【作者】 卓翔芝；

【导师】 王旭；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 供应链联盟是一个具有动态非线性网络组织结构特征的复杂巨系统。这一系统不仅包括供应链内部的若干供应商、制造商、分销商以及消费者,还包括供应链联盟外的社会、经济、文化、自然环境等多因素。联盟中伙伴企业的生存和发展不仅与自身的实践有关,还与供应链联盟中的其他伙伴的复杂关系及其他复杂因素有关。每个节点企业可能同时处于不同网络组织上的节点,处于不同的外部经济环境、不同的行业、不同的生产技术和生产不同产品,各自具有不同的甚至是相互冲突的利益诉求,市场环境、客户需求也在不断变化,供应链联盟系统越来越多地表现出复杂性特征。供应链联盟伙伴企业面对联盟内外部复杂关系无所适从,导致大量决策失误,管理混乱,控制力减弱,效率低下,交易成本上升,经营风险加大等,对企业的经营和发展产生非常不利的影响。因此,供应链联盟伙伴企业如何认识和处理这些复杂关系,在这种复杂的关系网络中采取什么样的战略和策略,对企业的生存和发展至关重要。供应链联盟伙伴之间关系的核心是利益关系,伙伴关系的基础是信任关系,伙伴关系在联盟的运作和管理中的表现形式是合作竞争,伙伴企业的合作竞争将影响伙伴企业所承担的风险,而伙伴企业所承担的风险必须要在利益分配中得到体现。因此,本文围绕着供应链联盟伙伴企业之间的关系演化,运用管理学、经济学、生态学、数学、博弈论等学科的理论和方法,分别研究了供应链联盟伙伴之间的合作竞争关系的演化、信任关系的演化以及伙伴企业之间的利益关系演化,并讨论了基于供应链联盟伙伴关系演化的关系管理问题。论文的主要内容和研究成果大致如下:①简要阐述了本文研究的背景和研究意义,介绍了本文的主要内容、章节结构、现有研究现状,指出了已有研究存在的不足,简要地介绍了本文的研究思路。②研究了供应链联盟伙伴关系的定义、关系特点、供应链伙伴关系演化的理论起源及主要内容,并对供应链联盟伙伴关系演化的过程和特征、演化的影响因素进行了研究。③研究了供应链联盟伙伴合作竞争关系演化。首先概述了供应链联盟伙伴的合作竞争关系,然后研究了合作竞争关系的特点及合作竞争的模式,最后借鉴共生理论,分别就主体均势和主体非均势供应链联盟伙伴之间合作竞争关系建立了Volterra模型,讨论供应链联盟中伙伴之间的这种合作竞争关系的规律及对联盟稳定性的影响,得出联盟稳定的条件。④研究了供应链联盟伙伴信任关系的演化。首先研究供应链联盟伙伴信任的特点及信任作用的机制,然后利用贝叶斯概率估计,考虑了基于伙伴间直接交易历史的直接信任值以及基于第三方推荐的推荐信任值,并根据信任值的更新机制,将履行承诺的能力及对不守信行为惩罚的制度安排隐含其中,分别对直接交易信任值和推荐信任值进行了更新,得出了伙伴企业间的信任值的综合评估模型,定量地研究供应链伙伴企业间的信任的评估。最后利用进化博弈理论,分别对伙伴之间的主体均势和非均势情况讨论了供应链联盟伙伴企业信任关系的演化规律,得出联盟稳定的条件。⑤研究了供应链联盟伙伴之间的利益关系的演化。在讨论供应链联盟合作利益及联盟风险的基础上,从联盟风险事件发生的概率、风险事件造成的损失及伙伴的投资等因素将伙伴企业承担的风险进行量化,将伙伴企业对联盟的贡献及承担的风险考虑到分配之中。最后,利用博弈理论,对供应链联盟伙伴企业利益关系演化进行了研究。⑥研究了基于供应链联盟伙伴关系演化的关系管理问题。根据前面对供应链联盟伙伴关系演化的研究,首先研究供应链联盟伙伴关系管理的背景、理论基础,然后从确定供应链联盟伙伴关系的目标、创建伙伴关系、在合作竞争中实现关系的稳定及伙伴之信任的建立等方面研究了供应链联盟伙伴关系管理,并对汽车行业供应链联盟伙伴关系的演化过程及管理进行了研究。论文的创新之处主要表现在以下四个方面:①借鉴共生理论,分别就主体均势和主体非均势供应链联盟伙伴之间竞争合作关系建立了Volterra模型,讨论供应链联盟中伙伴之间的这种合作竞争关系对联盟稳定性的影响,从合作与竞争的矛盾中来研究供应链联盟的稳定性问题,并利用合作竞争的规律来提升企业自身的竞争优势。这个结论将人们对供应链联盟伙伴之间的合作竞争关系的认识从感性上升到理性,从理论上很好地解释了供应链联盟中的伙伴企业之间通过既合作又竞争、既有付出又有回报的共生关系,使供应链伙伴企业在合作与竞争中达到互利均衡。②在分析供应链联盟伙伴间的信任产生于伙伴企业的声誉和伙伴企业间沟通的基础上,利用贝叶斯概率估计,考虑了基于伙伴间直接交易历史的直接信任值以及基于第三方推荐的推荐信任值,并根据信任值的更新机制,将履行承诺的能力及对不守信行为惩罚的制度安排隐含其中,分别对直接交易信任值和推荐信任值进行了更新,最后得出了伙伴企业间的信任值的综合评估模型,定量地研究供应链伙伴企业间的信任的评估。③利益进化博弈理论,分别针对主体均势和主体非均势情况对供应链联盟伙伴信任关系的演化规律进行研究。研究表明:在实际博弈中,初始的时候博弈方选择守信概率的大小直接决定着博弈的收敛方向,而这个概率与选择这种模式能够带给企业的收益大小有关。联盟的收益与守信成本的比例越大,联盟中伙伴守信的意愿越大,联盟越趋于稳定;当博弈双方平分守信成本及守信收益时,联盟进化为稳定信任关系的可能性最大。④研究联盟伙伴企业在联盟经营管理中获得的收益及所承担的风险,从联盟风险事件发生的概率、风险事件造成的损失及伙伴的投资等因素将伙伴企业承担的风险进行量化,将承担的风险因子定量化,并根据企业对联盟的贡献、企业在联盟中承担的风险,及利益分配的次可加性等分配原则,对Shapley-value利益分配法进行风险修正。更多还原

【Abstract】 Supply Chain Alliance is a complex giant system characteristive of the organizational structure of non-linear dynamics network. The system includes not only a number of suppliers, manufacturers, distributors and consumers within the supply chain, but also sevaral factors such as society, economic, cultural, natural environment outside the supply chain. The survival and development of partner enterprises related to their own practice as well as their complex relations with other partners in supply chain alliance and other complex factors. Owing to the fact that each node enterprise may be included in different network organization at the same time and may be in different external economic environment, different industries and adopt different production technologies and produce different products which resulted to their different and even conflicting demands of interests, added by the consist changes of market environment and demands of customers, The System of Supply Chain Alliance is showing more and more complexities. Partner enterprises in Supply Chain Alliance were lost at the complex internal and external relations which have led to a large number of mistakes in decision-making, management, weakened control, low efficiency, increased transaction costs and waxed business risk and so on,and all of them have imposed a negative impact on the operation and development of these enterprisis. As a result, how to indentify and deal with these complex relationships and make what kind of strategy and tactics in sush complicated network of relations have seemed extremly critical to the survival and development for the partner enterprises.The core of the relationship between partners of Supply Chain Alliance was interest and partnership, which took the form of co-operation and competition in the alliance’s operation and management, bases on trust. The co-operation and competition betwwen business partners would affect the risks they were expected to undertake and the risks should be reflected in the distribution of benefits. Therefore, this paper focused on the evolution of relationship between partner enterprises in the Supply Chain Alliance and used management science, economics, ecology, mathematics, game theory, and other subjects of theory and methods to study the evolution of the relationship of co-operation and competition between partner enterprises in the Supply Chain and the evolution of relations of trust between business partners, as well as the risk of interest. What’s more, the paper discussed the problems of management based on the evolution of the partnership relationship in the Supply Chain Alliance. The main contents and research findings of the papers are as follows:①briefly describes the background and significance of the research, introduced the main contents of the paper,the structure of sections ,status of research and pointed out their shortcomings , briefly introduced the clue the paper tracked to undertake the research.②introduced the definition of Partnership for Supply Chain Alliance and its characteristics and the original theory which the Partnership came from and its main contents ,studied the process and features of the evolution of relations between the coalition partners and the factors which affected the evolution.③studied the evolution of the relationship of co-operation and competition between partners in the supply chain alliance .Firstly the paper provided an interview of the relationship of co-operation and competition between partners in the supply chain alliance ,and then studied the characteristics and model of of the relationship, finally the paper referred to the symbiotic theory to repectively establish Volterra model for the relationship in the supply chain alliance of main balance of power and the main non-equilibrium, also discussed the influence the relationship had on the stability of the alliance to come to the condition under which the alliance was expected to get the stability .④studied of the evolution of the relationship of trust between partners in the supply chain coalition. First of all,the paper studied the characteristics of the relationship of trust and the mechanism in which the relationship of trust would work ,, and then used Bayesian probability to estimate, taking into account the direct value of the trust based on the history of the direct trading as well as the recommended value of the trust based on the recommendation of a third party .What’s more ,the paper implicated the ability to fulfill the commitment and the institution to punish acts of bad faith to respectively update the direct value of the trust and the recommended value of the trust according to the Update mechanism .So,we got the model to comprehensively assess the value of the trust for all the partner enterprises and quantitatively studied the assessment of the value of trust.Subsequently, the paper adopted the evolutionary of game theory to respectively discuss the law of the evolution of the relationship of co-operation and competition in the symmetrical and asymmetrical situation to obtain the condition of stability for the alliance.⑤studied of the relation between risk and interest of the partner enterprises . First of all, the paper studied the mathematical expression of of interest brought by co-operation, the mechanism of interest and the factors which would affect the interest, and then studied features of the risk of operation management in the supply chain alliance and what could influence the risk,finally according to the contribution each company made to the alliance and the risks they undertook and the principle that the earnings should equal to the risks, the paper quantified the factors of risk to modify the risks with the method of distribution of benefits Shapley-value ,which made the distribution more scientific and reasonable.⑥studied the management which followed the evolution of the relationship in the alliance. According to the previous research for the evolution of the relationship between partners,the paper firstly studied the background and theoretical basis of the management of relationship , and then studied the management from multi-perspective such as identification of the goals of the relationship ,the establishment of partnerships and the realization of the stability of the relationship in the cooperation and competition and establishment of from the Supply Chain Alliance partnership, the creation of relationship of trust, finally studied the evolution of partnership and the management in the automotive industry.The innovation of the thesis was reflected in the following four aspects:①refered to the symbiotic theory to repectively establish Volterra model for the relationship in the supply chain alliance of main balance of power and the main non-equilibrium, and discussed the influence the relationship had on the stability of the alliance ,studied the stability of the supply chain alliance from the contradiction between co-operation and competition, and enhance their competitive edge in the use of the law of co-operation and competition. The conclusion will elevat the public’s indea about the relation of co-operation and competition in the supply chain alliance from perceptually to rationally, and it will be a good theory to explain the symbiotic relationship, that is to say, the relationship of not only to cooperate but also to compete, the relationship of not only to pay but also to return, between the partners in the supply chain alliance, which would balance the benefit through both cooperation and competition.②in the process of the analysis that the trust between the coalition partners came from the enterprise’s reputation and communication between each other ,the paper used Bayesian probability to estimate, taking into account the direct value of the trust based on the history of the direct trading as well as the recommended value of the trust based on the recommendation of a third party .What’s more, the paper implicated the ability to fulfill the commitment and the institution to punish acts of bad faith to respectively update the direct value of the trust and the recommended value of the trust according to the Update mechanism .Ultimately, we got the model to comprehensively assess the value of the trust for all the partner enterprises and quantitatively studied the assessment of the value of trust .③the game theory of the evolution of interests, the paper respectively discuss the law of the evolution of the relationship of co-operation and competition in the symmetrical and asymmetrical situation .The research showed that: in the actual game, which level the partner enterprises would reach by learning related to the probability of the initial choice of co-operation, while the probability responded to the profits which were expected after the selection of the model .Greater the proportion of the profits to the cost of co-operation was , and greater the willingness to cooperate in the coalition partners was, more stable the the alliance was to; when the two sides got the same cost and profits of co-operation, most likely the alliance would evolute to a status of stable relationship of cooperation. The conclusion expressed that in the long-term evolution of partnership, it was only based on long-term interests of the enterprises and throngh repeated studies that ultimatly the relationship would stably evolute to a decision-making.④through the study of benefits and risks in the operation and management in the supply chain alliance, according to principle of the distribution of benefits and risk-sharing, the paper used the Shapley-value method to distribute benefits between the supply chain partners ,at the same the paper studied the risks of the co-operation the partners were to bear.Taking into account the probability of the risks, the loss caused by such risks and other factors such as joint venture investment, the paper quantified the risks and combined contribution enterprises made to alliance and facters of risk they undertook to the distribution of benefits, and modified the risk factors of Shapley-value method to distribute benefits between partner enterprises, which made the the distribution more scientific and rational.更多还原