【作者】 刘成林；

【导师】 赵黎明；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理工程与科学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 发展现代服务业是提升国民经济素质和运行质量的战略举措,对于现代服务业的发展、提升其他产业竞争力、改善我国投资环境都将发挥重要的推动作用。我国现代服务业虽然取得了快速发展,但仍相对滞后。本文以现代服务业的发展为题进行研究,选题具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。。论文对相关理论和研究成果进行了认真地梳理,对现代服务业发展的理论进行了深入研究,探讨了现代服务业系统构成,构建了现代服务业系统仿真模型,并以河北省为例进行了现代服务业发展的实证研究。论文在以下方面有创新:论文建立了现代服务业体系建设的理论框架,论文探讨了现代服务业体系运行的基础、发展的前提,保障系统正常运行的保障,探讨了现代服务业体系发展的变革力,建设原则,现代服务业体系的运行实施的思路,该理论框架的建立为我国现代服务业的发展提供了重要的理论支持。论文提出了现代服务业的系统架构,论文认为现代服务业系统属于社会经济系统,是具有动态行为特征的复杂的非线性系统,由五个子系统构成,子系统之间相互作用,共同促进系统的运行。现代服务业系统分成支持系统和增长系统,系统内部的因果反馈作用主要体现在支持系统和增长系统的互动作用上,文章对系统之间的关系及其运行进行了深入地探讨,对如何促进系统走向良性循环状态进行了分析。本文建立了现代服务业系统仿真模型,应用产业经济学的基本理论来构筑模型的基本结构和关系,应用数学工具来选择和识别方程式;在估计参数的过程中,应用统计方法和当地服务业的经验数据,得到相应的模型参数;运用数学工具提供解法,编制程序,计算模型。通过检验对模型的结构和参数做了进一步的修正。现代服务业的系统仿真,获得了丰富而深化的信息,为选择满意的决策提供科学的依据。论文进行了河北省现代服务业发展的实证分析,分析河北省现代服务业发展现状,存在的问题及其发展滞后原因,探讨了其现代服务业的思路,提出了对河北省现代服务业的可持续发展有重要参考价值的建议。论文的研究成果对现代服务业发展有重要参考价值,对于我国经济社会可持续发展有较为重要的意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is a strategic action to develop modern service that promotes the national economy quality and the riding quality strategic action, and it plays the important promotion effect that will promote other industrial competitive power, to improve our country investment environment. Although our country modern service industry has made the fast progress, but still relatively lagged. This dissertation has taken the development of modern service industry into account, which has the important theory value and the practical significance.The dissertation has carried on to the correlation theories and the research results, has conducted the deep research to the modern service industry development’s theory, has discussed the modern service industry system constitution, has constructed the modern service industry system simulation model, and the Hebei Province as an example development of the modern service industry study.The dissertation has the innovations in the below aspects: The dissertation has established the modern service industry system construction theory frame, and has discussed the modern service industry system movement foundation, the development premise, the safeguard system, has discussed the modern service industry system development transformation strength, the construction principle, the modern service industry system’s movement implementation mentality. This theory frame’s establishment has provided the important theory support for our country modern service industry’s development. The dissertation has proposed the modern service industry’s system construction. The dissertation has thought that the modern service industry system belongs to the social economy system, which has the dynamic behavior characteristic complex nonlinear system by five sub-system constitutions. The modern service industry system divides into the support program and the growth system, and the system internal causes and effects back donation mainly manifests in the support program and in the growth system’s interactive function, between the article carried on to system relations and the movement has discussed thoroughly, how to promote the system to move toward the positive cycle condition to carry on the analysis. This dissertation has established the modern service industry system simulation model, and has constructed the model the basic structure and the relations by the application industrial economics elementary theory, and has applied mathematics tool to choose and to recognize equation. In the estimating parameter’s process, it obtains the corresponding model parameter by the application statistical method and the local service industry’s empirical data. It has been made the further revision through the examination to the model structure and the parameter. The modern service industry’s system simulation has obtained the information which provides the science for the choice satisfactory decision-making the basis. The dissertation has carried on the Hebei Province modern service industry development empirical analysis, which analyzes the Hebei Province modern service industry development present situation, the existence question and the development lag reason, and has discussed its modern service industry mentality, and proposed has the important reference value suggestion to the Hebei Province modern service industry’s sustainable development.The results have the important reference value to the modern service industry development, and have a more vital significance regarding our country economic society sustainable development.更多还原