【作者】 胡三明；

【导师】 卓志；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 保险学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 经过近三十年的改革与发展,中国产险业取得了令人瞩目的成绩,主要表现在:初步搭建了与社会主义市场经济发展相适应的产险发展与管理体制,形成了以股份制公司为主体、中外资和外商独资等多种产险组织形式并存的市场格局,产险公司内部改革创新与机制转变取得了不小的进展,产险为社会经济乃至企业与家庭的保驾护航作用日益突显,等等,总之,产险业不仅在金融保险业而且在整个国民经济中正在扮演着重要的角色,并将彰显和发挥更加重要的作用。在为取得成绩而欣喜的同时,我们不无遗憾地看到这样的事实和现象:不少产险公司重规模,轻效率;重展业、轻管理;重短期扩张,轻长远发展;“以保费论英雄,以规模定成败”的“数量扩张型”发展思路仍然根植于不少产险公司管理者的思想深处;困扰产险职能与作用的扩大与进一步发挥的因素和障碍需要不断澄清和扫除;整个产险业克服简单的片面追求保费收入与强调市场占有率,回归规模、效益、效率与风险平衡的价值取向,在观念和行动上更需要大力提倡和卓有成效的形成。当前,伴随世界经济的全球化、一体化进程的加剧,我国社会主义市场经济的深化改革与发展以及WTO协议的履行,产险业改革与发展的环境正在发生着深刻的变化,新事物、新思维、新制度、新压力等层出不穷,对身处该背景与环境下的产险公司的发展提出了不可忽视的严峻的挑战,对各产险公司的发展理念、市场战略、管理协调能力和改革创新精神等提出了更高、更新的要求,对此,产险公司不能视而不见、更不能无动于衷,因为市场经济和产险业的市场规则是无情的,置之而不顾,忽视机制转变和发展方式的进一步改革,将使其处于不利甚至被市场淘汰的局面;结合过去和目前产险公司的状况,转变其发展方式的一个紧迫而且十分重要的问题,而其中的产险公司关注效率、改变效率、优化效率进而达到产险业的整体效率增进,更是产险公司转变发展方式的基础内容与关键环节。另一方面,理论上,效率是经济学关注和研究的核心问题。长期以来,国外诸多学者展开了效率和产险公司效率问题的理论和方法的研究,取得了不少卓有成效的理论研究成果,对实践也产生不小的影响与指导。在国内,文献资料显示,已有部分学者对我国产险公司效率进行评价和实证研究,然而,系统的、有针对性的、理论与实践相结合的、开展中国产险公司效率及其优化的研究,其成果不多、分析欠深入、说服力不够强、方法有待改进,总之,大有深化系统研究的必要,着力开展产险公司效率问题的研究,理应成为我国保险理论研究和实务界的重要课题,具有十分重要的理论价值和实践意义。为此,本文选择中国产险公司效率及其优化作为研究对象,依托中国产险业改革发展的环境和变化,结合经济学、管理学、保险学和计量经济学等基础理论,运用定性与定量、规范与实证分析、理论联系实践等方法,展开了产险公司的效率与相关问题的探索,构建了产险公司效率的分析框架,选择了分析效率的适当方式、方法和模型,计量分析评价了我国产险公司效率的状况,讨论了产险公司的发展与效率和效益之间的关系,提出了一系列效率改进与优化的观点和主张。本文由绪论与七章内容组成,各章的基本内容概括如下:绪论概括了本文的研究背景和意义、研究范围与概念界定、理论工具与研究方法、论文架构与主要内容,主要创新与不足等。第一章效率与产险公司效率的文献综述。本章系统分析整理了国内外产险公司效率、效率变动及其影响因素的相关文献。其中归纳了当前分析产险效率的一般方法;回顾了产险公司效率与影响因素的相关文献,探究其采用的主要分析方法与研究变量;最后,对国内近年来关于产险公司效率的相关研究进行综述。第二章效率的一般理论及主要观点。本章从经济学的角度,对效率进行理论分析。首先,对效率概念进行界定,区别效率、效益和绩效的内在联系,对效率的内涵做统一的诠释,然后总结了效率理论的发展及不同学派关于效率的观点和主张。第三章产险公司效率的测度与方法。本章归纳总结了产险公司效率测度的一般方法,着重分析了数据包络分析法的基本假设、理论缘起以及固定规模报酬(CCR)、变动规模报酬(BCC)及曼奎斯特(Malmquist)生产力指数法的具体应用。第四章中国产险公司效率的基本判断与评价。本章结合中国产险市场发展历程、业务、财务状况等方面概括了我国产险公司的经营现状;其次,运用财务比率法(杜邦模型),透析了产险公司的效率现状;再次,通过对产险业的进入与退出壁垒、交易成本、市场结构、产权制度等全方位,多角度的分析,萃取产险公司效率的影响因素,为下文的进一步分析提供理论指导。第五章中国产险公司效率的实证分析。本章运用二阶段数据包络分析法,对中国产险公司效率进行了实证分析。首先,将产险公司的“生产过程”划分为营销和获利两个阶段,透视产险公司承保业务与投资风险的内在联系;其次,通过合理选择投入与产出变量,并运用于样本公司进行分析;最后,基于实证结果的分析,二阶段数据包络法更能有效刻画产险公司的效率状况。第六章中国产险公司效率及其变动的讨论。本章重点衡量产险公司的营销效率和获利效率及其变动情况,并利用Tobit及OLS回归分析影响产险公司效率变动及其的影响因素,最后针对各公司在不同阶段的具体表现和效率变动情况,结合回归分析结果,提出了优化效率的具体对策。第七章中国产险公司效率优化的政策主张与建议。本章在前述几章研究的基础上,结合实证结论,从优化产险公司效率的政策支持、制度建设和路径选择等方面进行探索,提出了优化效率的一系列主张和建议。本文的主要创新:1.在研究体系构建与分析的思路上。首先,本文选题是国内研究不多而有重要研究价值的课题,突出产险公司效率及其效率优化的研究,具有新颖性和及时性,适应了保险业转变发展方式的时代要求;其次,围绕产险公司理论与实践,构思有新意和创意,形成了自成一体的论文体系,较之国内过去同类研究,分析阐述更加系统和全面;增强了研究方法的甄选、研究指标的确定和样本公司的选择等方面科学性;最后,全文的分析论证紧紧依托中国经济的背景和保险业的实践,遵循产险业和产险公司的经营活动规律,避免了理论与方法的简单运用,更使研究具有提出问题——分析问题——解决问题的范式下进行,总之,通过研究及其成果内容,对我国产险效率的理论内涵与框架体系作出了有益的补充、扩展和完善。2.在研究特色与方法运用上。开创性地将产险公司的生产过程划分为营销和获利两阶段,并分别以2005和2006年我国产险公司的投入和产出数据进行实证分析,测度了各公司在不同阶段的效率及其变动情况,采用Tobit和最小二乘法(OLS)回归模型剖析了效率及其变动的影响因素。在这些研究中,有益的改进、探索与创新主要表现在:首先,尽管财务比率法和数据包络分析法同时运用于我国产险公司的效率分析,但是比较分析后认为数据包络分析法更能有效刻画产险公司的效率状况;其次,产险公司“生产过程”二阶段的划分,克服了一阶段的弊端,有助于刻画各产险公司在不同阶段的表现,深化效率的分析;再次,合理选择投入与产出变量,使变量的选择满足统计学意义;最后,将回归分析与决策矩阵有机结合,有助于各公司明确自身在整个行业中的具体定位,使其经营战略和策略更具针对性和操作性。3.在效率优化的政策主张与建议上。本文克服了过去简单的规范思维,结合实证分析结果,并以效率理论和中国国情为背景,提出了产险公司效率优化的具有指导性和独到性的建议:在宏观层面上,保险市场结构与产权结构等宏观因素影响效率,必须要有正确的产业政策和监管措施为指导,才能实现我国产险业的可持续发展;在政策支持上,强调监管的适度性和充分发挥市场机制的主导作用;在制度建设领域,强化公司治理结构的完善和市场结构的优化;在微观层面的路径选择上,纠正不合理的经营策略和经营手段,提高效率,降低风险;加大产品创新力度和资金运用来源和渠道的拓展,增强自身的盈利能力等一系列建议,这些主张和建议既是理论的有意补充和运用的具体化,又是对现实具有一定指导性和参考价值。本文的不足:1.本文由于部分资料取得困难,使某些投入产出变量以其他相关数据替代,若能采集到更为精确的数据进行效率评估,相信更能增加研究的解释能力及参考价值。2.就研究资料方面,未充分考虑质化资料。本文对于无法量化而可能影响产险公司效率的相关变量,如公司人员素质、市场导向、承保政策及投资政策方面等,限于研究的重点和问题的集中性,它们并未列入本文研究范围。更多还原

【Abstract】 During nearly 30 years of revolution and development, non-life insurance industry in China has made remarkable achievements, which include forming initially a non-life insurance development and management system along with the socialist market economic development and engender a market pattern consisting joint-venture, foreign-owned and mixed economy as well. The internal revolution and innovation of non-life insurance industry has also made big progresses and ensured the development of companies, families and even society. In all, non-life insurance industry plays a more and more important role in both finance industry and the whole gross economy. However, at the same time, we are regretful to find these bad facts, that is, some non-life insurance industry only emphasis on size, enlarge and merge but does not care much about effect, management and development in a long run. These traditional ideas are because most of the managers of non-life insurance industry think size determines the success. In order to change this kind of thought, we should forward a good policy which requires a balance of efficiency, risk, size, market occupancy and change the idea from both mind and acts.At present, with the globalization and world economy, the revolution and development of socialist of China and the performance of WTO agreement, the environment of reform of non-life insurance industry has changed. New things, new ideas, new institutions and new risks are appearing, which give a big challenge to non-life insurance industry and require more on develop ideas, market stratagem, management ability and innovation. Therefore, non-life insurance industry should face these challenges with developed idea. And on the other side, in theoretical aspect, efficiency is the key point. In these years, researchers have many researches on this problem and have achieved many good conclusions and ways, which instruct the practices. In China, literatures show a few researchers get some fruits in this field, and still lack a systematic, practical research. Therefore, research on efficiency of non-life insurance industry is in emergency.Under this background, the paper selects the efficiency of non-life insurance industry as our research object, considers the environment in China, and relates to theory of economy, management, insurance and econometrics. The paper also uses the method of qualitative and quantitative, normative and empirical analysis to explore efficiency and related issues of non-life insurance companies, construct the framework of efficiency, choose the appropriate analysis approach, methods and models, measure efficiency of China’s non-life insurance companies, discuses the relationship of development, efficiency and effectiveness and propose a series of views and ideas of efficiency improvements and optimization.The paper is composed by the introduction and seven chapters. The basic contents of each chapter are summarized as follows:The introduction summarizes the background and significance of this research, research scope and concepts definition, theories and research methods, paper structure and main contents, and contributions and further study.Chapter one reviews the literature on the efficiency, change of efficiency and factors affecting efficiency of general insurance companies at home and abroad. First, the paper summarizes the general methods to analyze efficiency of property insurance. Then, the paper reviews the literature and analyzes the input and output variables in the literature, as a reference for future variable selection. In the end, the paper comments on the recent literature of efficiency of general insurance companies.Chapter two analyzes efficiency from the perspective of economics theories. First, the paper defines the concept of efficiency and differentiates efficiency, profit and performance. Then, it reviews the development of efficiency theories and different arguments of various schools.Chapter three summarizes the general methods to measure the efficiency of general insurance companies. It focuses on the nature, basic assumptions and root of Data Envelope Analysis, CCR and BCC, and the application of Malmquist Productive Index.Chapter four first analyzes the present Chinese non-life insurance companies in terms of market development, business and financial status. Then, it has an in-depth analysis on the current efficiencies of non-life insurance companies. Furthermore, it analyzes the entry barrier, transaction cost, market structure, property right system of insurance industry and tries to find out the factors that affect the efficiency of general insurance companies, which provides theoretical guidelines for the further analysis.Chapter five has an empirical study on the efficiencies of Chinese non-life insurance companies with DEA method. First, it analyzes the production process of non-life insurance companies in underwriting and investment to determine whether two-stage DEA can be used to analyze the efficiency. Based on the analysis on sample companies, it compares the two-stage DEA and one-stage DEA and has a non-parametric test on whether there is a significant difference between different technological efficiencies of different attributes and in the different production stages. The results show that the two-stage method can better measure the efficiency of general insurance companies.Chapter six analyzes the results from the evaluation, with two-stage DEA method, on the efficiencies of various Chinese non-life insurance companies and the efficiencies changes. It focuses on the marketing and profiting efficiencies of the sample companies and analyzes the changes of marketing and profiting efficiencies of different periods with Malmquist Productive Index. In the end, it discusses the factors that affect the efficiencies and their changes with Tobit regression and OLS regression.Chapter seven puts forwards suggestions to improve efficiencies of Chinese non-life insurance companies. Based on the analysis of previous chapters, it explores the policy supports, institutional optimization and path selection to improve the efficiencies.The contributions of the research are as follows:1. Contributions on research system and analysis ideas. Firstly, the subject has important research value but limited in domestic research, measurement and Optimization of Efficiency in non-life insurance company, which is a novelty and timeliness of the insurance industry, which adapt to the changing environment requirements and changing times. Secondly, compared to the previous similar domestic research, the paper is on a more systematic and comprehensive, enhances scientific of the method selection, variables identify and the sample companies choose; Finally, the analysis relying on China’s economy and the insurance industry practice, followed the rules of general insurance industry and the business activities, avoid the simple use of the theories and methods, So that research under the paradigm of raising questions - analyzing questions - solving questions, In short, this paper made a useful supplement and improve the efficiency theoretical framework of domestic research.2. Contributions on research characteristics and methods. The paper is the first study to divide the producing process of non-life insurance industry into marketing and profiting, use the empirical analysis on input and output of non-life insurance industry of China in 2005 and 2006 respectively, measure the efficiency and changes in different phases, and use the Tobit regression method and OLS regression to analysis the factors. Firstly, the paper compares the methods of financial ratio and Data Envelope Analysis, which are usually used as proxy of efficiency of non-life insurance industry and concludes that Data Envelope Analysis is more effective. Secondly, the paper divides the producing process into two phases, which conquer the shortcomings of analysis of one-phase. The method is helpful to measure the performance of different phases of non-life insurance companies, make further investigate the efficiency. Thirdly, the paper chooses the appropriate the variables, which makes the statistics more meaningful. Lastly, the paper relates the regression analysis and decision matrix, which is helpful to locate the companies in the whole industry and make the operating strategy more practical.3. Contributions on suggestions for optimizing the efficiency. The paper overcomes the traditional simple normative idea, relates the empirical results and puts forward practical suggestions for optimizing the efficiency based on the efficiency theory and characteristics of China environment. In macro aspect, there should be correct industry policy and supervise measures to support the sustaining development of non-life insurance industry because of the effect of insurance market structure and ownership structure. In micro aspect, the paper puts forward some suggestions based on the selection of path, which consist of correcting the inappropriate operation measures good to improve the efficiency and lower the risks, making more emphasis on innovations of new products and finance ways and strength the profitability. These suggestions are both supplements to theory and good value to practice.The paper can be improved if the following problems are solved:1. It is hard to collect parts of the data and some input variables are replaced by instrument variables. If more precise data can be collected to evaluate the efficiency, the research can be improved.2. This research does not consider qualitative data which would affect the efficiency, for example, the staff competency, market orientation, investment policy and so on.更多还原