【作者】 李春华；

【导师】 张德会；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 资源产业经济， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 自从1996年中国成为原油净进口国以来,石油进口量呈迅速攀升的趋势,本文利用国家统计年鉴最近10年的客观数据,采用灰色预测模型和线性回归方法,得出2020年前中国各年的石油供需缺口即进口需求量,进口需求量逐年加大对中国石油的持续供应提出了严峻挑战,因此,石油进口安全的问题必须提到战略的高度来进行研究、规划。本文以石油进口风险为研究对象,借鉴前人的研究成果,综合运用层次分析方法、灰色评价方法、定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,以资源稀缺性理论、可持续发展理论、风险管理理论和期货贸易理论等相关基本理论为基础,探讨了中国石油进口的必要性,全面分析了石油进口风险因素,并进行了石油进口风险评估。石油进口风险内涵具有广泛性和复杂性,按照评价指标的选取原则,本文通过分析影响石油进口安全的各项因素,从进口源地风险、进口价格风险、进口运输风险和应急保障风险等角度建立了石油进口风险评价指标体系。石油进口风险的评价指标常常是一些定性指标,而且这些指标是多层次的、复杂的。对于这种评价问题,很难完全排除人为因素带来的偏差,这就使得评价信息不甚确切、不甚完全,具有灰色性。所以,对于这类评价问题本文运用灰色理论进行评价。综合运用灰色系统理论和层次分析法,建立了灰色多层次评价模型用以定量地评价石油进口风险,并将该评估模型应用于日本和中国两个国家,结果表明日本和中国石油进口的风险较高,同时得出两国的运输风险和价格风险值较高,这两个风险因素应予以重点关注、防范。与其它评价方法相比,本方法最大限度利用了各种灰类程度的评价信息,避免了评价结果失效问题,而且在评价精度上也优于模糊综合评价等方法,因此适于在石油进口风险评价中应用。借鉴国外石油进口风险防范经验,从风险管理的角度提出了中国石油进口风险的具体防范对策;最后,就当前金融危机对石油进口的影响进行了讨论;总结了通过本文研究得出的几点结论,对国家能源政策研究与决策部门提出了几点建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 China has become the crude oil net importer since 1996. The petroleum import volume shows a rapid increase trend. This article applies the recent 10 years objective data of the National Statistical Yearbook to the grey forecast model and the linear regression method. The yearly gap between China’s oil supply and demand before 2020 is obtained, which is the import demand. The import demand enlarges year by year, which presents the great challenge to China’s oil continuous supply. Therefore, the issue of petroleum import security must be raised to a strategic level to research and plan.This thesis takes the petroleum import risk as the object of study. It refers to previous research results. It uses comprehensive methods of the analytic hierarchy process, the grey assessment, the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. On the basis of related elementary theories of resources scarcity, sustainable development, risk management and futures trading, the necessity of China petroleum import is discussed, risk factors are analyzed comprehensively, and petroleum import risk is evaluated.The petroleum import risk connotation has the universality and the complexity. According to the selection principle of evaluating indicators, this thesis has set up the petroleum import risk assessment indicator system from import source risk, import price risk, import transportation risk and emergency safeguard risk by analysis of influence petroleum import security’s factors.The petroleum import risk’s evaluating indicators are usually a number of qualitative. And these indicators are multi-layered and complex. Regarding this kind of appraisal problem, it is very difficult to remove the deviation completely caused by human factors. This causes the appraisal information to be not accurate, not completely real. It is grey. Therefore, this thesis utilizes the grey theory to evaluate this kind of appraisal problem. On the basis of grey system theory and AHP method, a grey hierarchy evaluation model is put forward to assess petroleum import risk quantitatively. And the evaluation model is applied to Japan and China. The results show that Japan and China import’s risk are high. At the same time it reveals that both countries’ transportation risk and price risk are high. These two risk factors should be the focus to concern and to guard against. Compared with other evaluation methods, this method uses appraisal information of each kind of ash-type degree maximally. It not only avoids failure of the results of the evaluation, but also the evaluation precision is superior to other methods such as fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Therefore it is suitable for this method to be applied to the evaluation of petroleum import risk.Profiting from the overseas petroleum import risk guard experience, the China’s petroleum import risk specific guard Countermeasures are proposed from risk management’s angle; finally, the influences of current financial crisis upon petroleum import are discussed. Several conclusions studied and obtained in this article are summarized. Several proposals are put forward to the national energy policy research and decision-making department.更多还原