【作者】 张雪花；

【导师】 张宏伟；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 环境工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 本文进行了社会-经济-环境(Social Economic Environmental,SEE)复杂系统描述与评价、预测与优化等技术的研究和环境规划方法的研究,其目的在于提高规划对社会经济环境协调发展全面、科学和可行的指导作用,主要工作如下。首先,进行了SEE复合系统复杂性定位。研究了SEE复合系统内诸要素间的相关性和作用关系的复杂性,明确了SEE复合系统是个远离平衡态的、非线性的、开放的复杂系统。因而,SEE复合系统有着复杂系统兼具平衡结构和耗散结构的系统结构特征,以及输入与输出的响应关系有时超出人们经验的、定性的认识范围的反直观性和结果的不确定性的系统行为特征。其次,针对SEE复杂系统的结构和行为特征,进行了系统描述与评价、预测与优化等复杂系统技术研究和规划方法研究。(1)针对SEE复杂系统的反直观性和不确定性行为特征,提出了以下定量化模型方法:提出了SD-IO-MOP整合模型。SD-IO-MOP模型以SD模型为基础,以MOP模型为优化取值支持系统,以IO模型为经济子系统详细分析和资源需求精确预测的工具,该模型可以完整地描述SEE系统,反映系统中任一关键要素变动对系统整体所产生的影响;模型中考虑了地区经济结构发展的趋势性和稳定性,设计了当地决策集团和专家意见的入口。以SD-IO-MOP整合模型为工具进行规划优化决策,可提高规划的科学性、可行性和可操作性,并能够保证所选规划方案的优化程度,因此,该模型适于解决社会、经济、环境协调发展的规划优化决策问题。开发了SD-IO整合模型,用于SEE复杂系统状态评价,保证了评价程序的客观性和评价结论的正确性。评价内容针对性强,以约束系统发展的瓶颈因素为主要评价对象,保证了评价工作的时效性,可以为规划优化提供及时、准确的决策支持。开创性地将能值分析方法应用于SEE复杂系统规划研究。以能值分析方法为工具进行以社会服务为主型区域的SEE复杂系统状态评价,在不降低评价结果正确性的前提下,提高了该方法的时效性,改变了目前能值分析方法只能用于当前状态或历史状态评价的局限,拓展了能值分析理论与方法的应用领域。开发了ISMOP优化模型建立和求解技术,用于解决SEE复杂系统中的不确定问题,提高了规划的精度和可操作性。(2)针对SEE复杂系统的非平衡态结构特征,提出了以下SEE复杂系统的研究思路及相应的模型方法。提出了宏观、整体、微观三个层次的SEE复杂系统预测模式,揭示了宏观结构趋势分析预测的重要作用。该模式规避了目前SEE复杂系统模拟预测模型多建立在系统现有结构基础之上,而不考虑系统宏观结构改变对系统未来发展可能产生重大影响的不足,从而保证了预测结果的正确性。原创性地提出了经济联系强度的分形特征,进行了理论模型推导,将经济联系强度分形特征应用于区域宏观结构评价和趋势分析中,可以得到对区域资源高效利用的结构调整建议。通过数学模型推导,验证了SD方法应用于具有整体涌现特征的SEE复杂系统模拟的有效性,丰富了SD方法理论体系。最后,将以上SEE复杂系统描述与评价、预测与优化等技术和环境规划方法应用于“天津市水资源可持续利用规划”、“临空产业区水资源规划”和“生态校园规划”研究中,取得了满意的效果,验证了以上理论的正确性、方法的有效性和技术的可行性。实践证明了在SEE复杂系统背景下进行全局的优化调控策略设计与规划方案制定是实现社会经济与资源环境全面、协调、可持续发展的正确途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 To provide a comprehensive, scientific and practical planning that is necessary for the regional coordinate development amongst society, economy and environment, this thesis conducts the research on the description, evaluation, forecast and optimization technologies of the social-economic-environmental (SEE) complex system, as well as the environmental planning method. The contents of the thesis are organized as follows.First, SEE system is oriented as a complexity system reflecting the mutual and complicated functions amongst the internal elements, which can be characterized by the complicated system structure properties far from balance status and with dissipation structures, as well as the behaviors of which the input-output response shows uncertainty that beyond people’s experiential and qualitative cognition.Secondly, against the complicated structures and behaviors of the complex system, the technologies of description, evaluation, prediction and optimization for SEE system are developed.(1) According the counter-intuition and uncertainty characteristics of SEE complex system, the following quantitative models and methods are presented: SD-IO-MOP integrated model is established, which is based on the SD model, combined with the MOP model as the optimization supported system to get values and the IO model as instrument of extract forecasting of the resources demand of SEE. The model can describe the system as a whole and reflect the impacts to the system of all key elements considering the trend and stability of the regional economic structural development with the entrance for the local decision-making groups and expert, thus can be regarded as a useful tool in making optimal decision in a planning research for improvement feasibility and maneuverability of the plan as well as guarantee the optimization level of the selected plan.The SD-IO integrated model is constructed for SEE evaluation that ensures the objectivities of the evaluation procedures, accuracy of the evaluation results, and properness and timing of the conclusions.The emergy analysis is combined to the SEE planning research for evaluation the state of SEE complex system, which is characterized by social service-oriented function. In the precondition of guaranteeing the correctness of the evaluation results, this study expended the range of emergy analysis from the current method or history state to the future state of the plan level year.ISMOP model is also provided to dealing with the uncertainty of SEE complex system and improved the precision and feasibility of the plan design.(2) According the dissipation structures of the SEE complex system, the following quantitative models and methods are also presented: The importance of macro structure analysis is revealed, based on which a three-step mode of SEE complex forecasting is proposed in the macro, whole and micro aspects, avoiding the prevalent mode shortcomings that ignore the effect of the macro structure changes to the SEE complex system and guarantee the correctness of the forecasting result.The fractal characteristic of regional economic relation intensity in the typical areas is illuminated with theoretical models and logical derivation, which has been applied to the regional macro-structure assessment and trend analysis amongst cities and counties, resulting in useful suggestions for regional high-efficient resource utilizations.The effectiveness of SD method is proved in describing and forecasting the emergence of SEE complex system, thus enriching the SD theoretical framework.Finally, the technologies and methods mentioned above are applied to the project of“Sustainable utilization planning of the water resources in Tianjin city”,“Water resources planning in the Linkong industrial area of Tianjin city”, and“Eco-campus plan”. The results are reasonable and further verify that the proposed technologies and methods are effective and valuable for practical global optimized planning and optimization in accordance with the comprehensive, coordinate, sustainable development of the economy, resources and society.更多还原