【作者】 梅虎；

【导师】 朱金福；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 收益管理已被国内外的航空公司证明是行之有效的管理技术,研究航空旅客选择行为及其在收益管理中的应用,而不是仅仅从航空公司效益角度考虑实施收益管理,体现了以旅客为本的思想,也是收益管理研究中的前沿课题,为航空公司进一步实施收益管理提供了借鉴和新视角。本文以航空旅客选择行为及其在收益管理中的应用等问题为主要研究对象,具体工作包括以下几方面:首先分析了本文研究背景。航空公司片面追求自身收益最大化与旅客利益受损导致了该研究的必要性;同时,国家民航总局管制的放松、国外收益管理技术的引进及国内收益管理的发展促进了该研究的可能性。其次系统地总结了收益管理的产生、发展和应用领域,对国内外收益管理最新进展做了综述,指出今后的研究方向,并从四方面总结分析了航空旅客选择行为方面的研究进展。本文的工作重心和重点是构建了航空旅客选择行为及其在收益管理中应用研究的框架体系。将旅客对航空公司、航班和舱位的选择行为从多角度与收益管理相结合,按照旅客选择由宏观逐步深入微观的思路建立了航空旅客选择行为及其在收益管理中应用研究的框架体系。在旅客宏观选择行为及其在收益管理中的应用研究方面,从旅客宏观选择行为角度得到一系列收益管理策略和定性分析结论。一是通过对旅客选择行为的结构特征数据拟合,选取最佳组合模型预测,得到系列基于旅客选择结构、趋势的收益管理结论。二是概括了旅客航空公司、航班、舱位选择行为特征并构建了选择流程框架,得到系列基于旅客航空公司、航班、舱位选择行为的收益管理结论。三是通过分析四类航空旅客的行为特征和选择偏好,研究民航总局对机票价格实行管制和航空公司间降价竞争现象,得到旅客选择行为下的价格产品策略和航空公司实施收益管理定价的结论。在旅客微观选择行为及其在收益管理中的应用研究方面,从旅客微观选择角度得到一系列收益管理技术和定量分析结论。一是以Logit模型为基础,运用变精度粗集(VPRS)方法从旅客选择行为角度构建了基于旅客选择行为的航班选择模型(PFCM),该模型可求出旅客航班选择的真实因素及各因素权重,并计算出特定航班的旅客选择概率,实证研究显示该模型效果良好,通过对PFCM中价格参数和非价格参数适当调控可以提高旅客选择航班的概率。二是针对EMSR和传统旅客舱位选择行为研究中的不足,以Logit模型为基础,运用VPRS方法从旅客选择行为角度构建了旅客舱位选择模型(PSCM)和基于PSCM的收益管理模型(RBPSCM),RBPSCM可直接求解旅客舱位选择的真实因素及各因素权重,计算出特定航班旅客舱位选择概率和收益值。在实证研究中将计算结果与EMSR为控制策略的航班收益值进行比较,显示提高了4.82%。同时,通过对RBPSCM中价格参数和非价格参数适当调控可以达到提高收益的目的。更多还原

【Abstract】 The revenue management is an effective management technology which has been testified widely by airlines at home and abroad. The research on air passenger choice behavior and its application to revenue management based on it shows the idea of passenger-oriented, while not only taking account of the airline’s benefit. And it is also the leading issue in the field of revenue management. What’s more, the research provides the use of reference and a new angle for further implementation of revenue management in airlines. The major object of this research is aimed at air passenger choice behavior and its application to revenue management based on it. The main content of this paper can be included as following aspects.First, the background of this research was analyzed. The contradictions between airlines which one-sided pursue own income to maximization and passengers whose benefit is damaged leads to the need for research. At the same time, it is possible to research because of the deregulating of CAAC, and the introduction of overseas revenue management technology, and the development of domestic revenue management.Second, the emergence, development and application areas of revenue management were summarized systematically in this paper. Then the latest progress of domestic and foreign revenue management was summarized and the future research was pointed out. At the same time, the reascher progress of air passenger choice behavior was summarized and analyzed by four aspects.The frame system of passenger choice behavior and revenue management based on it was constructed, which was discussed from the passenger choice behavior between macroscopic and microscopic.On the passenger macroscopic choice behavior aside, series strategies and qualitative results of revenue management were gained. Firstly, a series of revenue management based on the structural characteristics and the tendency of passenger choice behavior were gained through fitting and selecting the best model. Secondly, a series of revenue management based on the passengers’behavior characters when they choose among different airlines, flights and fare class were generalized and developed a flow framework about passengers’choice. Thirdly, multiple fare product strategies based on revenue management and the airlines should make diversiform and multi-hierarchy price system according to different passengers through analysizing four passengers and airlines have inner driving force to depreciate. On the passenger microscopic choice behavior aside, Firstly, based on Logit model, this paper develops a passenger flight choice model (PFCM) using variable precision rough set (VPRS) approach. Satisfying the required precision, this model can find out the real attributes which affect the choice of passenger on flight and the weights of these attributes without any prior information. Based on this model, the probability of passenger flight choice could be determined, which can make reference for airlines to design products and improve marketing strategy. Secondly, considering the limitations of EMSR and traditional study on passenger seat choice behavior, this paper establishes passenger seat choice model (PSCM) and revenue based on passenger seat choice model (RBPSCM) using variable precision rough set (VPRS) and Logit model. Satisfying the required precision, these models analyze the data set about passenger seat choice and find out the real attributes which affect the choice of passenger on seat and the weights of these attributes without any prior information and the analytic expression function of probability distribution. So PSCM and RBPSCM can directly get the real attributes, weights, probability of passenger seat choice and revenue of flight. Comparing with the amount of revenue based on EMSR, which proves that the PSCM and RBPSCM have better practical and increase 4.82 percent revenue. The models can offer reference and a new angle for further revenue management in airlines.更多还原