【作者】 蒋逸民；

【导师】 王凯；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 本研究首先分析了我国棉花进出口贸易和国际竞争的基本状况,然后,基于从棉种到皮棉加工整条棉花产业链,以竞争优势理论为基础,提出皮棉国际竞争力的形成机理假说,并利用美国棉花产业相关数据加以实证检验。在此基础上,对世界主要产棉国竞争力及其影响因素进行分层比较,揭示各国棉花产业竞争力形成过程中的优劣长短,发现我国棉花国际竞争中存在的问题。从世界棉花进出口贸易发展和国际竞争状况看:世界棉花供求大体平衡,生产和消费稳定增长。依据各国在国际棉花市场供求平衡中的地位不同,可以将其分成三种类型:贸易净进口国、贸易净出口国、净进口与净出口地位频繁转变的贸易调节国。美国、乌兹别克斯坦、法属非洲国家和澳大利亚为棉花贸易净出口国,其出口总量占全球棉花出口贸易的2/3强。世界主要棉花贸易净出口国具体条件和竞争策略有所不同。我国棉花需求主要是纺织用棉需求,棉花供给量除了80年代中后期以外长期不能满足国内需求。入世后,纺织用棉需求迅速上升,棉花进出口也由“第二储备”的地位转变为中国与世界棉花经济相衔接的枢纽。我国棉花进出口的发展历程,大致可以将其分为四个阶段。棉花进出口发展的特征可以归纳为:长期依赖进口;出口数量有限,20世界80年代净出口波动较大;棉花进出口贸易效率低、效益差;入世以后,出口迅速萎缩,进口量急剧上升。根据竞争力理论,本文认为:可以从竞争力的形成阶段(因果关系)、竞争力影响因素的层次、产业链不同环节的竞争力形成和风险收益四个维度来揭示棉花国际竞争力形成的根源。1、对一个国家的棉花国际竞争力的分析,可以从原因和结果两个角度进行,而原因具有不同的层次,于是构成了竞争力形成的三个阶段:竞争潜力、竞争能力、竞争态势。从结果看,竞争态势是竞争能力的结果;竞争实力是竞争潜力的结果。从原因角度看,竞争潜力是竞争实力的直接原因,竞争能力是竞争态势的直接原因。竞争能力可以分为竞争实力和竞争行为能力两类,无论是实力还是行为能力都可以从政府和企业两个个层次进行分析。因此,对棉花产业竞争力的分析由竞争潜力、竞争能力和竞争态势三个阶段构成。2、竞争潜力和竞争能力存在不同的层次。就竞争潜力而言,存在国际、宏观、中观、微观和自然五个层面的竞争力;就竞争行为能力而言,存在国家和企业两个层面地竞争能力。3、国际棉花市场竞争的基本手段包括价格竞争和非价格竞争两类。与之相对应,棉花市场竞争力取决于棉花成本和质量等非价格差异。在质量相同的情况下,成本低可以形成价格优势。棉花成本取决于棉种、种植和加工整条棉花产业链,因此,棉花价格优势的形成源于棉花产业链成本管理。满足纺织企业棉花质量需求,才能获得更大的市场份额,棉花质量是非价格竞争的基本前提。棉花质量优劣也取决于棉种质量、栽培质量和加工质量,只有加强对棉花产业链全程质量管理,才能最终提高棉花质量,获得棉花市场质量竞争力。对棉花产业竞争力的分析产业链维度由棉种、栽培和加工三个环节构成。4、从本质上看,上述三个分析维度,都是从棉花经营收益获取角度对竞争力形成的分析,换言之,是先分析获取成本、质量和收益的各种确定性因素,然后探讨其对竞争态势的影响。事实上,在棉花生产经营过程中,各种风险因素对棉花经营收益的形成具有极为重要的影响,因此,从风险角度研究棉花经营收益和市场竞争结果,也构成了棉花国际竞争力分析的一个重要维度。通过运用美国棉花产业的相关数据对影响棉花国际竞争力的直接因素模型和间接因素模型的验证表明:影响棉花产业国际竞争力的因素包括竞争能力和竞争潜力两个层面上的因素,棉花产业链上个环节的潜力和能力都对皮棉国际竞争力具有一定意义。因此,验证了上述理论假说。通过对世界主要产棉国不同层次的指标对比分析,得到如下结论:从竞争结果来看,我国棉花在国际市场上不具竞争优势,美国、澳大利亚和乌兹别克斯坦竞争力最强,其次是巴西。从竞争能力方面的几个影响竞争优势形成的因素来看,(1)我国棉花成本显著高于巴基斯坦、印度,与两国相比在价格上不具有竞争力,但是两国国内需求量较大,在棉花出口市场上并未形成竞争优势。(2)我国籽棉单产虽然较高,仅次于澳大利亚,但是这并不足以改变我国棉花在国际市场上的竞争态势,澳大利亚的棉花单产远远领先于其它国家,是该国棉花国际竞争力的重要源泉之一。而美国和乌兹别克斯坦的籽棉单产指标并不高,说明其竞争优势的形成并非源于土地生产效率。(3)从加工环节效率看,我国棉花加工效率较低,与澳大利亚形成较大的差距。美国和乌兹别克斯坦的皮棉单产仍然不高,说明其竞争优势并非源于加工效率。从竞争潜力来看,我国土地资源贫乏,人均耕地面积指数在9国中居第8位。澳大利亚和美国土她资源丰富,劳动力资源匮乏,这是导致其棉花成本高的一个重要原因。乌兹别克斯坦无论是在劳动力还是土地资源方面都不具优势。无论从劳动力资源禀赋,还是从国内需求对本国棉花加工业的影响来看,我国都是最高,印度和巴基斯坦居世界二、三位,然而,我国棉花加工业效率不高,表明了棉花国内需求并没有对本国的加工业起到明显的促进作用。通过对中美澳三国棉花质量、技术、政策和风险四个竞争力影响因素进行比较分析,得到如下结论:(1)我国棉花质量在纤维品质指标对比中,一部分指标优于美国,但是从最终皮棉质量来看,我国棉花质量缺乏优势。皮棉质量取决于从棉种繁育到皮棉加工和运输的全过程,我国棉花质量问题产生的原因是多方面的。自然条件因素使得澳大利亚和乌兹别克斯坦棉花质量优异,具有很强的质量优势。(2)在棉花育种技术和推广方面,我国棉业虽然取得了长足进步,但是,与美国和澳大利亚相比仍然存在较大差距。由于我国与美国、澳大利亚以及乌兹别克斯坦的棉业生产要素资源禀赋存在较大差异,因此,棉花种植业技术需求不同。测量技术因素在籽棉产出中的贡献份额结果表明:我国的非要素贡献份额远远高于美国,分析认为,我国农村的制度变革促进了棉花生产率的提高。在加工技术方面,我国棉花加工技术较为落后,澳大利亚效率最高。(3)我国棉花政策调控范围较窄,缺乏稳定性,税收政策一度成为棉花种植业发展的一个阻力。相比之下,美国政府对棉花的支持性政策很多,澳大利亚棉花完全由市场调节,政府政策支持比美国弱,但是棉花产业社会化服务体系完善,政府服务功能强,为棉花产业的发展奠定了良好的基础。我国棉花政策服务性有待加强,需要形成有效的政策服务机制,切实为棉农排忧解难。(4)我国棉花风险管理已经取得了进步,尤其在自然风险规避方面,成绩显著。但是,从实证分析结果来看,我国棉花期货市场并非弱式有效市场,与美国等发达国家相比,期货市场并不能为棉花经营者提供有效避险工具,我国棉花产业经营者承担着极大的风险,价格风险极大地影响了我国棉花产业的发展。在以上研究的基础上,本文提出如下政策建议:1、从微观层面上看,充分利用要素资源禀赋,降低棉花产业成本,提高效益;加强质量管理,努力改善棉花质量;提高棉花生产经营能力,强化棉花国内国际市场营销水平;加大研究开发力度,为棉花生产提供强大技术支撑。2、从中观层面上看,加强基础设施建设,改善棉花经济发展自然环境;优化棉花生产区域布局,充分发挥区域优势;加强产业链管理,加强产业组织协作;完善我国棉花期货市场;着眼于整条棉花产业链,加强产业支持政策的针对性和有效性;加强棉花风险管理;研究国际棉花竞争规则,科学制定棉花贸易政策,提升棉花产业竞争力。3、从宏观层面上看,完善棉花市场体制,促进棉花产业健康发展;加强法律和市场服务体系建设,维护棉花市场经营秩序;发展农村教育事业,提高棉农素质;深化农业科研体制改革,解决棉花科技与生产经营脱节的问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 Firstly this paper analyzed the basic situation of Chinese import and export trade of cotton. Then, based on the neat strip cotton industry chain from the cotton seed to the ginned cotton, taking the competitive advantage theory as a foundation, proposed that the ginned cotton international competitiveness’s formation mechanism hypothesis, and performed the real diagnosis examination using the data correlating with American cotton industry. Based on this, the author compares the competitive power and the influencing factor of the main cotton countries on different laminations to find the strenghth and weakness of different cotton-producding contries. Then, the author discovers questions of cotton industry in international competition in china.Looked from the world cotton import-export trade development and the international competition condition, the world cotton supply and demand is roughly balanced. Production and expense are growing stably. Based on the different status of various countries in international cotton market, cotton producing counties can be divided into three types: Trade net import country, trade net exporter and trade adjustment country. The US, Uzbekistan, the African country belong to France and Australia are the cotton trade net exporter, their total quantity for cotton export occupies 2/3 of the global cotton export trade. The world main cotton trade net exporter have different concrete conditions and different competition strategies.Chinese cotton demand is mainly the spinning and weaving with the cotton, the cotton supply capacity cannot satisfy the domestic demand for a long time besides the late 80s.after entryed the WTO, the cotton demand of spinning and weaving rises rapidly, cotton import and export has transformed the status of "the second reserve" into the key position which links up for China and the world cotton economy. The cotton import and export development process of our country may divide into four stages. The character of cotton import and export development can be induced as: Long-term dependent import; Export quantity is limited; the net import fluctuated obviously in 80s of 20 century. The efficiency of cotton import-export trade is low, and the benefit is bad; after entryed the WTO, the export atrophied rapidly, and the import volume rised suddenly.According to the competitive power theory, this article thought: we can promulgate the root which the cotton international competitiveness forms from four dimensions which include the competitive power formation stage (causal relation), the competitive power influencing factor level, the industrial chain different link’s competitive power form and the risk income. 1、The analysis of a country’s cotton international competitiveness may carries on from the reason and the result two angles, but the reason has the different level, therefore it constituted three stages which the competitive power forms: competition potential, competitive ability, competition situation. Looking from the result angle, the competition situation is the result of competitive ability; the competition strength is the result of competition potential. Looking from the reason angle, the competition potential is the direct reason of competition strength; competitive ability is the direct reason of competition situation. Competitive ability may divide into the competition strength and the competition capacity two kinds, regardless of being the strength or capacity; it may carries on the analysis from the two levels of government and the enterprise. Therefore, the analysis on cotton industry competitive power constitutes of competition potential, competitive ability and competition situation. 2、competition potential and competitive ability exist different level. According to the competition potential, it exists the competitive powers of five stratification plane such as international, macroscopic, intermediate perspective, microscopic and nature. According to competition capacity, it exists competitive ability of country and enterprise two stratification plane. 3、The essential method of international cotton market competition includes price competition and non-price competition. Corresponds with it, the cotton market competitive power is decided by the non-price variance such as cotton cost and the quality and so on. In the same quality situation, the low cost may forms the price superiority. The cotton cost is decided by the cotton seed, the planter and the neat strip cotton industry chain, therefore, the cotton price superiority’s formation stems from the cotton industry chain cost management. Meeting the Textile enterprise cotton quality need, can obtain the bigger market share, the cotton quality right and wrong price competition basic premise. The cotton quality is the basic premise of non-price competition. The cotton quality is also decided by the cotton seed quality, the cultivation quality and the processing quality. Only strengthening the quality control of the entire cotton industry chain can finally improve the cotton quality and obtain the quality competitive power of cotton market. To the cotton industry competitive power’s analysis, industry chain dimensions by three link constitutions of the cotton seed, cultivates and processes. 4、looking from essential, the three analysis dimension above is the analysis which forms the competitive power from the angle of the cotton management income gain. In another word, first it analyzes each kind of definite factor of the gain cost, the quality and income. Then, it discusses the influence to the competitive situation. In the fact, each kind of risk has the great importance to the cotton management income’s formation in the cotton production operation process. Therefore, researching cotton operation income and market competition result from risk angle also constitutes an important dimension of cotton international competitiveness analysis.The direct cotton international competitiveness factor model and the indirect factor model can be confirmed using the American cotton industry’s correlation data. The confirmation indicated: The factors influence cotton industry international competitiveness includes the competitive ability and the competition potential. On the cotton industry chain the potential and the ability have certain significance to the ginned cotton international competitiveness. Therefore, the hypothesis above has been confirmed.Through the contrastive analysis of indicators of main countries which produce cotton, the author obtains the following conclusions:According to the result, Chinese cotton does not have the competitive advantage in the international market, American, Australian and the Uzbekistan competitive power is stronger than the others, next is Brazil.According to the factors of the competitive ability which has several influence on competitive advantage: (1) Chinese cotton cost is obviously higher than Pakistan and India. Comparing with both of these two countries in the price, Chinese cotton does not have the competitive power. But the both their domestic demand is so big in the cotton that they have no competitive advantage in the export market. (2) Chinese seed cotton yield per unit area is high and only inferior to Australia; but this is insufficient to change the competition situation in international market. Australia cotton yield per unit area is in the lead by far in other countries, which is one of the important basic factors of competitive power. But American and Uzbekistan seed cotton yield per unit area indicators is not high, explaining that their competitive advantage the formation stems from the land production efficiency by no means. (3) Looking from the processing efficiency of cotton, Chinese cotton processing efficiency is low and this forms the big disparity with Australia. American and Uzbekistan ginned cotton yield per unit area was not still high, showed that its competitive power by no means stems from the processing efficiency.According to the competition potential, China land resource is deficient. The average cultivated area per person index is 8th in the 9 countries. Australia and the US land resource is rich and the pool of labor power is deficient. These result in their higher cotton cost. Uzbekistan does not have the superiority in the labor force and the land resource aspect. Looking from the pool of labor power talent and the domestic demand to our country cotton processing industry’s influence, China is best. India and Pakistan occupy world second and third place. However, china cotton processing industry efficiency was not high, which indicate that the cotton domestic demand did not promote the processing industry in China.Four conclusions can be obtained by comparing the cotton quality, the technology, the policy and the risk of operating cotton in China, US and Australia: (1) China cotton quality in the textile fiber quality indicators contrast, part of them surpasses the US. But looking from the final ginned cotton quality, Chinese cotton quality lacks the superiority. The ginned cotton quality is decided by the entire process from the cotton seed breeding to the ginned cotton processing and transportation. The reason which Chinese cotton quality question produces is various. The natural condition makes Australian and the Uzbekistan cotton quality outstanding. They have the very strong quality superiority. (2) In cotton breeding technique and promoted aspect, Chinese cotton industry had made great strides, but compared with the US and Australia it still had the big disparity. Because element of production resources talent is different from china and other countries such as American, Australian and Uzbekistan, the cotton crop production technology demand is different. The contribution share from technique factor in the seed cotton delivers indicate: Chinese non-essential factor contribution share is higher than the US by far. And the analysis believed that Chinese countryside’s system transformation promoted the cotton productivity enhancement. In the process technology aspect, Chinese cotton process technology is comparatively backward and the Australian efficiency is highest. (3) Chinese cotton policy regulation scope is narrow and lack deficient in stability. The tax policy once became a resistance of the cotton crop production development. Comparatively, the US government provides many supporting policy to cotton industry. In Australian cotton in controlled by the market regulation completely. And the government policy support is weaker than the US’s. However, the cotton industry socialization services structure is perfect and the government service function has laid the good foundation for the cotton industry’s development. Chinese cotton policy should be strengthened and the government service mechanism should be improved to help people overcome their difficulties for the cotton grower. (4) Chinese cotton risk management had already made the progress, especially in the natural hazards circumvention aspect. Although the result is remarkable, looking from the empirical analysis result, Chinese cotton futures market is weak -like effective. Comparing with the US, the futures market could not provide effective refuge-taking tool for the cotton operator. Chinese cotton industry operators are undertaking the enormous risk and the price risk has been affecting the development of Chinese cotton industry enormously.The text tests the direct factor model and the indirect factor model which affect the cotton international competitiveness using the American cotton industry’s related data. The test indicates: the factors influenced cotton industry international competitiveness include the competitive ability and competitive potential two stratification plane. Potential and ability of the last the cotton industry chain link has certain significance to the ginned cotton international competitiveness. Therefore, it has confirmed theory hypothesis above. Looked from the world cotton import-export trade development and the international competition condition; the world cotton supply and demand is roughly balanced, production and consumption grow stably. In accordance with various countries’ status in international cotton market balance between supply and demand, it may divide into three types: Trade net import country, trade net export country, trade adjustment country in which the net import and net import status transform frequently. The US, Uzbekistan, France-African country and Australia are the cotton trade net exporter, its total export quantity occupies 2/3 of the global cotton export trade. Concrete term and the competition strategy are not alike in the world main cotton trade net export country.Based on the research above, this article gives the following policy proposals: 1、From the microscopic stratification plane, we should make full use of the essential factor resources talent. Cut down the cotton industry cost and increase the benefit. At the same time, strengthen the quality control, improve the cotton quality diligently and intensify the cotton’s production and operation ability. Enhance the cotton’s marketing level on the domestic and global market. We should reinforce the research development dynamics to provide the powerful technical support for cotton production .2、From the intermediate perspective stratification plane, we should strengthen the infrastructural construction and improve the natural environment of cotton economic development. Refine the cotton production’s region layout and display the region’s superiority fully; strengthen the industrial chain management and organization cooperation. Perfect the cotton future market of our country. Focus on the whole cotton industry chain and strengthen the amity and validity of the industrial support policy. Strengthen the cotton risk management; study the international rule of cotton competition, set up cotton trade policy scientifically and promote the competitive power of cotton industry. 3、From the macroscopic stratification plane, we should perfect the cotton market system, promote cotton industry healthy development; enhance the construction of law and market service structure; maintain the peace of the cotton market; develop the rural education career to improve the fanners’ quality; deepen agricultural scientific research frame reform, and solve the problem of the produce operation departing from cotton science.更多还原