【作者】 徐长义；

【导师】 钟登华；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 中国正处于全面建设小康社会的重要战略机遇期,能源需求量持续增长,水电开发迎来了前所未有的发展机遇,但也面临水库移民、生态环境等难题。本文通过定性分析与定量分析相结合、理论分析与实证分析相结合、政策研究与案例研究相结合的分析方法,围绕水电项目协调开发模式和综合评价开展了深入的研究工作,主要研究工作和研究成果如下:(1)在对中国当前能源资源条件、供应结构以及未来能源需求的发展趋势进行全面系统研究的基础上,论证了水电开发在国民经济和社会发展中的战略地位和作用。大力发展水电既是中国能源战略的必然选择,也是中国经济、社会和生态环境可持续发展的必然选择。(2)水库移民关系水电工程开发成败,应坚持“以民为本”的原则,高度重视并妥善解决好移民问题。通过加强移民机构能力建设,做好移民安置规划,增加移民投入,完善移民补偿制度,完善政策法规,实行全过程管理等措施,积极建立有益于移民的长效机制,确保水库移民“搬得出,稳得住,逐步能致富”。(3)水电开发对生态环境的影响有利有弊,但总体上利大于弊。要高度重视生态环境的保护和治理,在保护中开发,在开发中保护,不断完善政策,改善措施,努力把开发水电对生态环境的影响降低至最低程度。(4)通过三峡移民投资对库区经济社会发展的贡献的实证分析,应用主成分分析法、投入产出乘数模型等方法,得出了三峡工程的建设促进了库区经济结构和社会功能的再造,但毕竟“工程经济”对地方经济社会发展的拉动作用是有限的,必须从更高层次考虑水电开发与地方经济协调发展问题。(5)提出了水电开发与地方经济的互动模式,即在水电开发过程中,统筹做好工程建设与基础设施建设、地方产业发展、移民安置的关系,以水电开发为地方经济社会发展引擎,从区域实际出发进行总体规划,确立适合流域特点的产业结构和空间布局,在国家的指导、扶持和社会各方的支援下分步实施,依托水能资源比较优势,发展特色优势产业,推动地方经济持续发展和社会全面进步。只有将水电开发与促进地方经济发展和资源有效利用紧密结合起来,才能在保证经济效益的同时实现社会效益最大化。(6)提出了基于随机赋权法的水电项目多目标综合评价方法,利用随机赋权法确定权重,与Monte-Carlo模拟结合,分析权重的变化对评价结果的影响,增强方法的适用性。对金沙江乌东德水电站正常蓄水位方案进行了综合评价,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性,可为决策提供依据。(7)提出了具有中国特色的流域开发与管理模式,在政府管治层面,制定和完善有关流域管理的法规和政策体系,完善流域综合管理机构的综合协调和管理职能,建立有效的利益协调和管理监督机制;在企业项目层次,根据流域自身的特点,创新“流域、梯级、滚动、综合”模式,个别较大的流域可以探索以某个较大主体为主的多主体协作开发模式。(8)提出了水电开发与区域经济社会发展和生态环境保护相协调的发展模式。针对当前中国水电开发遇到的问题,今后在水电开发中必须全面贯彻落实科学发展观,坚持水电开发与环境保护双赢、水电开发与移民利益保护双赢、水电开发与带动地方经济社会发展双赢等原则,努力把水电工程建设成为生态工程和富民工程,促进人与自然的和谐发展、经济与社会的可持续发展。(9)水电开发不仅是一个经济问题,也是一个社会问题,国家无论是在体制还是在政策上都应该给予必要扶持。针对当前水电开发管理体制和政策方面存在的问题与障碍,提出了操作性较强的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is at an important strategic stage of constructing a well-off society, which has triggered an increasing demand of energy. So hydropower development has seen an unprecedented opportunity and, at the same time, has to tackle relevant problems like reservoir resettlement, ecology, environment, etc.. This paper presents in-depth researches on the coordinative development mode and comprehensive evaluation of hydropower project using the analytical method of combining quantitative with qualitative analysis, theoretical with factual, and policy with case studies. The main researches and results are as follows:1) Based on the overall systematic studies on the present conditions of China energy resources, the supply structure and the future tendency of energy demands, the strategic position of hydropower development in the national economy and social development is outlined in the context. To accelerate hydropower development is not only one of the inevitable choices of both China’s energy strategy and its sustainable economic, social, ecologic and environmental development.2) The reservoir resettlement is of vital importance to the success of hydropower projects, so the principle of“priority to people”should be adhered to and much importance should be attached to migration problems to achieve appropriate solutions. Long-term effective mechanism beneficial to resettlement should be established by strengthening the functions and competency of resettlement agencies, increasing resettlement investment and formulating resettlement plans, compensation systems and relevant policies and laws, and carrying out supervision in the whole execution process etc., so as to ensure that the reservoir migrants are“willing to move, to settle down, and able to get rich gradually”.3) Hydropower development has both positive and negative effects on ecology and environment, but generally the positive overweighs the negative. Therefore, the protection and harness of the ecology and environment should be carried out simultaneously with project construction which can, in turn, promote protection through implementing relevant policies and measures to minimize the adverse effects of hydropower development on ecology and environment.4) The factual analysis of the benefits of the Three Gorges Project (TGP) resettlement investment to the economic and social development by employing the principal components analysis method and invest-output multiplicator method show that the construction of TGP has accelerated the re-establishment of economic structures and social functions of the reservoir area. However, as the economic effect of a hydropower project in accelerating the local economic and social development is limited, the issue of coordinative development between hydropower project and regional economy should be considered from a higher level.5) An interaction mode between hydropower development and local economy is presented. That is, during the process of hydropower development, the relationship between project construction and infrastructure construction, local industry development and resettlement, should be taken into account and planned accordingly. What’s more, by taking hydropower development as the engine of the regional economic and social development, a general plan should be made according to the regional actual conditions so as to establish an industrial structure and geographical distribution that suit the characteristics of the river basin which can be carried out by steps with the government guidance and support and aid from different sectors of the community, to develop advantageous industries with unique characteristics, and promote sustainable development of regional economy and overall progress of the society by taking advantage of the relative superiority of hydropower resources. Only when the hydropower development is closely related to the promotion of regional economic development and the effective use of resources, can the economic efficiency be ensured to maximize social benefits.6) A multi-purpose comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower projects is presented, which has employed stochastic weight assignment method to determine the value of weight, and when combined with Monte-Carlo simulation, it can be used to analyze the effects of changes of weights on evaluation results to enhance the applicability of the method. A comprehensive evaluation has been made on the normal pool level alternatives of Wudongde Hydropower Station on the Jinsha River to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the method and provide reference for decision-making.7) A river basin developing and management mode with Chinese characteristics has been put forward. In the aspect of management and administration effected by the government, relevant laws and policies for river basin management should be established, and the coordination and management functions of relevant agencies should be perfected to set up an efficient coordination and supervision mechanism of benefits. In the aspect of project development by entities, the mode of“taking a basin as a whole for cascade development of its hydropower in an integrated manner with generation revenues financing further hydropower construction”can be created according to the characteristics of the basin. For large river basins, the mode of multi-projects coordinative development may be explored.8) A mode of coordinating the development of hydropower, regional economy and community as well as the protection of ecology and environment is outlined. In view of the problems in the present China hydropower development, the scientific development concept should be observed in future hydropower development. What’s more, win-win principles of both hydropower development and environmental protection, hydropower development and reservoir migrants benefit protection, hydropower development and promotion of local economy and community etc. should be adhered to, so that hydropower construction will be ecologic friendly and life-improving, promoting the harmonious development of human and nature as well as the sustainable development of economy and society.9) The hydropower development is not only an economic issue, but also a social one. The government should provide support both in mechanism and in policy. In view of the problems and impediments in the present management system and policy of hydropower development, many feasible suggestions have been put forward.更多还原