【作者】 刘鹏；

【导师】 李柏洲；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 党的十七大报告高屋建瓴地提出了在改革发展的关键阶段,我们党治国理政、我们国家发展进步的一系列重大问题。公共危机管理是党的十七大再次强调的重要任务,是我国各级政府必须履行好的重要职责,也是各级领导干部必须掌握的重要本领。相对西方发达国家来说,我国在城市公共危机预警机制建设上还处于起步阶段,还存在很多不足和亟待解决的突出问题。主要表现为,我国城市公共危机预警机制缺乏统一协调,基本上实行的是分灾类、分部门、分地区的单一减灾管理模式。预警机制建设的滞后使我国地方各级政府在面对公共危机事件时经常处于被动地位,另一方面,城市系统的复杂性和脆弱性加剧了公共危机带来的损害。因此,构建科学、有效的省域中心城市公共危机预警机制,科学、准确地把握公共危机发生的前兆,将公共危机消灭于萌芽状态或最大限度地减小公共危机对全社会带来的破坏,保证城市以及社会经济的可持续、稳定发展成为当前亟待解决的突出问题。本文依据公共危机管理理论、城市公共危机预警理论和新公共管理理论的研究,综合运用系统分析、实证分析和模型分析等方法对我国省域中心城市公共危机预警机制进行深入系统研究,并在归纳、总结和评析国外大城市公共危机预警机制的研究基础上,研究能够有效监测我国省域中心城市公共危机的预警方法和构建省域中心城市公共危机的预警机制。本文的研究对于完善我国城市公共危机管理理论和公共危机预警理论,提升对城市公共危机预警的管理效率和防范控制能力,保障新时期我国城市的健康稳定持续发展,具有重要的理论价值和现实指导意义。首先,本文对城市公共危机预警及管理的相关理论进行研究,具体包括:公共危机的管理理论、公共危机预警理论和新公共管理理论。在对公共危机相关理论研究的基础上,突出了城市公共危机的特征研究,为论文的写作建立了支撑条件;界定了省域中心城市的内涵,分析了我国省域中心城市公共危机预警机制的现状,并找出了当前存在的一些突出问题及其形成原因,为建构城市公共危机预警机制提供前提条件;分析了国外一些发达国家,尤其是美国和日本关于大城市公共危机预警机制理论和实践的经验,为建立我国城市公共危机预警机制提供启示。第二,在以上研究的基础上,指出了影响我国省域中心城市公共危机的不同诱因,从内部间接因素,包括经济、政治和文化因素,外显直接因素,包括组织、个体和管理因素,以及环境约束因素,包括自然环境和国际环境的影响三个方面展开论述。分析了我国省域中心城市公共危机的生成机理和演化过程,生成机理借助事件链理论、致灾因素突变模型和社会燃烧理论进行分析,演化过程则借助熵变理论进行分析,为我国省域中心城市公共危机预警机制建设奠定了基础。第三,构建了适合我国省域中心城市的公共危机预警机制。建立了省域中心城市公共危机预警组织结构,并分析了预警组织结构各层级之间的协调关系。阐述了我国省域中心城市公共危机预警运行机制,包括城市公共危机预警的系统构造、运作流程和实施模式三个方面。提出了我国省域中心城市公共危机预警信息机制,包括信息监测机制、信息评判机制和信息公开机制,以及我国省域中心城市公共危机预警应急机制,并从应急决策机制和应急控制机制进行了分析。第四,提出了我国省域中心城市公共危机预警机制的协同。运用协同学的基本理论和方法,界定了我国省域中心城市公共危机机制协同的内涵和理论依据,提出了城市公共危机预警机制协同的特征、原则、目标,以及实际水平和理想水平的差距,并根据我国城市公共危机的实际特征,借鉴国外发达国家城市公共危机管理的经验,提出了我国省域中心城市公共危机预警机制协同的总体思路和耦合模式。第五,构建了我国省域中心城市公共危机预警评价指标体系,并对我国15所省域中心城市进行实证分析。本文构建了城市公共危机预警评价模型,包括危机评价不确定结论的合成模型、基于未确知测度的评价模型和基于三层前馈神经网络的预警模型。实证结果表明我国省域中心城市公共危机预警警度大多数都处于轻警,少部分城市处于中警,需要采用一定的预控措施。最后,提出了保障我国省域中心城市公共危机预警机制有效运行的对策。其中,首要任务是全面整合省域中心城市公共危机预警管理组织体系,具体包括公共危机管理机构、学习教育机制、全民参与的管理机制和信息管理三个方面;其次需要建构城市公共危机预警管理的权责机制,包括权力划分机制、监督机制和责任机制三个部分;再次需要建立城市公共危机预警管理的信息公开机制;另外还需要完善城市公共危机预警管理的法律支撑保障体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Report from the 17th CPC National Conference prudently put forward a series of important issues concerning the management of our country and the development of our economy at the critical stage of reform and development. The management of public crisis is an important task that the Conference reemphasized, and it is the important duties that government of all levels must fulfill and the important qualifications that cadres of all levels must be equipped with. Compared with the developed countries in the west, China is just initiating its construction of urban public crisis precaution mechanism and therefore, we find many shortcomings and difficult problems waiting to be solved. They are mainly as follows. There is lack of cooperation within the precaution mechanism, which is usually the individual management pattern within individual types of crisis, individual sectors and individual areas. The fact that the construction of precaution mechanism lags behind what it is needed renders local government of all levels passive in dealing with public crisis events. On the other hand, the complexity and fragility of the urban system add to the harm that the public crisis brings about. Therefore, it is to be solved urgently to construct scientific, effective provincial central city public crisis precaution mechanism, to accurately and scientifically conceive the auspice of public crisis, to destroy public crisis at very early stage or to minimize the damage that public crisis brings to the entire society and to ensure the economy of the city and the society to develop continuously and stably.This paper draws on theories of public crisis management, urban public crisis precaution and updated public management, thoroughly investigates the provincial urban public crisis precaution mechanism with systematic, empirical and modeling analysis, and searches for the precaution methodology for monitoring provincial central urban public crisis and constructs the precaution mechanism for provincial central urban public crisis, based on summarizing, and comparing major cities of other countries in public crisis precaution mechanism. This paper will have important theoretical and practical implications for completing public crisis management theory and public crisis precaution theory, upgrading the management efficiency and safeguarding ability for public crisis precaution and ensure the healthy and stable development of the city in China.First, this paper makes a study into the relevant theories about urban public crisis precaution and management, including public crisis management theory, public crisis precaution theory and updated public management theory. Based on the relevant theory on public crisis, this paper attaches importance to the features of urban public crisis which provide support for the composition of the paper; defines the meaning of provincial central city, analyzes the current situations of the provincial central urban public crisis precaution mechanism, put forward a series of problems that exist in China and their causes and offers preconditions for constructing public crisis precaution mechanism; analyzes the public crisis precaution mechanism theoretical and practical experience in big cities in western developed countries, especially U. S. and Japan and provides revelation for the building of urban public crisis precaution mechanism in China.Second, based on the above research, this paper put forwards the inducing factors that affect provincial central urban public crisis, including internal indirect factors such as economic, political and cultural factors, external direct factors such as organizational, individual and managerial factors and environmental factors such as natural environment and international environment, and analyzes the formation mechanism and evolution process of the provincial central urban public crisis. It uses event-chain theory, causative factor mutation model and social burning theory to analyze the formation mechanism and uses Entropy Change Theory to analyze the evolution process, so as to lay a foundation for provincial central urban public crisis precaution mechanism.Third, this paper constructs the provincial urban public crisis precaution mechanism suitable in Chinese context, builds the organizational structure of provincial central urban public crisis precaution, analyzes the interaction between each level within the structure and explains the precaution mechanism, including the systematic construction, operation proceeding and implementation model. It also brings forth the precaution messaging mechanism, including message monitoring mechanism, message evaluation mechanism and message declaration system, and the precaution emergency mechanism in terms of emergency policy making and emergency control mechanism.Fourth, this paper raises the issue concerning the cooperation within the precaution mechanism. It applies the basis theories and methods from research in cooperation, defines the meaning and theoretical basis of the cooperation within the precaution mechanism and clarifies its features, principles, objectives and the discrepancy between the reality and ideal. Based on the realistic features in China and the operational experiences concerning public crisis management in developed countries, it puts forward the overall structure and cooperation model for the provincial urban public crisis precaution mechanism in China.Five, this paper constructs the evaluation standards and methodology for the provincial central urban public crisis precaution mechanism and holds empirical analysis towards 15 provincial central cities. It constructs the evaluation model for the precaution mechanism, including integrated model of inconclusive evaluation, the evaluation model based on uncertain model and the precaution model based on neural network. The results show that the precaution in provincial central urban public crisis remains at low level with only a small part remains at medium level, and therefore measures must be taken.At last, this paper presents effective measures to ensure the smooth operation of the precaution mechanism. The first and foremost task is to integrate the management organizational system of the provincial urban public crisis precaution, including the management structure, educational mechanism, citizen participation management mechanism and messaging management. Secondly, it is needed to build responsibility mechanism for the precaution management, including power division mechanism, monitoring mechanism and responsibility mechanism. Thirdly, it is necessary to construct the message declaration mechanism for the public crisis precaution. Furthermore, we need to perfect the legal support system for the public crisis precaution management.更多还原