工业的技术效率水平及其影响因素;最后,给出了本文的研究结论和政策建议。本文的主要研究结论如下:(1)吉林省玉米加工业具有较强的地区比较优势,但其市场竞争力较低。通过对吉林省及其对比省份(辽宁、山东、河北)玉米加工业的比较优势进行分析,从1998～2005年8年平均的玉米加工业总体区位商的测算结果来看,吉林(2.08)、山东(1.43)、河北(1.05)三省的区位商都大于1,吉林省的区位商最高且上升幅度最大,表明吉林省玉米加工业的地区比较优势最强,发展速度很快;而玉米加工业市场竞争力的测算结果表明,1998～2005年,吉林省玉米加工业总体的市场占有率虽然上升的很快,但其8年的平均市场占有率(4%)位于山东(12.72%)、河北(5.43%)之后,排在第三位,仅高于辽宁(3.64%)。(2)吉林省玉米加工业的全要素生产率(TFP)是玉米加工业竞争力的重要影响因素。由吉林省玉米加工业竞争力和TFP的相关性分析可知,两者在1%的水平上显著相关;并且吉林省玉米加工产业市场竞争力影响因素的回归结果表明,全要素生产率在1%的水平上显著,通过了检验。(3)吉林省玉米加工产业技术效率的,缓慢增长影响了全要素生产率的增长。从吉林省玉米加工业各子行业生产率增长的分解来看,吉林省淀粉及其制品业、饲料加工业、酒精制造业、白酒制造业全要素生产率8年平均的增长率分别为31.6%、13.5%、29.9%和9.7%,其中4个子行业技术进步的平均增长率分别为29.2%、10.1%、17%和-4%,而4个子行业技术效率8年平均的增长率分别为1.8%、3.1%、11.1%和10.2%,可见除了白酒制造业以外,其它三个子行业的技术效率增长都非常缓慢,技术进步构成了推进TFP增长的主要因素,所以技术效率的缓慢增长影响了吉林省玉米加工业全要素生产率的增长。(4)吉林省玉米加工产业的技术效率比较低,经实证检验,企业规模、资本密集度、产业集聚、产权结构等都是技术效率提高的影响因素。本文运用DEA的两阶段法,采用Tobit模型对吉林省玉米加工产业技术效率的影响因素进行了分析。回归结果表明,企业规模、资本密集度、产业集聚和产权结构分别在10%、5%、1%和5%的水平显著,这四种因素都不同程度地对吉林省玉米加工产业的技术效率产生正向显著影响,其中产业集聚的显著性最大。(5)吉林省玉米加工业的优势子行业为淀粉及其制品制造业和酒精制造业。将比较优势和竞争优势相结合,本文构建了选择地区优势产业的两条标准:①某地区某产业的区位商值必须大于1。区位商值越大,说明该产业的地方性比较优势越强。②某地区某产业的国内市场占有率必须大于全国的平均水平,即3.23%。市场占有率越高,说明该产业的竞争优势越强。按照本文构建的择优标准进行衡量,在玉米加工业的4个子行业中,淀粉及其制品制造业和酒精制造业为吉林省的优势子行业。基于以上研究结论,本文简略提出了三点政策建议:一是采取有效措施,不断提高玉米加工业的全要素生产率和技术效率水平;二是加快科技创新,不断促进玉米加工业的技术进步;三是根据资源优势和竞争力情况,调整玉米加工业和种植业的产业结构。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the recent 10 years, china’s maize processing industry is developing fast; its development speed has even exceeded that of US. The fast development of china’s maize processing industry has effectively stimulated the farmer’s planting enthusiasm, which also promotes the development of china’s maize production, it plays a positive role in guiding the restructuring of the agriculture, increasing the farmers’ income, raising the agricultural production efficiency and promoting the provincial economic development. But, some problems also exist, for example, in some areas, the maize processing capacity is expanding too fast, the aimless and low level construction is serious, the efficiency of transformation and utilization after processing is low. If the government does not guide, not only the maize processing industry is hard to develop in the correct direction, it will also cause the problem in the total output and structure of grain (national development and reform commission, 2006), therefore, the development of china’s maize processing industry urgently needs guidance of the government.The key to solve the existing problems in the maize processing industry in some areas at present is to adjust the industrial structure and raise the utilization rate of the maize processing. And the adjustments of the structure of the maize processing industry should be based and relied on the research of the competitiveness of maize processing industry, because we have to decide what is to develop, what is to stabilize and what is to compress according to the competitiveness in maize processing industry, so we should conduct the deep research to the domestic competitiveness in the sub-industry in the maize processing industry. Therefore, the final analysis of the restructuring of maize processing industry is to analyze its competitiveness, and the efficiency just embodies the competitiveness, as a result, it’s necessary for us to analyze the efficiency before we study the competitiveness of maize processing industry. Through the analysis mentioned above, it is necessary to study the competitiveness of maize processing industry from the perspective of efficiency in order to restructure the maize processing industry, enhance its utilization efficiency, and promote its sustainable development.Jilin Province is china’s important maize production base and it sends a lot of maize out. In recent years, Jilin Province’s maize production, the volume of maize goods, exports, and send outs are all rank first in china. Moreover, Jilin Province’s maize processing industry is developing very fast, the number of processing enterprises has reached more than 580 at the end of 2007, so we wonder if the problems that has existed in some areas such as the serious low level reestablishments, low efficiency after processing also exist in Jilin Province’s maize processing industry? How are the competitiveness and its trend of Jilin Province’s maize processing industry? This article try to judge the efficiency of the utilization and transformation after processing and its competitiveness through the test and analysis of the comparison of jilin province and other provinces’ total factor productivity (TFP) (or simply call it "productivity"), technical efficiency (TE), the comparative advantage and the market competitiveness, and then select the superior industries in the maize processing industry according to the standard designed in this paper, analyze the factors influence the technical efficiency in maize processing industry through building Tobit model, putting forward suggestions for the improvement of processing efficiency, restructuring and competitiveness. The research in this paper will provide references to the government when they consider to constitute related industrial policies, promoting the improvement of the productive efficiency and competitiveness of maize processing industry, and promoting the optimization of agricultural structure and the sustainable development of the maize processing industry in Jilin Province.The paper takes the industrial competitiveness and the efficiency as the main research line, it combines the characteristics of maize processing industry and analyze the competitiveness and its influencing factors of maize processing industry taking the methods such as locational quotient (LQ), market share and econometric analysis based on the review of the theory in productivity and industry competitiveness, and at the same time the paper confirmed that TFP is one of the important factors that influence the maize processing industries’ competitiveness; Therefore the paper used the data envelope analysis method (DEA) to test the changing situation of the increase of TFP, technical improvement and technical efficiency in the maize processing industry in jilin Province and its comparative province(e.g. liaoning shandong and hebei provinces). It also analyzes the factors that influence the improvement of the processing efficiency and then analyzes the level of technical efficiency and its influencing factors of maize processing industry. Finally, this paper put forward the research conclusions and suggestions in policies. The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1) The maize processing industry in Jilin Province has a strong comparative advantage, but the maize processing industry’s market competitiveness is comparatively low. Through the comparative analysis between jilin province and other provinces (e.g. liaoning shandong and hebei provinces) in terms of their comprehensive comparative advantage, when we consider the testing result of the average locational quotient of the overall maize processing industry during 1998 to 2005, we can find that the locational quotients of Jilin (2.08), Shandong (1.43), Hebei (1.05) are more than 1, and the locational quotient of Jilin province is the highest and the range of its increase is the also the highest, which indicates that the maize processing industry in jilin enjoys the strongest comparative advantage and enjoys the fastest developing speed. The testing result of the market competitiveness of maize processing industry shows that the total market share of the maize processing industry in jilin grows very fast during 1998 to 2005, but the average number (4%) only ranks third, which falls behind shandong(12.72%) and hebei (5.43%), it’s only higher than liaoning (3.64%).(2) The total factor productivity (TFP) of the maize processing industry in Jilin Province is the important factor that influences the competitiveness of maize processing industry. We can find that they are remarkably related on 1% level through the related analysis between the competitiveness of maize processing industry and TFP. And the regression result of the influencing factors of jilin province’s maize processing industry shows that TFP is remarkable on 1% level and passes the test.(3) The slow increase speed of technical efficiency affect the increase of TFP in the maize processing industry in Jilin Province. When we analyze the decomposition of the increase of the sub industries of the maize processing industry in jilin province, we can find that average rate of increase in TFP of starch and its products industry, feed processing industry, ethanol production industry and white liquor industry respectively are 31.6%, 13.5%, 29.9% and 9.7% during 8 years, and the average rate of increase in technological progress in 4 sub industries are respectively 29.2%, 10.1%, 17% and - 4%, while whose technological efficiency’s average increase rate in 8 years are 1.8%, 3.1%, 11.1% and 10.2%, we can see that obviously the increase in the technological efficiency in three other sub industries are very slow except the white liquor manufacturing industry, as the technology progress constitutes the main factor that promotes the increase in TFP, the slow growth rate in technological efficiency affects the increase in TFP in the maize processing industry in jilin. (4) The technological efficiency in maize processing industry is Jilin Province is quite low, after the positive examination, the enterprise scale, capital density, industry concentration and the property right structure and so on are the influencing factors which influence the increase in the technical efficiency. This paper utilizes DEA two phases method, using the Tobit model to analyze to the influencing factors that influence the technical efficiency of maize processing industry in jilin province. the regression results show that the factors such as enterprise scale, capital density, industry concentration and property right structure are remarkable in the 10%, 5%, 1% and 5% level respectively, that is to say, they have positive and remarkable influence in the technical efficiency on different extent, especially industry concentration’s influence is most remarkable.(5) The sub industries that enjoy comparative advantage in maize processing industry in Jilin Province are the starch and its products manufacturing industry and the ethanol manufacturing industry. This paper establish two criteria to define a industry which enjoys comparative advantage combined comparative advantage and competitiveness advantage:①the localtional quotient should be more than 1 in a certain industry in a certain area. The greater the localtional quotient is, the stronger in the comparative advantage of an area.②the market share of a certain area should be higher than the national average level, that is 3.23%~2, the higher the market share is, the stronger of the comparative advantage in a certain area indicates. And according to the standard this paper establishes, the starch and its products manufacturing industry and the ethanol manufacturing industry are the two superior sub industries in the four sub industries in maize processing industry in jilin province.Based on the researching conclusions above, this paper puts forward three political suggestions briefly: First, take effective measures to enhance the TFP and technical efficiency in maize processing industry. Second, speed up scientific innovation and promote the technical progress in maize processing industry. Third, adjust the industrial structure of maize processing industry and maize planting industry.更多还原