【作者】 朱翔华；

【导师】 刘伊生；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 经济的发展和城市化进程的加快要求加大对城市基础设施的投资,提升城市基础设施的服务水平。然而,由于不同功能城市基础设施的投资管理部门不统一,造成对城市基础设施投资效果的评价缺乏整体性。同时,由于城市基础设施投资效果的社会性和外部性,使得对其影响因素的分析难以定量化;对城市基础设施投资效果影响因素的预控更多地也是从经验分析的角度进行。这些都在一定程度上阻碍了对城市基础设施投资效果的改善,不利于提升城市基础设施的服务水平。本文利用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法对城市基础设施投资效果分析方法进行了研究,完成了对城市基础设施投资效果评价、投资效果影响因素分析、影响因素预控的方法研究和实证分析。本文的主要内容概括如下:1.基于价值工程原理构建了城市基础设施整体投资效果的评价模型。首先通过功能分析建立了城市基础设施投资效果的评价指标体系,接着利用网络层次分析法分析了城市基础设施各子系统之间的网络层次结构,将专家调查问卷得到的指标间相互影响关系和相对重要程度输入超级决策(Super Decision)软件,运算得出各指标的权重,通过价值工程计算城市基础设施整体投资效果值。最后以北京市为例,对其十五期间的基础设施投资效果进行实证对比研究。2.基于系统理论分析了影响城市基础设施整体投资效果的三个因素:投资量、投资结构和各子系统投资效果,建立了结构分解分析模型来计算这三个影响因素的贡献率,得出结论:投资结构对城市基础设施整体投资效果发挥着越来越重要的作用,合理控制和调整投资结构对于优化投资效果有重要意义和作用。3.投资结构实际上就是各子系统投资量的比例,对投资结构的控制是属于事前管理的范畴,需要通过对各子系统的未来投资进行预测才能掌握。本文以北京市为例,利用系统动力学方法,借助于Vensim软件建立了城市基础设施投资的系统动力学模型对未来投资结构进行预测和分析,并提出了政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of economic and society there is an increasing investment demand for urban infrastructure. The urban infrastructure is comprised of different facilities such as transport, energy, and environment, etc. The fact is that all these facilities belong to different departments that leads to a separated management. There is a lack of research on the whole investment effect of urban infrastructure. In addition the investment effect of urban infrastructure is characterized by external feature that it is difficult to be defined and quantified. In the past scholars paid more attention to the qualitative analyses on investment effect of urban infrastructure, which results in a shortage of carrying out study in the field of looking for the deep-seated factors that affect the investment effect of urban infrastructure and exploring an effective way to improve its investment effect.A compute model is built up to work out the investment effect of urban infrastructure which combines quantitative and qualitative analyses together. Based on the result analysis of influence factors are carried out and the primary factors are identified. Then an analysis model is set up to predict the investment in the future which will give some suggestions for the decision-makers. Anyhow the main content of this dissertation can be summed up as follows.1. A model for appraising the investment effect of urban infrastructure is constructed. Based on the analyses of functions for urban infrastructure an indictor set is established. After the expert questionnaire is done the theory of Analytic Network Process and the soft of Super Decision are used to work out the weighs of each indicator. Thirdly based on theory of Value Engineering the investment effect of urban infrastructure is figured out. Lastly Beijing is taken as an example to carry out a case study.2. Based on system theory the three primary factors that affect the investment effect of urban infrastructure, namely investment volume, investment effect of each subsystem and investment structure it studied. Then the theory of Structure Decompose Analyses it used to work out the contribution rate of each factor and draws a conclusion that investment structure are playing a more and more important role in the investment effect.3. Investment structure is the rate of investment volume of each subsystem. Management and harmony of the investment structure should be carried out before invest activities. Thus a forecast of the investment of each subsystem should be done. Based on the theory of System Dynamic and using the software of Vensim a model to predict the investment of urban infrastructure of Beijing is set up. Investment volume and investment structure are forecasted using the SD model. And some conclusions are drawn and some policy advice are given.更多还原