【作者】 王琳；

【导师】 王训练； 陈建平；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 地学信息工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 长江三角洲经济区是中国经济发展的核心地带,对其进行区域承载力综合预测与评价,对中国社会、政治和经济可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。本文以广义长三角三省一市(江苏省、上海市、浙江省、福建省)为分析样本,利用四期(20世纪70年代、80年代、21世纪初和2005年)遥感调查成果,并收集同等时期地理、经济、社会、人文等经济指标综合分析研究区承载力信息。本文建立的长三角经济区区域承载力评价体系分为支撑能力、同化能力和调节能力三方面,通过对土壤类型提取、水系和交通线的分布及密度等级划分、降水量和风速栅格数据的重分类处理、荒漠化和湿地的分布现状及变化趋势分析等,得到评价体系中的各项指标数据。以评价指标体系为概念模型,为区域承载力评价建立完整的空间数据库模型,利用生态足迹法及主成分分析法,对区域承载力评价体系中的各类指标进行细致地时间及空间上的分析。本文首次对广义长三角经济区的同化能力、生态足迹、生态资源供给能力、支撑能力,调节能力、区域承载力、区域承载量、区域承载状态及生态赤字情况进行时空分析和评价。获取长三角地区四个时期的区域承载量,得出整体区域承载力大小依次排序为上海>江苏>浙江>福建,其中上海市和江苏省为生态赤字最严重区域,浙江省次之,福建省相对较好。上海市处于严重超载状态的面积高达92%;江苏省严重超载的面积接近50%;而福建省的未超载面积最大,达到20%以上。拓展了地理模拟系统的应用领域,建立了基于神经网络的元胞自动机预测模型,运用基于神经网络的元胞自动机理论,对长三角地区未来的绝对承载状况进行时空模拟预测,获得2005年～2044年的预测成果图,表明长三角地区未来整体的承载状况有恶化的趋势,未超载区域不足长三角地区面积的3.59%,且有较缓慢的下降趋势。严重超载面积由2010年的28.36%升高至2040年的45.21%,超载区域在向严重超载方向发展,长三角地区区域承载力状况不容乐观。根据区域承载力现状和预测情况分析,提出发展建议如下:上海市应加强发展能力建设,大力发展轨道交通,加大政府投入和环境整改力度。江苏省要着重从土地管理、资源利用和环境监测等方面入手,克服江苏南北发展不均衡问题。浙江省应严格控制人口数量,提高人口素质,提高科技进步指数,确立资源消耗强度小的产业结构,积极发展效益农业。福建省要加大环境污染的治理力度,加快产业结构调整和优化升级,以减少经济建设对生态环境污染的压力,建设资源节约型社会。更多还原

【Abstract】 Yangtze River Delta area is the core zone of China’s economic development. The regional carrying capacity comprehensive evaluation and prediction is great significance to China’s social, political and economic sustainable development. In this dissertation, with three provinces and one city (Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian) as the analysis samples, the author utilized four period (the 1970s, the 1980s, the beginning of 21st and the year of 2005) of remote sensing survey results as well as geographic, economic, social, cultural, and economic data of the same period to analyze the carrying capacity of the study area.The regional carrying capacity evaluation system of Yangtze River Delta area was built, which consists of supporting capability, assimilating ability and adjusting capability. To acquire the evaluation index in this system,multiple soil types were extracted, water and traffic lines were identified and the density lines were calculated, precipitation and wind speed raster data were re-classified, desertification area and wetland were identified . A spatial database model was established on the basis of the index system, and ecological footprint and principal component analysis method were employed to analyze various regional carrying capacity indexes from the perspective of time and space.In this paper, The broad Yangtze River Delta economic zone’s assimilation capacity, ecological footprint, ecological resources supply capacity, support capacity, regulation ability, regional carrying capacity, bearing regional state and ecological deficit were analyzed for the first time. The carrying capacity data of four periods in the Yangtze River Delta region was accessed, and the overall ranking followed by Shanghai> Jiangsu> Zhejiang> Fujian. The most serious ecological deficit area is in Shanghai and Jiangsu Province, followed by Zhejiang, and Fujian Province relatively better. The area in serious overloading state of Shanghai get up to 92 percent and Jiangsu Province nearly 50 percent, while Fujian Province’s non-overload area is the largest, reaching more than 20 percent. Geographic simulation system applications was extended, based on the neural network cellular automata theory, the absolute load simulation and forecast of Yangtze River Delta region were carried out. The forecast result from the year 2005 to 2040 shows that the future carrying status will get worse: less than 3.59 percent area of the whole region under the no overloading state and the overloading area changing from 28.36 percent in 2010 to 45.21 percent in 2044. The carrying capacity situation of the Yangtze River Delta region can not be optimistic.According to the regional carrying capacity status and the prediction result, the author puts forward the following proposals: Shanghai should put great efforts to improve the development capacity, develop rail communication, increase the government input and improve the environment. Jiangsu province should focus on improving land management, industrial structure, resources utilization and environmental monitoring, and overcome the problem of uneven development between the north and the south in the province. Zhejiang province should strictly control the size of the population, improve the quality of people, increase the Scientific and technological progress index, and build the industrial structure with less consumption of resources. Fujian province should put more efforts to control environmental pollution, accelerate industrial restructuring and upgrading, in order to reduce ecological environment pressure during the economic development and strive to build a resource-saving society.更多还原