【作者】 王旭升；

【导师】 张桂文；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 政治经济学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,我国经济保持了长期而平稳的高增长态势,1978-2006年年均GDP增长率达到10%左右。但与此同时,日趋严峻的就业形势却一直困扰着各级政府决策者。作为对这种现象的积极回应,学者们就经济增长与就业增长的非一致性变动关系进行了广泛研究,从不同侧面考察和解释了这种非一致性变动关系的产生原因和应对策略。不过,截至目前,以我国经济增长与就业增长之间非一致性变动问题为研究对象所形成的学术成果尚缺乏全面性和系统性。正是在这种背景下,本文从宏观和微观双重视角出发,通过结合柯布-道格拉斯生产函数与企业利润最大化生产条件,构建劳动力需求模型。在此基础上,论证了资本存量、职工工资和技术进步这三大因素对我国就业增长的决定机制,从所有制结构、产业结构、收入分配格局及劳动力市场完善程度等方面入手,进一步分析了影响我国就业增长的深层原因,并据此提出扩大就业量、促进我国就业持续增长的应对策略,以期进一步丰富和完善现有的研究成果、弥补其非系统化所导致的缺憾。研究结果显示,解决这一问题必须从我国经济发展的特定背景出发,大力促进第三产业发展,加快推进民营经济发展,缩小居民收入分配差距,健全与完善劳动力市场。本文主要内容如下:第一,对经济增长与就业增长非一致性问题的国内外研究文献进行了系统梳理与客观评价。现有研究成果覆盖以下四个方面,即(1)马克思关于经济增长与就业变动关系的研究;(2)西方经济学各流派关于经济增长与就业变动的理论研究;(3)转轨经济学对经济增长与就业变动关系的研究;(4)国内学者对我国经济增长与就业增长关系的理论研究。不过,一方面,西方经济学各个流派的失业理论均是以成熟市场经济为背景的,未能就社会主义条件下经济增长与就业增长之间的变动关系作明确分析,在这样的背景下,劳动的供给和需求变动显然会与我国现阶段的劳动供给和需求以及二者的变动机制存在较大差异,因此在分析我国就业变动问题时,就只能采取审慎的态度来认识和应用上述失业理论及其相关的政策建议;另一方面,国内学者对我国经济增长与就业变动非一致性问题进行了解释,但是这些解释,还存在着某些片面性,没有就这一问题形成较为全面系统的理论观点,普遍忽略了对影响就业的深层次作用机理(如收入分配及劳动力市场对就业的深层影响)的详尽论证,因此,其对经济增长与就业变动非一致性的原因分析还不够全面、系统。第二,论述了我国经济增长与就业增长非一致的表现及其影响。本文观察和分析了我国改革三十年来经济增长与就业增长非一致性变动情况,并分析了经济增长与就业增长不一致造成的严重就业压力及其对社会经济发展的影响。表明在经济增长的同时,若不大力促进就业增长,则无法解决我国长期存在的失业难题,社会和谐的理想格局就无法真正的实现。第三,结合柯布-道格拉斯生产函数与企业利润最大化的生产条件,建立了一个独特且具有较强现实解释力的劳动力需求模型。通过对该模型所作的数量经济分析,本文明确了影响就业增长的三个主要因素分别为资本存量、职工工资和技术进步。在此基础上,本文选取1985-2006年间我国劳动力需求量(以全国城镇就业人数表示)、资本存量(以按1978年不变价格资本存量表示)、技术进步(以劳动生产率表示)和工资的时间序列数据,对该模型进行了协整方程估计。估计结果表明,1985-2006年,无论是资本存量、技术进步还是工资水平,其变动状况对我国就业的带动作用均是较小的,因此,难以在促进经济增长的同时显著改善严峻的就业形势。第四,着重分析了影响就业增长的深层原因。影响就业增长的主要因素——资本存量、技术进步和工资水平——对就业的影响都是双向的,其正向带动作用的发挥受到了我国所有制结构、产业结构、收入分配差距以及劳动力市场完善程度的明显制约。也就是说,所有制结构、产业结构、收入分配差距的变动状况和劳动力市场完善程度实际构成了我国经济增长与就业增长非一致性变动的深层原因。基于这一认识,本文以我国近三十年来经济发展的现实路径为背景,详尽论述了民营经济发展不足、第三产业发展滞后、收入分配差距不断加大和劳动力市场不完善等深层原因对我国就业增长所形成的抑制性机理,从而在根本上系统回答了我国经济增长与就业增长非一致性的原因和演进机制。第五,在全面阐述我国经济增长与就业增长非一致性变动关系的形成原因和变化趋势的基础上,根据我国经济社会发展的实际情况,明确了促进就业增长、扩大就业量的具体对策,即:加快发展民营经济、大力发展第三产业、缩小收入分配差距和完善劳动力市场,从而为解决长期困扰我国的就业增长难题提供系统的理论解释和实践路径,深化和统一了现有理论研究成果所形成的各种观点和认识。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since reform and opening up, long-term and steady economic fast-growth has been kept in China. However, the employment situation becomes increasingly serious. The non-consistency between economic growth and employment growth has been paid more attention, on which attracts the scholars analyze and put forward the corresponding countermeasures. So far, it is difficult for us to found systemic and general fruit on it. Then, how to systematically analyze the main influential factors on employment growth? Which restricts these factors? And what are the further reasons for less employment growth? How to realize synchronously increasing of economy and employment, etc.? These problems become more important, which is also just the aim of research to be solved. From the viewpoint of macroeconomic and microeconomic, the paper builds labor demand model with the combination of Cobb-Douglas production function and productive conditions of profit maximization. Then the main factors influencing employment growth are analyzed, such as capital input, wage and technology progress. In addition, the influences of more factors are further studied. At last, the thesis put forward the corresponding measurements to improve employment elasticity.The main contents are as follows:First, the systematic summary and evaluation of related researches on employment growth is given. The current researches include four parts about the non-consistency between economic growth and employment growth. They are Marxist Economics relevant to economic growth and employment growth,theory about economics growth and employment growth from main schools of western economics,study on relation between economy growth and employment in the field of Translate and the academic fruit about economy growth and employment growth from scholars in China.One side, Study from main schools of economics is basis on the well rounded marketing economy.It can not clearly analyze relation between economy growth and employment growth in social democracy.threlation between labour supply and demand is different from it in China. So when we analyze employment in China .We apply west employment theory prudently. On the other side, the non-consistency between economic growth and employment growth coming from the scholars in China was analyzed only from the view of economic structure, technology progress and ternary lag. In addition, further analysis on affection of income distribution gap and incomplete labor marketing was ignored.Therefore present researches are lack of enough systematic explanation, and analysis on further reasons as well. So analysis on reason about non-consistency between economy growth and employment growth is lack in systemic and general.Second, with the observation and analysis on the non-consistency between economic growth and employment growth since 30 years ago, the paper describes the behavior and influence of the non-consistency. Moreover, heavy employment pressure result from non-consistency between economic growth and employment growth. The result shows that improvement of employment growth is the key to improve employment situatant in our country.Third, labor demand model is built with the combination of Cobb-Douglass production function and productive conditions of profit maximization. The main factors are determined, including input capital, technology progress and wage. The paper selects data of employment in town, capital and wage to estimate the model by co-integrations during 1985-2006. The result shows that factors like capital input, technology and wage, can only improve the employment slightly. It can hardly relieve the employment situation in short term.Fourth, Analysis on further reasons influencing employment growth .Because the factors have dual-way impact on employment, the positive effect is restricted by the adjustment of ownership structure, industrial structure, gap of income distribution and labor marketing situation. So the thesis makes analysis on the further reasons. As far as the structure is concerned, non-stated owned economy translate institutional advantages into competitive advantages in marketing economy and promote employment. But non-stated owned economy also has its shortcomings. There are many problems to be improved. As to the industrial structure, tertiary industry is becoming the main section to settle employment in our country. But the lower level of marketing and urbanization restricts the development of tertiary industry. As to income distribution, the enlarging of income distribution gap influences the employment growth and demand structure, and then results in reduction of consumption demand. At last, the paper discusses labor marketing division between city and country and labor marketing division in town. The paper also makes analysis on the shortage of systematic service system on employment. It restricts the function of labor market, which brings some reduction on employment.Fifth, on the basis of further analysis of influencing factors, the thesis analyzes the reasons about non-consistency between economic growth and employment growth and puts forward relative measures: accelerate development of non-stated owned, promote tertiary industry, reduce gap of income distribution, and amend labor marketing system. As result, this part deepens and unifies the viewpoints of the existing research achievement.更多还原