【作者】 耿乃国；

【导师】 唐晓华；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 产业经济学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 ICT(信息通讯技术)产业在经济社会中起到了越来越重要的作用,ICT产业表现出了与传统产业明显不同的技术特点和经济特征。网络效应显著,就是ICT产业所具有的一个经济特征之一。在ICT产业中,技术标准不仅是企业之间竞争的手段和目标,而且也是影响和决定产业绩效的最重要因素。本文通过对ICT产业技术特征的分析,来深入研究ICT产业技术标准竞争策略与技术标准合作行为。在网络效应显著的产业中,存在一条“预期实现的需求曲线”。由于这条“预期实现的需求曲线”是一条向下凹的二次曲线,市场将会出现多重均衡现象。存在一个较小网络规模的“临界容量”均衡点,和较大规模的“大网络均衡”点。通过分析可以得出:较小网络规模的“临界容量”均衡点是一个发散的不稳定均衡;较大规模的“大网络均衡”是一个收敛的稳定均衡。在网络效应显著的产业,厂商为了获得市场主导地位,在市场竞争中获胜,就要通过竞争手段,在正反馈的作用下,达到“大网络均衡”点,从而达到“赢家通吃”的目的。伴随着计算机的出现,信息社会的发展,标准的地位和作用已经得到了前所未有的加强。标准已经从传统经济中所起到的提高产品质量、提高生产效率、提供产品信息、保障生产安全等作用,转化为产业竞争策略、提高进入壁垒手段,乃至成为一个国家或地区经济发展战略的地位。在ICT产业中,由于其自身所具有的技术含量高、技术复杂程度高、技术更新速度快、技术兼容性及网络效应显著等特点,技术标准在ICT产业中的地位和作用更加突出。在ICT产业中,拥有技术标准是厂商获得“大网络均衡”的最有效手段。在技术标准的获得上,厂商将根据市场的结构的不同,采取标准竞争或标准合作的不同行为。本文的分析基础是传统的SCP框架,但对企业的行为提出了修正。在传统产业组织理论通常是以新古典“完全竞争”市场和“完全理性”厂商为基础,将新古典主义完全竞争效率作为衡量产业绩效的标准,以此来讨论不完全市场。在传统理论中,最优的市场结构应该是“完全竞争”的。根据斯密—杨定理,在一定的条件下,市场集中是一个必然的趋势,集中化主要表现为几个大厂商共同占有市场的形态,即寡占的市场。在这个条件下,市场的串谋行为就成为衡量市场价格稳定和均衡的关键。也就是说在传统理论中,市场在寡占的市场结构中,合谋是必然的。在正统产业组织理论当中,企业之间的竞争与合作是无法共存的,合作一定是扼杀竞争和伤害社会福利的。正统产业组织理论之所以将企业之间的竞争和合作看作是无法共生的,根本原因是因为传统产业组织理论的分析是建立在供给方规模经济,假设消费需求是线性的,但是当我们从需求方规模经济的角度来重新审视企业之间的市场行为时,却可能颠覆这一传统的理论判断。在网络经济中,由于网络效应的存在,在正反馈的作用下,需求方规模经济作用明显。在“预期实现的需求曲线”存在的前提下,垄断厂商的生产者剩余与消费者剩余以及社会总剩余,存在“同向变动”的趋势。垄断厂商并不一定是以降低产量、提高垄断价格的行为获得垄断利润,这与传统产业存在明显的不同。厂商为了获得更大的网络效应,存在垄断厂商不断降低产品价格和进行合作的内在动力。在ICT产业中,技术标准合作会对社会福利起到促进作用。在ICT产业中,具有明显的网络效应。技术标准增进了产品间兼容和互联性,通过扩大网络为用户提供更大的价值,使网络效应发挥出更明显的作用。由于ICT产业自身的技术特征,单个企业由于各方而的局限性,独占标准非常困难。由于实现兼容或互联性可以实现更大的网络效应,在ICT产业标准形成过程中,合作往往是最明智的选择。技术标准合作,充分发挥了ICT产业网络效应明显的产业特征。此时,合作并不一定是合谋的。而且,由于ICT产业的技术创新不再是传统的替代性技术创新,更多的是在相同的标准架构下的互补性模块创新,只有实现不同模块技术的共同利用,每个企业才能实现价值的最大化,否则会产生阻碍创新的“反公共地悲剧”。政府在技术标准形成中应起到积极作用。在ICT产业技术标准形成的过程中,由于标准具有准公共物品属性,以及ICT产业网络效应明显等特征,政府的适当干预是会对产业的发展产生积极作用的。但是,政府是否干预应该根据基于网络效应的市场运行是否存在失灵来相机决策。在标准形成初期,网络效应不十分显著、市场对技术选择方向不十分明确时,政府不应介入,应该主要依靠市场的竞争性选择过程;在标准形成一家垄断的格局下,政府应该重点关注在位企业是否存在标准滥用行为;在新旧技术换代的阶段,政府的干预主要是防止现有技术标准对下一代技术标准发展的阻碍。对于中国这样的发展中国家,在ICT产业技术标准发展过程中,往往面临国外优势企业组成的标准联盟的策略性行为障碍,因此应该通过国家知识产权战略和自主标准创新战略,培育和发展中国的技术标准。更多还原

【Abstract】 ICT (Information and Communication Technology) industry is playing a more and more important role in economy and society. It’s going with some distinctive technological features and special economic characteristics, which are very different from those of traditional industries. Network effect is one of those charateristics in ICT industry. In ICT industry, technical standards are not only taken as the pathway and purpose by competitors, but also taken as the most important factors which influence and determine the industrial performance. Focusing on the technical characteristics of ICT industry, this paper aims at studying competitive strategies and cooperative behaviors of technical standards in ICT industry.Among the industries with remarkable network effects,‘fulfilled expectations demand curve’exists. Because this curve is a U-shaped quadric curve, there will be multi-ply equilibriums in the market, which bring about a‘critical volume’equilibrium point in small-size network and a large-size network equilibrium point. With the analysis, a conclusion is: a‘critical volume’equilibrium point in small-size network is an emanative unstable equilibrium; a large-size network equilibrium is a convergent stable equilibrium. Among the industries with remarkable network effect, manufacturers have to compete with others to get leading positions in competitive markets. Under positive feedback functions, the manufacturers reach‘large-size network equilibrium’point and finally achieve the goal of‘winner-take-all’. With the computers coming into being and informationalized society developing, the importance of Technical Standards is stressed much more than anytime before. In traditional economy the Standard was used for improving product quality, enhancing productivity, supplying product information and safeguarding production process, but now it has been emphasized as strategy of industrial competition, means to strengthen entry barriers, and even as strategy of economy development for a nation or a region. Besides the network effect, the ICT industries is also characterized by high technologies with complex, fast-changing and compatibility, so the technical standard functions are much more outstanding and distinct. In ICT industry, the ownership of technical standards is the most effective to achieve‘large-size network equilibrium’. In the course of attaining technical standards, manufacturers will depend on differences of market structures to make different choices on standard competition or standard cooperation.The analysis is based on the traditional framework of SCP, but puts forward some advices to revise the conduct of a company.Traditional industrial organization theories used to be based on neo-classical‘perfect competitive’market and‘complete rationality’of manufacturers, and take the efficiency of neo-classical complete competition as the standard to measure the industrial performance, but the market they discuss is imperfect. In traditional theories, the optimized market structure should be perfect competitive. According to Simith-Young’s principle, under certain conditions, market concentrating is an inevitable trend, in which big manufacturers jointly occupy the whole market, namely oligopoly market. In this case, collusion behavior is the critical factor in measuring the stability of market price and equilibrium. A conclusion can be drawn safely that, in traditional theories, market is in oligopoly structure and collusion is inevitable. In orthodox industrial organization theories, the competition and cooperation between enterprises can no coexist, cooperation is deemed to expel competition and undermine the social welfare. This traditional idea is based on the scale economy of suppliers and hypothesis of linear consumption demands, but when the market behaviors of enterprises are studied from the point of view of scale economy of demanders, this traditional theory will be at the risk of being overturned.In network economy, because of the existence of network effect and the function of positive feedback, the effect of demanders’scale economy is prominent. In the case of‘fulfilled expectations demand curve’, producer surplus of monopoly, consumer surplus and social total surplus will possibly vary on the same trend. Monopoly will not necessarily cut down production and increase monopolized price to make monopolized profit. This case is very different from traditional industries. To achieve more network effect, monopoly has motivations to decrease price and look for cooperation. In ICT industry, technical standard cooperation can promote socail welfare. The network effect is especially prominent in ICT industry. Technical standard can improve compatibility and correlation of products. Enlarging the network can provide customers with more value and realize maximum effect. For the reasons of characteristics in ICT industry, single enterprise has many limitations and impossibly monopolizes standard. Because compatibility and correlation can help realize maximum effect of network, in the course of standard formation, cooperation is the wisest option. Technical standard cooperation in ICT industry makes the distinct feature of network effect fully function. This cooperation is not necessarily collusion. Moreover, the technical innovation in ICT industry is no more substitution of traditional technical innovation, so more innovations are complemental modules under the same standard framework. Utilizing different module technologies together is the only way for each enterprise to maximize its value, otherwise there will be a‘tragedy of anticommons’, which surely hinders the innovation process.Government should play an active role in formation of technical standard. In the course of formation of technical standard in ICT industry, standard has a semi-public attribute and network effect is quite distinct, so the government’s proper intervention can promote the development of industry. Nevertheless, this kind of intervention must be based on the occasion when the market operation of network effect fails. At the beginning period of standard formation, network effect doesn’t appear prominently and option of technologies by market is not quiet clear, so government should not be involved in, but give up intervention to competitive choice process of market. In case of the standard monopolized by one enterprise, the government should supervise its behavior and determine whether it is abusing the standard. At the stage of new technologies to replace the old ones, the government’s intervention focuses on preventing the current technical standard from blocking the development of next generation techniacl standard. For China, a developing country, the development of technical standard in ICT industry frequently encounters the challenges from the strategic behavior of technical standard union formed by foreign preponderant businesses. So technical standards should be fostered and developed with the strategies of national intellectual property and self-made standard innovation.更多还原