【作者】 霍保世；

【导师】 张明玉；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 经济全球化加剧竞争,快变的技术与市场导致产品生命周期越来越短,成功、快速的产品研发成为企业致胜与获取竞争优势的必然选择。但产品研发过程相当复杂,经济学家与创新学家视其为“黑箱”。本文就产品研发微观过程这个“黑箱”进行了研究,从技术演变视角出发,对产品研发的发生机理进行了探讨。本文对产品研发过程的影响因素进行了分析,阐述了产品研发底层因子和产品研发外部因素,阐述了产品研发过程模型、市场选择模型和复杂性,提出产品研发过程螺旋过程,研究产品研发的机理、产品研发技术的演变,构建了技术演变的理论框架。对产品研发项目风险的指标体系进行了研究并采用F积分进行评价,对产品研发的决定因素——人才的流失,采用随机过程模型进行预测。本文创新点有:1、通过对对产品研发底层因子的深入研究,阐明了知识、信息、技术与智因四个因子是技术攻关过程中的关键要素,论证了这些因子的发掘、利用导致了新技术的产生,这些因子相互作用导致产品研发的涌现。2、构建了产品研发过程的企业技术成长模型,阐述了企业在产品研发中,各要素的发展是不平衡的,产品研发最容易在资源相对优势中取得突破,然后再发展薄弱环节,企业就是在这种发展中不断前进。3、揭示了产品研发中混沌现象及其产生的原因,阐述了混沌现象几乎是技术攻关中的普遍规律,人的创造力在混沌阶段表现为明显的波动性。产品研发经历混沌后,便是新技术、新产品的涌现与突变。4、分析了产品研发中的技术演变形式,构建了技术演变的理论框架。提出产品研发实际是现有技术的遗传与变异,遗传是技术的继承,变异就是技术的突变与重组。提出了新技术形成路径。5、建立了产品研发项目风险评价指标体系,对产品研发过程中的风险进行动态评价。建立了技术人才流动变化规律随机模型,为技术人才流动变化规律研究提供了一个新方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Globalization of economy intensifies competition, while the changing technology and market shorten lifecycles of products. Therefore, successful and rapid research and development (R&D) is becoming an inevitable choice for enterprises to win the competition and obtain competitive edge. However, the process of R&D is quite complicated, being regarded as Black Box by economists and innovation specialists. This paper conducts analysis on the Black Box in the aspects of micro-process, and makes discussion on the occurrence mechanism of product R&D from the view of technology evolution.This paper conducts analysis on the factors in the process of R&D, elaborates the underlying factors and external factors of R&D, describes the model in the process of R&D, market choice model and its complexity, proposes the spiral process in the process of R&D, studies the R&D mechanism and the evolution of R&D technology, and sets up a theoretical framework for technology evolution. The paper makes research on the index system of R&D project risk and evaluates it with Fuzzy (Frequency) Integral. As for the determinant of product R&D, i.e. brain drain, the paper uses random process model to forecast.The innovative points in this paper include:(1) Through deep research on the underlying factors of R&D, this paper elaborates that the factors of knowledge, information, technology and intelligence are four key ones in technical research process. The demonstration of these factors’ exploration and utilization leads to new technology. And the interaction of these factors also causes product R&D.(2) It establishes a spiral uprising model in the process of R&D, and elaborates that in the process of R&D, the development of all the factors is unbalanced, and product R&D always makes breakthrough in the comparative advantage of resource and then improves the weak links. It is in this spiral development that enterprises constantly make advances.(3) It reveals the chaotic phenomenon in product R&D and its causes, and states that chaotic phenomenon is almost the universal rule in technical research, and people’ s creativity shows obvious volatility in chaotic stage. After the chaotic stage of product R&D, new technology and products will emerge and mutate.(4) Through analysis on the form of technology evolution, the paper establishes a theoretical framework for technology evolution. It is proposed that product R&D is in fact the inheritance and variation of existing technology; inheritance means succession of the technology, and variation means the sudden changes of technology. It is proposed the path of technology fomation.(5) This paper establishes a risk evaluation index system of project R&D, and makes dynamic evaluation on the risk in the process of R&D. It also sets up a random model of technical talents flowing change rule, serving as a new method in the research of technical talents flowing change rule.更多还原