【作者】 龙海明；

【导师】 何泽荣；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 金融学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 消费信贷作为一种重要的金融服务方式,其产生源于金融机构的盈利动机与消费者追求效用最大化的博弈结果。20世纪90年代末期以来,我国经济逐渐由“短缺”转向“过剩”,进入需求约束阶段,有效需求不足成为制约经济进一步深化发展的羁绊;随着经济的发展和居民收入的快速增长,促进了消费需求的扩张和消费结构的转换。这些,都从客观上产生了对发展消费信贷的迫切要求。可以说,消费信贷是作为扩大内需、刺激居民消费、提高最终消费率的政策手段在我国发展起来的,具有很强的政策推动的特征;消费信贷在我国的运行,是外部环境逼迫的结果。由于我国消费信贷业务的经营主体是商业银行,因此,对消费信贷运行的研究主要立足于商业银行。我国商业银行消费信贷的运行是建立在消费信贷需求、供给以及消费信贷的经济增长效应等相关理论基础之上的。消费信贷需求是一种引致需求,包括总量需求和结构需求。消费信贷总量需求主要受居民预期的影响,而结构需求则更多地受制于其他因素,当居民存在潜在的消费需求,同时又面临流动性约束时,会产生通过借贷来缓解流动性约束的需求,即产生对消费信贷的需求。消费信贷的供给则取决于银行经营管理的理念和水平,可以通过消费信贷微观供给原理来阐释。消费信贷的经济增长效应主要表现在两个方面:一是消费信贷刺激消费并通过消费的增加和消费的乘数效应来促进经济增长;二是消费的功能是劳动力的再生产和人力资本投资,消费信贷使消费提前实现有利于提高当期的人力资本投资,从而实现经济以更高的增长率增长。我国商业银行消费信贷的运行,有其自身的运行特点和发展规律,与我国宏观经济环境及其变化密切相关。经过近10年的高速增长,在初步完成了粗放式的市场扩张和量的积聚之后,必将进入新的以集约化经营为特征的深化发展阶段。面对消费信贷市场日益激烈的竞争压力,要实现这一根本性的转化,关键在于如何有效突破目前阻碍消费信贷业务深化发展的制度瓶颈,建立起适合我国商业银行发展特点的消费信贷运行机制。包括消费信贷业务营销机制和业务创新机制;消费信贷业务定价机制和绩效评价机制;消费信贷业务信用评价机制和风险管理机制。建立高效的消费信贷业务营销机制是商业银行扩大消费信贷规模、提高经营效益的客观要求。一方面,商业银行通过消费信贷业务营销机制的有效运作,使更多的消费者接受和购买其消费信贷服务,从广度上实现消费信贷的规模扩张;另一方面,商业银行通过消费信贷营销机制的有效运作,向广大消费者推销各种创新型的消费信贷业务,使更多类型的消费信贷业务为消费者所接受,从深度上实现消费信贷的规模扩张。消费信贷营销属于服务营销的范畴,其核心是银行应通过取得顾客的满意和忠诚来促成相互有利的交换,谋求建立长久的服务关系,最终形成稳定的利润来源并实现自身的长远发展。商业银行应根据自身的经营取向和经营环境,加强营销团队建设和营销手段设计,明确市场细分与定位,确定自身经营消费信贷业务的总体规划,采取有针对性的消费信贷营销策略,为消费者提供个性化的消费信贷服务,以求获得最好的营销效果。建立科学的消费信贷业务绩效评价机制是商业银行提高消费信贷业务经营效益的必要条件。应坚持科学性与可操作性相结合原则,依据“三性”平衡原理,围绕利润最大化这一主题,体现消费信贷业务的成长性,构建一套系统科学的绩效评价指标体系;根据各指标的特点和性质,在对其进行无量纲化处理的基础上,建立起合理的绩效评分模型,并以此为手段,对商业银行消费信贷业务经营效益和经营者业绩进行评价,引导商业银行消费信贷业务经营,提升盈利能力。应坚持短期经营目标与长期发展战略相结合原则,对消费信贷进行绩效评价,必须体现消费信贷的短期经营目标和长期发展战略,确保消费信贷能稳定地朝着预期的方向发展。建立合理的消费信贷业务定价机制是商业银行有效提高消费信贷业务经营效益和合理补偿消费信贷业务风险的重要前提。消费贷款定价是一个在动态环境下运行的系统工程,通过制定合理的定价机制对消费信贷业务进行科学定价,实现对消费信贷业务的风险覆盖和消化,做到在市场竞争力和业务利润率之间求得均衡。从我国商业银行开展消费信贷业务的实际情况出发,可以做出两种选择:一是以信用评级为基础,利用我国商业银行在长期信贷业务中积累的历史数据,利用不同等级间的动态迁移矩阵,建立起消费贷款模型,通过科学定价,以实现风险和收益的匹配。二是将现代资本市场中的期权定价原理引入到消费贷款定价中,充分考虑消费贷款利率、抵押率与违约概率之间的定量关系,建立起贷款定价模型,更合理地解决消费贷款定价的风险补偿问题。建立健全的消费信贷业务信用评价机制是商业银行预防消费信贷业务风险、保障消费信贷资金安全的基础工作。必须对消费者的信用状况进行科学评价,在此基础上作出合理的消费信贷业务经营决策。事实上,商业银行在经营消费信贷业务时,由于与消费者在信息获取上的不对称,容易导致消费信贷市场上逆向选择和道德风险问题的发生。通过浮动利率博弈模型可以客观分析信息不对称对消费信贷市场运行机制和运行效率的影响;通过消费信贷业务信用评价机制的有效运作,可以对消费者的信用纪录、信用能力和信用风险作出全面的分析,得出科学的消费者信用评价结论,并以此为依据决定是否向消费者提供消费信贷服务和以何种方式、何种附加条件向消费者提供消费信贷服务,保障消费信贷业务经营的安全性。建立灵敏的消费信贷业务风险管理机制是我国商业银行稳健经营的战略选择。消费信贷风险管理是消费信贷业务运作管理的核心。其内容包括风险因素识别和风险信号采集、风险预警、风险防范和控制等环节。由于消费信贷风险暴露具有一定的时滞性、风险变化过程具有明显的阶段性特征,因此,加强风险意识,提高风险管理技术水平,科学量化和有效控制信贷风险,建立起消费信贷风险管理长效机制就成为我国商业银行面临的紧迫任务。通过利用VaR方法和建立预期违约概率模型来度量消费信贷风险损失、计算消费信贷业务的非意愿性预期违约率,可以达到有效控制风险的目的。建立完善的消费信贷业务创新机制是商业银行实现消费信贷业务规模快速扩张和“又快又好发展”的关键环节。一方面,完善的消费信贷业务创新机制是商业银行参与消费信贷市场竞争、在既有消费信贷市场上实现业务规模扩张的需要;另一方面,完善的消费信贷业务创新机制是商业银行拓展消费信贷新兴市场的需要。应充分利用现代信息技术,优化制度安排,强化银保联动,真正实现消费信贷产品研发、业务流程、运作方式等方面的创新。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important financial service practice, Consumer credit originated from the profit motive of financial institutions and consumer’s seeking to maximize the utility. From the late 1990s, our economy gradually change from "shortage" to the "surplus", entering the stage of demand constraints, the insufficient of effective demand becomes a trammel for economic to further development; With the development of economy and the growth of people’s incoming, the consumer demand has been expanded and the consumption structure has been changed. These have objectively produced an urgent demand on the development of consumer credit. It can be said that consumer credit has been taken as policy instruments in China to expand domestic demand, stimulate the consumption, and ultimately raise the consumption rate. So it has strong policy-driven feature. The operation of China’s consumer credit is the forcing result of external environment. Since Commercial banks are the main departments for the operation of China’s consumer credit business. Therefore, the research of consumer credit operation primarily should be based on commercial banks.The consumer credit operation of China’s commercial banks is built on the basis of consumer credit demands, supply and the economic growth effect of consumer credit and such relevant theories. Consumer demand for credit is a kind of demands, including the total demand and the structure demand. Total consumer credit demand is mainly affected by the people expectation, while demand structure is more constrained by other factors. When people have potential consumer demand, facing liquidity constraints, then consumer credit demand will be produced to ease the demand for liquidity constraints. Consumer credit supply is depended on the bank’s business management philosophy and level, it maybe explained by the micro-supply principle. Consumer credit effect to the economic growth is mainly manifested in two aspects: First, consumer credit stimulates consumption and through the increase of consumption and the multiplier effect of consumption to promote economic growth; Second, the function of consumption is the reproduction of labor and the investment to human capital, consumer credit makes consumption be achieved ahead of schedule, and helps to improve the current investment in human capital, so as to achieve a higher economic growth rate.The operation of commercial banks Consumer Credit in china has its own characteristics and development law. It is closely related to the change of macro-economic environment in China. After the high-speed growth for nearly 10 years, the extensive amount of market expansion and the accumulation have been initially finished, it is inevitably to enter into a deepen development stage whose feature is intensive operation. Facing increasingly intensive competitive pressures in the Consumer credit markets, in order to accomplish this fundamental transition, the key lies in how to effectively break the system bottleneck which currently hinder the deepen development of consumer credit business so as to establish consumer credit operation mechanism which is suitable to the development characteristics of China’s consumer credit. They include consumer credit business marketing operational mechanisms and innovative mechanisms, Consumer credit business pricing mechanism and performance evaluation mechanism, and Consumer credit business credit evaluation mechanisms and risk management mechanism.Establishing a consumer credit business marketing mechanism is the requirements for commercial bank to expand the scale of consumer credit and improve the operational effectiveness .On one hand, if commercial banks operate consumer credit business marketing mechanisms effectively, more consumers will accept and purchase the consumer credit services, and commercial banks will achieve the expansion of consumer credit on the scale; On the other hand, commercial banks operate consumer credit marketing mechanisms effectively, pushing innovative consumer credit business to the vast number of consumers, so that more types of consumer credit business are accepted by consumers, then realize the expansion of consumer credit on the depth . Consumer credit marketing services belongs to the areas of marketing, the core of which is that banks bring about mutually beneficial exchange through achieving customer’s satisfaction and loyalty, try to establish long-term service relationship, and ultimately form a stable source of profits and realize its long-term development. Commercial banks should strengthen the marketing team-building and marketing tool design according to their own direction and the business environment, clear market segmentation and positioning, determine operating in the general planning of their own consumer credit business, take targeted marketing strategy, and provide consumers with personalized consumer credit services in order to obtain the best marketing results.It is necessary for commercial banks to establish a scientific evaluation mechanism to raise consumer credit business operating efficiency. Commercial banks should build up a set of systematic and Scientific Performance evaluation System, combining scientific and operational principles, making maximizing profits as the core based on "three Features", and reflecting the growth of consumer credit business, and; According to the characteristics and nature of indicators, based on the their handling of dimensionless, establish a rational model based on achievement score, and with which to evaluate the operating efficiency of consumer credit business of commercial banks and the performance of Operators, and lead commercial banks consumer credit business to enhance profitability. Operators should adhere to the principle of combining short-term goals to long-term development strategy; AS to the performance evaluation of consumer credit, it is necessary to reflect consumer credit in the short-term business objectives and long-term development strategy to ensure stable development of consumer credit toward the expected direction.To establish a rational pricing mechanism of consumer credit business is the important precondition for commercial banks to effectively improve consumer credit business profitability and reasonably compensate the consumer credit business risks. Consumer loan Pricing is a system engineering operated in the dynamic environment, which is through establishing rational pricing mechanism to scientific pricing on the consumer credit business, to realize consumer credit business risk coverage and digestion, and therefore achieve the balance between competitiveness in the market and business profitability. Judging from actual situation of China’s commercial banks to develop the consumer credit business, we can make two choices: One, based on the credit rating, using historical data accumulated by China’s commercial banks in the long-term business of credit, and Credit Transfer Matrix between different grades, built a model of consumer loans, through scientific pricing to achieve the matching of risks to benefits. Second, introduce the modern option pricing in the capital market theory to the pricing of consumer loans, giving full consideration to the quantitative relationship between consumer lending rates, mortgage rates and the probability of default, thus establish loan pricing model to solute the problem of risk compensation more reasonably in the pricing consumer loans.Establishing and improving evaluation mechanism of consumer credit business is the basic work for the prevention of the consumer credit business risks and protecting the safety of consumer credit funds. It is necessary to make a scientific evaluation to consumer credit situation, and make a reasonable decision-making on consumer credit business. In fact, due to the asymmetry of information access, when the commercial banks operate in the consumer credit business, it is easy to produce adverse selection and moral hazard problems. Through floating rate Game model ,we can analysis the impact of asymmetric information to the consumer credit market operation mechanism and operation efficiency objectively ; Through the effective operation to the evaluation mechanism of consumer credit business, we can analyze record of consumer credit、credit capacity and credit risk comprehensively, get a scientific evaluation of consumer credit. Based on this, we can decide whether to provide consumers with consumer credit services and in which way and what additional conditions to provide consumers with consumer credit services, to protect consumer credit business security.Establishing of sensitive consumer credit business risk management mechanism is a strategic choice for the sound operation of China’s commercial banks. Consumer credit risk management is the core of consumer credit business operation and management. Its contents include risk factors identification and risk signal acquisition, the risk of early warning, risk prevention and control and so on. Consumer credit risk exposure have a certain delay, risk change process has obvious short-term characteristics, therefore, strengthening risk awareness, improving risk management skills, scientific quantitative credit risk and effective control of credit risk, and establishing long-term consumer credit risk management mechanism has become the urgent task which China’s Commercial Banks face. Through the use of VAR methods and the establishment of expected model to measure consumer credit risk losses and the calculation of the non-willingness default probability of consumer credit business, we can achieve the object of effectively controlling risk.Establishing and improving the consumer credit business innovation mechanism is a key link for commercial bank to achieve the rapid expansion of the scale of consumer credit business and "faster and better development". On one hand, a perfect consumer credit business innovation mechanism is the request for the commercial bank to participate in competition in the consumer credit market and realize expansion of the business scale; On the other hand, a perfect consumer credit business innovation mechanism is the request for the commercial bank’s consumer credit expansion in emerging market. All in all, it is necessary to take full advantage of modern information technology to optimize institutional arrangements and strengthen the relation between Banks and Insurance companies to truly realize consumer credit product research, business processes, operational modalities and other innovations.更多还原