【作者】 黄雷；

【导师】 张彩虹；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 本文是以我国开发林木生物质能源及其未来产业发展为研究对象。首先,本文介绍我国开发林木生物质能源的背景:通过对世界能源发展趋势的分析和对林木生物质能源的介绍,提出未来能源发展成多元化态势,新兴能源逐渐取代化石能源,包括林木生物质能源在内的生物质能源是解决未来我国乃至世界能源问题重要手段之一,并且本文还简要分析了林木生物质能源的产业价值链。其次,本文指出我国发展林木生物质能源最根本的两条原因:国内能源供需状况和环境污染状况。国内能源供需状况方面,利用计量经济学模型和微分方程的方法对我国能源供需现状和长短期预测进行量化分析,提出导致我国能源短缺的根本因素,分析开发林木生物质能源对解决能源短缺问题的作用。在讨论我国环境污染状况时,结合化石能源消费和环境污染的关系,利用环境库兹涅茨理论和计量经济模型对我国未来环境污染的趋势进行预测,分析开发林木生物质能源与改善环境污染之间的关系。再次,本文探求影响我国林木生物质能源产业发展过程的主要因素:政策因素、资源因素、市场因素、技术与设备因素。政策因素方面,在分析我国现阶段能源政策和未来能源政策走向的基础上,提出新兴能源政策的形成机制,并以林木生物质发电为例设计强制性政策的框架,以及各阶段强制性政策的变化。资源因素方面,在介绍我国现阶段林木生物质资源的现状和发展潜力基础上,分析随着该产业的发展资源供给方式的变化,提出以能源林基地培育为主的资源供给方式,并从宏观的角度上划分我国林木生物质能源培育和开发利用的优先区域等级。市场因素方面分为能源两级市场,一次能源市场以木质煤为例,利用时间序列模型分析我国煤炭市场的供需,结合资源因素方面的结论,划分木质煤发展市场等级;并对优先发展区域展开实地的调研,由调研的实际情况来分析木质煤产品的潜在市场需求。二次能源市场方面,利用时间序列模型预测我国电力市场的供需,结合资源因素方面的结论,划分林木生物质发电发展区域等级;此外,本文还提出了对能源产品成本核算的修正,并在此基础上分析林木生物质发电在产业发展各阶段的竞争力变化情况。技术与设备因素方面,以原材料预处理过程与生产过程为主线,以林木生物质发电为例分析技术和设备因素对产品成本的影响。最后,本文分析林木生物质能源产业发展的现状,指出现阶段该产业发展的外部环境和影响因素作用差异。结合案例分析,讨论现阶段林木生物质能源产品的市场竞争力,运用风险模糊评价理论,指出案例的整体风险和各风险因素,提出风险规避措施。此外,基于林木生物质能源产品现阶段市场竞争力不强的结论,建立静态博弈模型和多目标规划模型,得出在约束条件下,政府在多目标规划基础上政策扶持产业发展的补贴额度。更多还原

【Abstract】 The research in the thesis focuses on the utilization of forestry bio-energy and the development of its industry in China. The thesis firstly talks about the background of forestry bio-energy utilization by analysising the trend of energy development in the world and introducing forestry bio-energy. In this part, the thesis holds that the traditional energy must be gradually replaced by new energy and the new energy is one of the most important approaches to solve the energy problem both in China and the world and discusses briefly the value chain of forestry bio-energy industry.Secondly, the thesis points out the most significant reasons to develop the foresty bio-energy industry: energy supply and demand and the enviroment pollution in China. The thesis describes the contradiction between the energy supply and demand, makes a forecast in Chinese energy by econometrics model and calculus equation and analysis the factors that lead to the deficiency in energy in China and the relation between forestry bio-energy and Chinese energy problem. The thesis also makes a forecast in Chinese environment pollution by Kuznetz theory and econometrics model and discusses the relationship between forestry bio-energy and environment pollution in China.Thirdly, the thesis looks for the main factors that influence the forestry bio-energy development: policy, resource, market and technology. In the policy factor, the thesis makes a discussion in the mechanism of energy policy and takes the forestry bio-energy generation as an example to design the outline of compulsory policy and its differences in every phrase based on the energy policy and its trend. In the resource factor, based on the quantity of the forestry resource and its potential in future, the thesis analysis the change in the mode of resource supply, puts forward that the principle resource supply will be from the energy forest and finds out the regions that have the priority to develop the forestry bio-energy industry. In the market factor, the energy market is divided into two parts. The thesis makes an example in woody coal and forecast the coal supply and demand in China by time series model. Furthermore, the thesis takes a rate in the development of woody coal market and analysis the potential demand in woody coal according to the results in observed regions. In the secondary energy market, the other part of the energy market, the thesis forecasts the power supply and demand in future and also takes a rate in the development of forestry bio-energy generation in Chinese regions. Moreover, the thesis holds the view that the current cost calculation system should be adjusted and analysis the variance in the competence of forestry bio-energy generation in different phrases. In the technology factor, the thesis discusses the cost influence by the technology and facility in accordance with the course of the material pre-treatment and production.Last but not the least, the research in this part focuses on the present development of the forestry bio-energy industry. With some cases in forestry bio-energy industry, the thesis makes a research on the competence of forestry bio-energy products and evaluates the whole case risk and many risk factors by the theory of risk fuzz evaluation and take some suggestions in the measurements that can reduce the whole risk rate. Additionally, since the forestry bio-energy products have no enough competence in energy market in the present phrase. The thesis erects the stationary game model and multi-target optimal model to quantitative the incentive policy in the constrict conditions更多还原