【作者】 赵文智；

【导师】 韩文秀；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 本文在系统安全基本理论基础上,根据系统优化原理,研究了近年来的民航飞机事故,分析了类似事故再次发生的可能,因此提出需要加强监控与管理,完善设计、运行和维护过程。然后提出了提高航空事故中人员生存率的方法,指出为了减少伤亡,尽量加大预防力度。根据民航系统安全运行的特殊性,提出了在技术管理过程中,需要民航系统改善的如下几个特殊的问题。第一,估计事故生存率,在数理统计中的大数定理和随机过程中的遍历性定理指导下,分析了“协和”飞机空难,如果它采取中断起飞的决策,人员生存率在51%—83%之间,指出驾驶员和空管员应该把事故的影响考虑得更严重一些,防止出现损失最大化的结果。第二,优化座椅朝向,用力学的惯性与冲力的概念,对保险带与座椅的保护效果进行了比较计算,并对座椅前后设置保护头部的效果进行了比较计算,计算结果表明,如果使飞机客舱的座椅朝后安装,将提高对人身的保护作用100倍以上,达到了系统优化的目的。第三,用语音预警关键信息,提出了增加飞机自动诊断预警的建议,采用自动化技术,自动监控飞机发动机的状态,对不正常操作和参数进行报警;自动监测轮胎的状态参数,对异常情况自动报警;主动进行位置监测,对飞机的危险接近,给出自动报警。第四,挖掘跑道的速度容量,通过对“协和”飞机的转弯半径与允许速度的计算,提出了挖掘跑道潜力,增加跑道速度容量的建议,在跑道端头设置快速脱离道,允许飞机以较大的速度离开跑道,以减少对飞机的损害,提高对人身的保护能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 The civil aviation accidents are studied in this paper, basing on the system safety theory and the optimal theory. The similar incidents may occur in the future, therefore, the supervising and management for aviation safety should be reinforced, and the process of the design, operation and maintenance should be improved. Then, a suggestion of enhancing a human survival rate in the aviation disaster is proposed. Further, it points out that the more precaution measures should be made in order to suppress the incidents. Some specific safety problems are analyzed in detail. These novel ideas on which should be emphasized in the technical management, coping with the characteristic of the aviation, are as follows.The first, estimating the survival rate in the aircraft accident. If the“Concorde”aircraft aborted takeoff, the survival rate would have been at the range of 51%~83% in the accident, derived from the accident analyses basing on the law of the big number in the statistics and the law of ergodicity in the stochastic processes. It is pointed out that if the incident information were considered more seriously by the pilot and the air controller, the aircraft would not get the worst result.The second, optimal the orientation of the cabin chairs. The protection effect of the bolt and the chair is compared via the calculation of the inertia and impulse when the aircraft got incident. And the effect of the head protection in the chair to the different direction is calculated as well. The result exhibits that the protection ability of the backward chair is 100 times higher, and then the optimization is reached.The third, the voice warning function. It was proposed that automatic warning function should be added to the aircrafts, by supervising the engines status and the abnormal operations, by supervising the tire status and by supervising the obstacle position.The forth, exerting the runway capacity of the velocity. The idea of the exerting the runway potential and expand the capacity of the velocity is proposed after the calculation of the turning radius and the permitting velocity. The quick escaping way should be arranged at the end of the runway in order to allow the higher velocity in the accident, reaching the goal of providing more protection to human body in case of incident, and reduce the damage to the aircraft.更多还原