【作者】 陈健生；

【导师】 丁任重；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 区域经济学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放近30年来,中国农村绝对贫困人口从1978年的2.5亿人,下降到2007年的1500万人,贫困发生率从1978年的30.7%,降低到2007年的2%左右。自1980年以来,中国的脱贫人口在发展中国家脱贫人口中占75%——这是一个惊人的事实,中国的减贫成就举世瞩目。大幅度减贫的成效主要归结为二十多年长期保持的平均每年9%以上的经济增长。一个比较流行的观点是,当绝对贫困发生率降至一个很低水平时,经济增长便很难再对贫困减少产生作用,也有学者认为,当贫困发生率下降到5%以下,经济增长对贫困的缓解就非常小。我认为,当增长带来的减贫效应达到一个很低的点时,即减贫的增长效应进入类似“流动性陷阱”时,一旦落入这个陷阱,按照原来的扶贫方式,无论再高速的经济增长以及如何加大扶贫投入,对减缓贫困的发生也作用甚微。事实上,中国的扶贫开发目前已开始呈现脱贫成本上升、减贫速度放慢的现象。80年代我国农村贫困人口平均每年减少1350万,90年代平均每年减少530万,2002—2005年平均每年仅减少140万。这说明中国扶贫的增长效应正处于逐步递减的过程当中,由增长带来的减贫正在向贫困难以进一步下降的“流动性陷阱”发展。这种情况似乎预示有必要对现行扶贫制度和政策做出某种程度的调整。同时,经过近三十年的扶贫开发,中国农村贫困的性质与特点已经或正在发生新的变化,其贫困分布已从改革开放初的整体性贫困,经过向区域性贫困过渡,现正在向点状性贫困转变;其贫困特征正在从绝对贫困转变为相对贫困;其贫困类型正在从收入贫困转向能力贫困。当前农村贫困的特点主要集中表现在以下三个方面:一是贫困人口分布呈现地域收缩性;二是贫困人群具有脱贫波动性;三是贫困人口带有人口异质性。农村贫困的现状与特点决定了当前和今后贫困理论研究方向和扶贫政策取向。我认为,目前及今后一段时间,有关农村贫困问题研究应围绕三个方面展开。(1)贫困与环境的关系问题。目的是要在清晰展现农村贫困的空间分布条件下,论证地理环境的封闭性与生态系统的脆弱性对贫困的影响;(2)贫困的动态化研究。即将时间变量引入贫困研究,细分贫困的类型,分析贫困变化波动的内生机制与外部冲击因素,针对不同的贫困类型提出脱贫——返贫的制度安排与政策需求;(3)贫困与能力关系的研究。贫困人口“可行能力集”的构成与特点,异质性贫困人群的能力条件如何影响贫困持续的时间,怎样改善以培育与提升能力为目标并促进人类发展的方式与路径。以上三个有关中国农村贫困问题都面临一个贫困持续的时间问题。贫困的地域收缩性主要是指那些长期处于贫困中的地区仍然陷入贫困问题;脱贫——返贫变动机制只有在贫困时间动态中才能够体现出来;而异质人口的能力贫困这种如同慢性病一样的贫困本身就具有持续性贫困的含义。要想解决农村贫困的这三个问题,囿于现有的短期静态贫困理论几乎难以凑效,必须另外寻求新的理论框架和认识工具。本文研究的慢性贫困(Chronic Poverty)问题是国外学术界20世纪末21世纪初兴起的贫困研究的一个分支,它以特定地理环境为背景,以特殊贫困人口为对象,以贫困研究的动态方法为特点,将贫困研究置于包含生态环境、经济增长与人类发展的宏大框架下,系统分析和探讨贫困的长期性、多元化、波动性以及人口异质性。开展对于慢性贫困的研究,不仅有助于向国内学术界传播国外贫困研究的最新动态,更重要的是为处于减贫关键时期的中国提供一种有理论借鉴意义的研究思路和分析框架。中国不是慢性贫困国家,但是存在慢性贫困现象。立足于中国农村贫困的上述三个特点,本文借助于慢性贫困理论分析框架与认识工具,利用《中国农村贫困贫困监测报告》(2002——2006)600个国家扶贫工作重点县5年的连续数据共2390个观察样本,采用相对收入贫困的认识视角,即以扶贫重点县人均收入占该省(区)人均收入的60%作为参照标准,将处于这个标准以上的称为非贫困,1—4年内处于这一标准以下的视为暂时贫困,5年连续处于这一标准以下的认定为慢性贫困。在此基础上,结合我国农村贫困的地域空间环境,从界定生态脆弱程度出发,在厘清我国农村贫困与环境关系以及生态脆弱地区慢性贫困发生机制的前提下,从我国农村慢性贫困的空间分布及其多维描述、慢性贫困动态、慢性贫困人口异质性等方面,对我国慢性贫困的现实状况做出理论研究与实证分析,并且,针对开发式扶贫制度与政策的局限性,提出应根据不同的贫困类型采取有差别的扶贫模式。认为应在完善现行开发式扶贫制度基础上,配合建立保障式扶贫制度,构建一种新型农村扶贫的制度框架,并做出具体的制度安排和政策设计。除第一章导论外,本文分为以下七章:第二章国外贫困理论演进与中国农村贫困问题研究述评。分阶段梳理国外贫困理论从收入贫困到能力贫困再向权利贫困的理论演进的主要思想;中国农村贫困研究在过去十几年学者们关注的主要课题。从贫困研究历史的变化中总结贫困理论研究的特点与规律,分析现今贫困研究特别是中国学术界有关农村贫困研究的不足,提出中国农村贫困研究应实现五个方面的转变,并揭示出新世纪贫困的新特点需要呼唤新的贫困理论指导。第三章慢性贫困的一般理论、动态特征与本文的基本界定。包括慢性贫困理论一般(定义、特征、认识框架、贫困衡量测度)、慢性贫困的动态特征与本文对慢性贫困的界定。本文特别将慢性贫困划分为慢性收入贫困和慢性能力贫困两类,分别从相对收入贫困视角和绝对能力贫困视角进行研究。第四章生态脆弱地区慢性贫困的分布与发生。首先,在界定生态脆弱性和生态脆弱地区基础上,对慢性贫困的地域空间分布按照贫困的三种类型(非贫困、暂时贫困和慢性贫困),分别描述了各自的地域空间分布及其特点、慢性贫困分布的多维(如生态、民族及地域)描述,总结出多因素条件下慢性贫困分布的特征。其次,在分析慢性贫困形成时研究了地理与增长、环境与贫困、环境与慢性贫困之间互为依存、相互作用的关系,并从小农行为模式角度探讨生态脆弱地区农村慢性贫困的形成,还从静态封闭和动态开放两个方面探讨了生态脆弱条件下慢性贫困的发生机制。第五章贫困动态:慢性贫困、暂时贫困与非贫困。借鉴贫困动态理论,首先分析描述生态脆弱地区贫困动态细分的几种类型,把暂时贫困划分为致贫型暂时贫困、波动型暂时贫困和脱贫型暂时贫困三类,并对贫困动态中的暂时贫困和慢性贫困进行对比。采用离散选择模型(logit和OCM)对贫困发生与贫困动态作回归计量分析,以观察解释贫困发生的各类因素对贫困及贫困动态的影响程度。第六章异质人口能力缺失下的慢性贫困。借鉴森的能力贫困理论,对“可行能力集”进行分类并分析界定能力缺失的表现;探讨了能力缺失与慢性贫困之间的相互循环关系并提出贫困自然发生率的概念;研究了几种主要异质人口(如老人、儿童、妇女、存在公共卫生问题人口)的贫困发生率;并就如何提升贫困人口的基本能力与发展能力,从健康、教育和培训等方面做出相应的制度安排。第七章扶贫制度转型:从开发式扶贫转向保障式扶贫。本章在梳理中国农村扶贫制度与政策演进前提下,对广泛推行的开发式扶贫制度的特点做出评论,并对其在扶贫开发实践中的局限性进行深入剖析,认为单一开发式扶贫制度安排已难以对进一步减贫产生明显效果,针对不同贫困类型尤其是细分化贫困研究后,应将增长引发的自主性减贫、政策优惠的支持性减贫与社会政策安排的保障式扶贫结合起来,建立一种新型农村扶贫制度。第八章新型农村扶贫制度构建:基本框架与政策保障。承接第七章提出建立新型农村扶贫制度的设想,本章分别对暂时贫困——开发式扶贫和慢性贫困——保障式扶贫进行了具体制度设计和相应政策安排,并认为政府转型是成功构建新型农村扶贫制度的基本保障。本文研究特色的基础是对慢性贫困的划分。借鉴国外最新慢性贫困理论框架和认识工具,从区域长期收入贫困和个体能力贫困两个层面研究我国生态脆弱地区农村的慢性贫困问题。第一个层面:慢性收入贫困。从广义的相对贫困视角界定慢性收入贫困。慢性收入贫困就是处于特定区域的农村贫困人口连续5年陷入收入贫困的一种状况。它表明慢性贫困是一种持续时间相对较长的长期贫困,这种慢性贫困以地区人均收入的持续性变动作为衡量贫困的基础。因此,这个意义上的慢性贫困既是一种相对贫困,也是一种收入贫困。同时,本文将这种持续性长期贫困置于贫困动态中,与贫困时间持续在1—4年的暂时贫困以及处于相对贫困线以上的非贫困进行对比研究,在贫困动态中探讨慢性贫困、暂时贫困及非贫困的内在关系与转化机制。第二个层面:慢性能力贫困。从狭义的绝对贫困角度界定慢性能力贫困。慢性能力贫困就是农村特定人群因为能力缺失而长期陷入贫困的一种生存状态。它表明慢性贫困是一种如同慢性病一样的贫困类型,一旦陷入难以复元,反映了贫困的多元性和异质性特点。由于这种意义上的慢性贫困是由个体的能力缺失引起的,因而它主要体现为一种能力贫困。本文对慢性贫困的这种划分,既体现了贫困的相对性与绝对化视角,又包涵有收入贫困和能力贫困的基础性和多元化方面,是对贫困问题比较完整的把握。在合理划分慢性贫困类型基础上,针对不同性质慢性贫困提供差别化的制度安排和扶贫政策。在借鉴国外慢性贫困理论框架与认识工具的基础上,尝试结合中国扶贫重点县贫困监测5年的时序数据,采用统计分析及计量经济模型,并以生态脆弱地区为研究的基本场景,对中国农村慢性贫困问题进行整体性与专题性相结合的系统研究,无论从课题选题还是研究内容均可能具有一定的原创性。具体可能的创新点如下:1.本文从慢性贫困理论的收入贫困和相对贫困视角,利用全国农村扶贫监测报告的权威数据,以国家扶贫重点县人均收入占该省(区)人均收入的一定比例为参照标准,将全部贫困样本划分为非贫困、暂时贫困和慢性贫困三种类型,并与生态脆弱程度、民族和地域状况联系起来,研究我国生态脆弱地区慢性贫困的分布、贫困动态以及影响慢性贫困的主要因素,从中发现我国农村慢性贫困分布及变动特点与规律,这在国内农村贫困研究中尚属首例。2.受国外慢性贫困理论认识工具的启发,本文在贫困动态研究一章中,把暂时贫困细分为致贫型暂时贫困、波动型暂时贫困和脱贫型暂时贫困三类,并对暂时贫困在生态脆弱地区的分布、与是否民族地区及是否处于西部地区的关系进行了统计描述,从相对贫困角度来划分暂时贫困即便在国外慢性贫困理论中也不多见。3.根据我国农村贫困的现实状况,本文专门针对异质贫困人口的能力贫困作了专题研究,对森的“可行能力集”做出一定的拓展,将可行能力划分为基本能力和生存能力。在此基础上,分析了诸如老年贫困、儿童贫困、女性贫困及残病贫困的贫困发生率及其贫困性质、特点,也有一定的创新价值。4.本文提出并论证了“贫困自然发生率”的概念。认为在个体能力具备条件下,贫困并不必然消除,而是带有某种选择性,其政策含义是贫困不可消灭而只能控制。5.本文多次提到以增长带动减贫的“流动性陷阱”的概念。在导论和第七章,本文认为,通过开发式扶贫带来的自主性减贫必然会使贫困发生率下降到一个类似“流动性陷阱”的状态,一旦进入这种状态,无论如何增加针对摆脱收入贫困的经济支持,都难以进一步减贫,而只有将反贫困的重点转向能力贫困,依托社会政策的制度安排来实施反贫困战略,才可能有进一步减贫的出路。6.本文在系统梳理长期以来我国农村贫困研究文献以后,针对农村贫困研究的薄弱问题,提出实现中国农村贫困研究的五大转变,即从收入贫困转向能力贫困;从贫困的区域层面转向农户微观层面;从政府主导转向社区参与;从短期静态方法转向长期动态方法;从单一学科研究转向多学科交叉研究。由于慢性贫困研究在国外发展与贫困研究领域是一个正在兴起的分支,自身带有不够完善的特点,同时,这一理论在我国贫困理论与扶贫开发实践中的运用可谓刚刚起步。因此,本文的研究只是一种尝试性的探索,无论慢性贫困理论的整体引入还是结合我国生态脆弱地区扶贫开发的具体运用,都可能存在不少问题甚至于缺陷,本文的目的之一就是想通过对慢性贫困理论的尝试运用,为我国贫困研究和扶贫开发实践提供一条新的思路。当然,现在的这个成果还很不成熟,主要体现在以下两个方面:首先,本文的研究是初步的和框架式的,旨在通过对慢性贫困理论的引入,尝试搭建中国慢性贫困研究的基本框架,但是还没有进行深入的研究。限于统计资料以及自身的能力和学识,本文更多地是对慢性贫困理论框架和认识工具的介绍,并且在具体运用上也是围绕这两方面进行的,而对慢性贫困理论中的一些最具特色的内容,如贫困的跨代传递问题,本文没有涉及;对于慢性贫困的衡量问题,本文只作了介绍但是没有构造反映我国生态脆弱地区慢性贫困的数量模型。其次,在研究方法上,慢性贫困理论基本上是采用微观分析(个体或家庭)方法,研究同一个穷人连续5年及以上处于贫困的状况。要达到这种研究条件,必须采用家计调查方式对贫困个体或贫困家庭进行持续5年的观察,其调查时间之长、搜寻成本之高,对本文作者而言几乎是不可能的。为达到慢性贫困研究的基本条件,不至于出现大的偏离,本文采用全国农村贫困监测报告的数据,从相对贫困的视角,采用低于县级人均收入占该省人均收入的一定比例来间接衡量慢性贫困,这种方法虽然满足了慢性贫困理论的基本条件,但是,可能对真实的贫困程度和水平的衡量存在偏差,并可能影响到对贫困发生率的准确估计。更多还原

【Abstract】 After nearly 30-year reform and opening up, the population of absolute poverty in rural China has decreased from 250 million in 1978 to 15 million in 2007, and poverty incidence from 30.7% to around 2%. From 1980 on, China accounts for 75% of population among the developing countries who are lift out of poverty—This is an amazing fact that China has acquired stupendous accomplishment in poverty alleviation.The success of large-scale poverty reduction is mainly the result of the average economic growth rate of 9% per year in the past over 20 years. A relatively popular point of view is that when the absolute poverty incidence decreases to a considerably low level, the economic increase won’t make poverty decrease easily. Some other scholars hold that when poverty incidence decreases below 5%, economic growth will have little effect on poverty reduction. In my opinion, when the effect of poverty alleviation brought by economic growth reaches a considerably low point, i.e. when the growth effect of poverty alleviation falls into a trap like“Trap of Liquidity”, there will be little effect on poverty reduction no matter how fast the economy grows and how much is put into poverty alleviation according to the original way of anti-poverty practices. In fact, there has emerged a phenomenon in poverty alleviation and development in China that the cost of poverty reduction is going up while the speed of that is slowing down. In the 1980s, the poor population in rural China decreased 13.5 million on average annually , 5.3 million in the 1990s and only 1.4 million during the years 2002-2005. This indicates that the growth effect of China’s poverty alleviation is becoming smaller and poverty alleviation brought by economic growth is falling into the“Trap of Liquidity”which means poverty situation can hardly be further improved, which seems to foresee the necessity of certain adjustment on the current poverty alleviation system and policy. Meanwhile, after 30-year poverty alleviation and development, the nature and features of poverty in rural China have already changed or are changing: its distribution has experienced a transition from overall poverty in the early years of reform and opening up to regional poverty, and now it is going its way to spot poverty (village-based poverty). Besides, the poverty is changing from absolute poverty to relative poverty while its type is also changing: from income poverty to ability poverty. At present, the features of rural poverty are mainly reflected in the following three aspects:First, regional contractility of poverty population distribution ; Second, fluctuation of poverty alleviation of poverty population; Third, heterogeneity of poverty population. The current situation and features of the rural poverty determine the direction of poverty theory research and the orientation of anti-poverty policy now and in future. In my point of view, at present and in the near future, the research on the rural poverty should be carried out by centering on three aspects. First is the research on relation between poverty and environment to prove the influence on poverty caused by closeness of geographical environment and ecosystem vulnerability with a clear display of spatial distribution of rural poverty. Second is dynamic research on poverty. It means to introduce the time variable into the research, subdivide poverty types, analyze the endogenous mechanism and the external impacts of poverty fluctuation and propose system arrangement and policy needs of poverty alleviation and poverty recurrence targeting at different types of poverty. Third is the research on the relation between poverty and ability with view to finding the structure and features of“capabilities sets”, figuring out how the ability of the heterogeneous poverty population influences the duration time of poverty and how to improve the ways of human development for the purpose of cultivating and hoisting capabilities.All the three problems mentioned above concerning poverty in rural China are confronted with a common problem—duration time of poverty. Regional contractility of poverty mainly focuses on the regions which are still in poverty after a long-term poverty; the variation mechanism of poverty alleviation and poverty recurrence can only be found in its dynamic time while the ability poverty of the heterogeneous population, just like a chronic disease, has the implication of the sustained poverty itself. Because the existing short-term static theory of poverty takes little effect, some other new theoretical framework and cognitive tools must be sought for to solve the three problems of rural poverty.The chronic poverty studied in this thesis is a branch of poverty research at the end of 20th century and in the early years of 21st century in the foreign academia. With the special geographical environment as the background, aiming at the special poverty population, characterized by dynamic means of poverty research, It places the poverty research into the macro framework including ecological environment, economic increase and human development, systematically analyzing and discussing protracted nature, diversification, fluctuation and population heterogeneity of poverty. The research on chronic poverty is not only helpful to spread the latest developments of foreign poverty research to China’s academia and what is more important is to help offer a research thought and analyzing framework with theorical reference significance for China in the important phase of poverty alleviation.Though not a country typical of chronic poverty, China is still faced with the problem. Based on the three features of China’s rural poverty mentioned above, by means of the analyzing framework and cognitive tools of chronic poverty, as well as with the 2390 observed samples of data for five successive years from 600 key counties of national poverty alleviation program recorded in Poverty Monitoring Report of China (2002-2006) and from the angle of relative income poverty(i.e. with 60% as a reference standard the per capita income of key counties of national poverty alleviation program accounts for of that of the province or region related), this thesis takes 60% as the reference standard and stipulates those above the standard are defined as non-poverty, those below the standard within 1 to 4 years transitory poverty and those below the standard for 5 years in succession chronic poverty. Based on this, combined with regional and spatial environment of poverty in rural China, starting from the definition of vulnerability of ecosystem and with the premise that the relation between China’s rural poverty and environment and the incidence mechanism of chronic poverty in vulnerable ecology zone have been clarified, this thesis makes theoretical researches and empirical analysis on China’s real situation of chronic poverty from such aspects as spatial distribution, multi-dimensional description, the situation and the population heterogeneity of chronic poverty. In addition, the thesis puts forward the idea that different patterns of poverty alleviation should be adopted according to different poverty types, targeting at the limitations of development-oriented poverty alleviation system and policy. Personally speaking, the existing system should be firstly improved for development-oriented poverty alleviation. Based on this and to cooperate with this, security-oriented poverty alleviation system should also be established to help build a new system framework of rural poverty reduction and concrete arrangement and policy design should be made accordingly. Except the first chapter of introduction, this thesis is divided into seven chapters:Chapter Two Review of evolution of poverty theory abroad and research on poverty in rural China. In this chapter, this thesis combs through by stages the main ideas presented during the evolution of poverty theory abroad from income poverty to ability poverty and to poverty of rights and the main subjects concerned with scholars in terms of poverty research in rural China in the last decade or so. From such evolution, the characteristics and laws of poverty research have been summed up and at the same time the deficiencies in the current research on poverty, especially such research carried out by China’s academic circle, have been analyzed in this chapter. Then this thesis points out the five necessary means of transformation in this field and shows us the urgency of new theories in this field.Chapter Three General theories and dynamic features of chronic poverty and the definition of it in this thesis. In this chapter, the general definition of chronic poverty, its features, its cognitive pattern, its measurement of poverty, its dynamic features and the definition of chronic poverty in this thesis are all put forward. This thesis divides chronic poverty into chronic income poverty and chronic ability poverty, on which the research has been carried out from the angles of relative income poverty and absolute ability poverty respectively.Chapter Four The distribution and occurrence of poverty in ecologically vulnerable areas. Firstly, based on the definition of ecological vulnerability and ecologically vulnerable areas, the chapter describes the regional spatial distribution and features of the three types of poverty (non-poverty, transitory poverty and chronic poverty), makes a multi-dimensional description of the distribution of chronic poverty in ecological, ethnic and regional sense and summarizes the distribution features of chronic poverty under the influence of multi-conditions. Secondly, during the analysis of the formation of chronic poverty, other interdependence and interaction relations between geographic features and poverty growth, environment and poverty as well as chronic poverty have been illustrated. At the same time, this chapter makes a probe into the formation of rural chronic poverty in ecologically vulnerable areas from the point of farmer behavior pattern and into the occurrence mechanism of chronic poverty in such areas from the aspects of static closeness and dynamic openness.Chapter Five Poverty dynamics: chronic poverty, transitory poverty and non-poverty. By means of dynamic theory of poverty, the chapter firstly analyzes the types of poverty dynamics subdivision describing ecologically vulnerable areas and then divides transitory poverty into poverty-induced transitory poverty, Churning transitory poverty and transitory poverty of out-of-poverty type and makes a comparison between transitory poverty and chronic poverty in poverty dynamics. With the use of the discrete choice model (logit and OCM), a regression quantitative analysis on poverty occurrence and poverty dynamics has been carried out in order to interpret the influences of different factors of poverty occurrence on poverty and poverty dynamics.Chapter Six Chronic poverty in the capability deficiency of heterogeneous population.By adopting Amartya Sen’s theory of ability poverty, this chapter categorizes“capabilities sets”and then analyzes the manifestation of capability deficiency and at the same time discusses the interactive circle between capability deficiency and chronic poverty, and then raises the concept of natural poverty incidence. Meanwhile, the poverty incidence of certain heterogeneous groups(such as senior citizens, children, women and the population with sanitary problems) has also be surveyed. Finally, coordinating systematic arrangement in health, education and training has been made aiming to improve the basic capability and development potentials of poverty population.Chapter Seven The transformation of anti-poverty system: from development-oriented poverty alleviation to security- oriented poverty alleviation. While analyzing the evolution of anti-poverty institution and related policies in China, this chapter makes comments on the characteristics of the prevalent development-oriented anti-poverty system , and then gives a detailed analysis on its limitations in practices with the conclusion that the single development-oriented anti-poverty system cannot further alleviate the poverty. After the analysis on poverty types especially on subdivided poverty types, this chapter holds that a new type of anti-poverty system in rural area should be established with the combination of autonomous poverty alleviation induced by growth , supportive poverty alleviation with preferential policy and security-oriented poverty alleviation under social policy arrangement.Chapter Eight The establishment of new anti-poverty system in rural area: fundamental framework and policy guarantee. With regard to the plan of the establishment of new anti-poverty system in rural area, this chapter tries to make concrete systematic plan and related policy arrangement for transitory poverty, development-oriented poverty alleviation and chronic poverty as well as security-oriented poverty alleviation, and then points out that the transformation of government is the fundamental guarantee for the establishment of new anti-poverty system in rural area.The basis of this thesis is the division of chronic poverty. By adopting the latest framework and cognitive tools of the chronic poverty abroad, this thesis conducts research on the chronic poverty problem of the ecologically vulnerable areas in rural China from the aspects of regional long-term income poverty and individual ability poverty.The first aspect is the chronic poverty. This chapter manages to define the chronic income poverty from the perspective of relative poverty. The chronic income poverty refers to a situation that the rural population in certain regions falls into income poverty for five successive years. It means that the chronic poverty is a kind of long-term poverty, which is measured by the continuous fluctuations of regional income per capita. Therefore, this kind of chronic poverty is both a kind of relative poverty and a kind of income poverty. Meanwhile, this chapter puts this sustained long-term poverty against the background of poverty dynamics and makes a comparative research on the transitory poverty that lasts from one to four years and the non-poverty above the relative poverty line so as to find out the internal relation and transformation mechanism between chronic poverty, transitory poverty and non-poverty.The second aspect is chronic ability poverty. This chapter manages to define the chronic ability poverty from the perspective of absolute poverty. The chronic ability poverty refers to the living state in which some certain rural population falls into long-term poverty due to capability deficiency. It indicates that the chronic poverty is very much like the chronic disease, which cannot be cured once affected. It demonstrates the pluralism and the heterogeneity of poverty. Because such kind of chronic poverty is caused by individual capability deficiency, it can also be regarded as ability poverty.The division of chronic poverty in this thesis not only gives a both relative and absolute perspective about poverty, but also displays the elementariness and the pluralism of income poverty and ability poverty. It carries out a relatively thorough analysis of poverty problem. On the basis of division of chronic poverty, this thesis also offers different system arrangement and poverty alleviation system to different types of chronic poverty. By adopting the latest framework and cognitive tools of the chronic poverty abroad, and at the same time according to the five-year time series data from national anti-poverty target counties, this thesis uses statistical analysis and econometric model against the background of ecologically vulnerable areas to carry out both macro and micro research on the chronic poverty in rural China, so it may bear some originalities as follows:1.From the angles of income poverty and relative poverty of chronic poverty, based on the authoritative data from Poverty Monitoring Report of Rural China and with the proportion of income per capita of national anti-poverty target counties to that of the related province(region) as a reference standard, the thesis categorizes all the poverty samples collected into three types which are non-poverty, transitory poverty and chronic poverty and takes into consideration ecological vulnerability degree, ethnical and regional situation to study the distribution of chronic poverty in ecologically vulnerable areas, poverty dynamics and major influencing factors of chronic poverty from which the distribution, features of Change and rules of chronic poverty in rural China have been found, which makes the thesis the first case in this kind of research work in China in the poverty study of rural areas.2.Inspired by the cognitive tools of chronic poverty , in the chapter of poverty dynamics study, the thesis subdivides transitory poverty into three types which are poverty-induced transitory poverty,Churning transitory poverty and transitory poverty of out-of-poverty type and makes a statistic description of the distribution of transitory poverty in ecologically vulnerable areas and the relationship between transitory poverty and ethnic areas and western region. The subdivision of transitory poverty from the angle of relative poverty, even in the foreign chronic poverty theory, is seldom discussed.3.Based on the realistic situation of rural China’s poverty, the thesis makes a monographic study on ability poverty of heterogeneous poor population and to some degree advances Amartya Sen’“capabilities sets”by dividing capabilities into basic capabilities and survival capabilities based on which the thesis analyses the poverty incidence of senior citizens poverty, children poverty , women poverty and disability poverty etc. and the nature and features of those poverties, which makes the thesis bear some degree of originality.4. The thesis puts forward and argues the concept of natural poverty incidence which holds that with individual capabilities available, poverty can’t be definitely eliminated but chosen which bears political implication that poverty can’t be eliminated but controlled.5. More than once the thesis touches upon the concept of“Trap of Liquidity”which, when used in this thesis, means driving poverty alleviation by development. In introduction and chapter seven, it is held that autonomous poverty alleviation through development-oriented poverty alleviation is bound to reduce poverty incidence to such a status like“Trap of Liquidity”. Once in this situation, no matter how larger economic support will be given to shake off income poverty, further poverty reduction can hardly be achieved. The solution to further reduce poverty can only be possibly found through shifting the focus of anti-poverty to ability poverty and implementing anti-poverty strategies relying on system arrangement of social policies.6. After systematically combing through the research documents of rural China’s poverty over the past years, aiming at weak problems in rural poverty study, the thesis proposes four research changes to promote rural China’s poverty study which are change from income poverty to ability poverty, from macro perspective of regional poverty to micro perspective of individual farmer’s poverty , from government domination to community involvement, from short-term static methods to long-term dynamic methods and from unidisciplinary research to multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary research.Chronic poverty research is an emerging branch in the domain of foreign development and poverty study and it itself has imperfections. Moreover, the application of chronic poverty in China’s poverty theory and development-oriented poverty relief practice has just started. Therefore, the thesis is only a trial exploration and problems even defects are unavoidable in terms of the overall introduction of chronic poverty and the application of development-oriented poverty relief in ecologically vulnerable areas. One of the thesis’s objectives is to offer a new idea for China’s poverty study and development-oriented anti-poverty practice by means of trial use of chronic theory. Of course, the present study of the thesis is not mature enough and needs improvement in the following two aspects:Firstly, the thesis study is preliminary and framework-like, aiming to attempt to build a basic framework of China’s chronic poverty study, yet deep research hasn’t been made. Due to limited statistical materials available and the author’s limited knowledge and abilities, the most special content in chronic poverty——Intergenerational Poverty,hasn’t been mentioned. As to the measurement of chronic poverty, the thesis just gives a introduction but fails to make a quantitative model reflecting chronic poverty in ecologically vulnerable areas of China.Secondly, with regard to research methods, the most common one used in chronic poverty is the means of micro-analysis (home or individual) to observe the same poor people for five years consecutively. This is both time-consuming and costly, which is almost impossible for the author. In order to ensure the relative accuracy of the research and meanwhile meet the basic requirements of chronic poverty, from the perspective of relative poverty and with the five-year time series data from national anti-poverty target counties recorded in Poverty Monitoring Report of Rural China this thesis uses the ratio between the income per capita below the county level and the provincial income per capita to indirectly measure chronic poverty. This method meets the needs of the basic requirements of chronic poverty theory, however, due to the inevitable deviation from the actual degree of poverty, the accuracy of this research especially the estimation of poverty incidence may be affected to some extent.更多还原