【作者】 李拓晨；

【导师】 李柏洲；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 当今时代,科技发展日新月异,在国家发展战略中,主要大国都把高新技术产业发展作为21世纪保持强国优势的法宝,由此引发的企业间市场竞争、技术竞争、人才竞争、发展环境竞争空前激烈。这种高新技术产业竞争的形式,内容,手段和方法等都较传统产业竞争赋予了更多的新内涵,争夺高新技术产业发展制高点的竞争甚至超出了国际间的政治竞争和军事竞争。培育和提升本国高新技术产业国际竞争力是大国所普遍关注的战略性课题。以高新技术为基础的高新技术产业日益成为知识经济时代的主导产业,发展高新技术,促使高新技术产业持续健康快速发展,是我国实现国民经济结构调整和产业升级的重要战略。近年来,我国高新技术产业发展迅猛,取得了骄人的成绩,但其中也存在许多问题。如何正确分析我国高新技术产业的发展现状、预测其发展前景,对高新技术产业进行量化评价,分析制约高新技术产业发展的因素并提出相应的对策建议,已成为我国高新技术产业发展面临的重要课题。论文以我国高新技术产业为研究对象,在对国内外相关研究成果总结分析的基础上,收集了我国高新技术产业近二十年的发展数据资料,依据高新技术产业特点和产业经济学相关理论,论述了高新技术产业同传统产业的差别,在对既有竞争力理论评述的基础之上,指出了高新技术产业发展演化规律;论文从我国高新技术产业的历史演进阶段、产业规模、产业结构、产业布局、产业技术水平和高新技术产业进出口状况等多角度分析了我国高新技术产业的发展现状;运用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法对我国高新技术园区的发展进行了阐述与评价,确定了不同高开区的发展政策;分析了我国高新技术产业发展的影响制约因素,包括我国经济的发展水平及国际化程度、风险投资发展水平、科技进步与技术创新能力及产业政策等;构建了高新技术产业竞争力的评价指标体系,运用模糊数学理论从单项指标和综合指标两个视角对我国高新技术产业竞争力进行评价;利用1999-2004六年间我国高新技术产业产值及国民经济发展的几个关键指标数据,运用灰色理论构建高科技产业的预测模型,并结合科技贡献率预测了我国高新技术产业的发展潜力,把预测的数据同我国高新技术产业实际发展的2005年、2006年、2007年数据相对照,验证了模型的科学适用性,通过分析,得出我国高新技术产业具有广阔的发展前景;通过与主要发达国家相关指标的比较,指出了我国在高新技术产业领域与发达国家相比的不足;论文针对我国高新技术产业发展存在的问题与制约因素,提出了促进我国高新技术产业发展的对策建议,包括高新技术产业政策的调整、科技创新体系的构建、科学布局高新技术产业园区和利用风险投资对策等措施,从而为推动我国高新技术产业发展提供重要参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 With today’s dynamic economy, the main powerful countries regard developing the new and high technology industry as the magic weapon in 21st century. The enterprise competition, technical competition, talent competition, development environment competition arising therefrom has become the focus of economic development. Compared with the traditional industry, the competitive form, content and method has been vested much more contents. Competed for the commanding point of new and high technology industry has even surpassed the political and military competition. Cultivating and promoting international competitiveness of new and high technology has become the prevalent strategic issue. Nowadays, as the technology and science experiencing changes each day, new and high technology industry, which is based on high-tech, has become the leading industry of the knowledge-based economy. Developing the high-tech, spurring a sustained, rapid and sound development of this industry, has become an important strategy which is used to realize the adjustment of the national economy structural and the upgrade of industry. In recent years, our country’s new and high technology industry has made a rapid progress, how to correctly analyze the current status, predict its prospect, how to make quantitative assessment of this industry, how to analyze the restricting factors of the development of the industry, how to table relevant proposals have become an significant issue.This paper took our country’s high and new technology as the object of study, collected the development data over the twenty years, elaborated the differences between the high-technology industry and traditional industry, put forward the evolution rule of the high-technology industry, on the basis of summarizing and analyzing the domestic and foreign related research results and the comment of existing theories, according to the high and new technology industry’s features and correlation theories. From the standpoint of its historical evolution stage, the industrial scale, the industrial structure, the industry distribution, the industry competitiveness and the import and export situation of this industry, analyzed the development situation of high-technology industry in our country. Utilized the method of combining the qualitative analysis with the quantitative analysis to elaborate and evaluate the development of this industry, determined different development policies of the development area. The paper also analyzed the influencing factors including the economic development level of our country and its internationalization, the risk investment level of development, the development of science and technology, technological innovation ability and industrial policies. Constructed a index system of the high and new technology industry competitiveness and used fuzzy mathematics to evaluate the competitiveness from single parameter angles and aggregative indicator angles. By using the key indicators of output value and national economic development during the six years of 1999-2004, and utilizing the grey theory, the author constructed a forecasting model of this industry. And combining the contribution rate of science and technology, the author predicted the development potential of this industry, compared the forecast data and actual data of 2005, 2006 and 2007 to prove the scientific applicability. Through the analysis, drew the conclusion that our country’s high and new technology industry had a bright future,. Through the comparison with the relevant indicators of developed countries, pointed out that the deficiency of this industry comparing with the developed country. Finally, in the view of the existing problems and constraint, the paper gave some proposed propositions to promote the development of this industry, including policy’s adjustment, the scientific innovation system’s construction, scientific redistribution of high and new technology industry area, and using venture capital to promote the development of the industry, in order to promote the development of our country’s new and high technology industry.更多还原