【作者】 付岱山；

【导师】 张荔；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 金融学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 流动性过剩对中国经济造成了很多负面影响,引起了理论界和实际部门的高度重视,并且已经采取了很多解决措施。本文正是在这样的背景下创作的。1.研究目的分析中国流动性状况,探索中国流动性过剩的真正原因,明确流动性过剩对中国经济的真实影响,客观评价中国金融宏观调控政策的效果,为中国解决流动性过剩问题提出合理的政策主张。2.研究方法本文最重要的方法论创新是:运用严谨的形式逻辑方法从内涵与外延两个角度明确了流动性概念;运用会计流程方法对流动性的形成机理和过剩原因进行探索。除此之外,本文还综合运用了实证分析与规范分析、定量分析与定性分析、技术分析与制度分析、事实分析与理论分析等多种分析方法。3.主要研究内容和研究成果(1)明确了流动性概念考查了流动性概念的起源,在此基础上总结了流动性的特有属性并通过定义揭示出流动性的内涵;概括了流动性理论的发展,在此基础上分析了流动性的种属关系并通过划分确定了流动性的外延。流动性是指资产转换为现金的难易程度,流动性资产是指转换为现金能力比较强的资产,人们往往习惯于将流动性资产称为流动性,在宏观上,流动性包括个人流动性、企业流动性、商业银行流动性、中央银行流动性和政府流动性,其形态主要是现金、银行存款、有价证券、票据、存货、短期债权、外汇和其他各种流动资产。中国人民银行公开市场业务一级交易商流动性日报制度特别规定商业银行的流动性就是指商业银行的库存现金和在中央银行的存款。(2)揭示了流动性过剩的本质,总结了流动性过剩的现象流动性过剩的本质就是指流动性资产过多;流动性过剩的现象则主要是现金过多、银行存款过多、商业银行存款准备金过多、外汇过多、有价证券市值过大、商业银行存差过大等等;流动性过剩的本质通过流动性过剩的现象而得到表现,流动性过剩的现象反映着流动性过剩的本质,但流动性过剩的本质并不等于流动性过剩的现象,割裂流动性过剩本质与流动性过剩现象的内在联系是错误的,把流动性过剩现象当作流动性过剩本质或者把流动性过剩本质当作流动性过剩现象也同样是错误的。(3)从理论层面分析了流动性过剩的原因和结果以流动性的内涵及流动性过剩的本质为依据,以流动性在国民经济各部门的转移为线索,以流动性转移过程中流动性形态的变换为重点,运用会计流程方法分析了流动性的形成机理,揭示了流动性过剩的原因。研究发现:流动性过剩的原因有货币供应量增长过快、国际收支顺差规模过大、股票和债券价格上涨、房地产价格上涨、财政扩张等等,而且这些原因之间也有一定的因果关系。流动性过剩的结果是指流动性过剩导致的经济后果(亦即流动性过剩对国民经济的影响)。研究发现:流动性过剩会引起消费品价格上涨进而影响居民生活水平、会导致股票价格和房地产价格上涨从而扩大经济泡沫风险、会影响商业银行的正常经营活动从而弱化金融效能。在一定条件下,流动性过剩的原因与流动性过剩之间的因果关系是确定的,不能把流动性过剩的原因定义为流动性过剩本身,也不能把流动性过剩理解为流动性过剩原因的原因。同样,在一定条件下,流动性过剩与流动性过剩的结果之间的因果关系也是确定的,不能把流动性过剩理解为流动性过剩的结果,也不能把流动性过剩的结果理解为流动性过剩本身。流动性过剩对流动性过剩的原因、流动性过剩的结果对流动性过剩都有一定的反作用,在一定条件下它们之间的因果关系可能出现逆转,或者出现更为复杂的互为因果的关系。(4)分析了中国流动性过剩的特征事实,从实践层面探讨了中国流动性过剩的原因和影响通过对中国流动性过剩特征事实的分析,得出了中国长期以来一直存在流动性过剩的基本判断。中国具有流动性容纳量弹性较大、流动性过剩历史悠久、流动性过剩表现集中(主要表现是中央银行外汇资产过多和商业银行的存款准备金过多)等特点。研究发现,中国流动性过剩的直接原因是货币供应量过多,根本原因是国际收支顺差过大。中国出口的强劲增长和外商直接投资规模的持续扩大导致中国国际收支顺差的不断增加,中国人民银行通过出口结售汇制度和外汇公开市场操作不断地购进各部门和各微观主体的外币债权并售出大量的人民币债务,国内流动性过剩状况越来越严重。另外,积极财政政策、鼓励出口政策、收入分配政策和人民币汇率政策等也是流动性过剩的重要原因。研究还发现,中国早期的流动性过剩对中国国民经济的影响并不显著,究其原因,一是因为早期的流动性过剩不如近些年严重,二是因为中国经济规模较大,对流动性有很大的容纳量弹性,流动性影响经济的时滞也比较长,三是因为早期的过剩流动性主要集中在银行里,没有流向市场,因此对国民经济的影响比较小。最近几年,中国的流动性不但有了突飞猛进的增长,而且中央银行将商业银行存款准备金利率降到很低的水平,流动性不断流出商业银行冲击市场,对经济的负面影响越来越大。流动性过剩对中国经济最重要的影响莫过于物价水平的上涨,不论是消费品价格上涨还是房地产价格上涨,都影响了人民群众的生活水平,也对正常的经济秩序造成了严重冲击。(5)对中国金融宏观调控政策的分析与评价对中国金融宏观调控政策进行了详细分析,发现2002年以前主要是运用传统的政策工具进行金融宏观调控,调节的目的往往不是针对流动性过剩;2002年至2006年则大量使用创新型政策工具并且以直接调节流动性为主;2007年以后在不断创新的基础上注重恢复和加强传统。提出了评价金融宏观调控政策效果的两个标准:一是看流动性本身的变化,二是看流动性过剩的负面影响。依据这两个标准,对中国金融宏观调控政策的实际效果进行了客观评价,基本结论是:存在一些问题,总体效果很好。(6)未来金融宏观调控的基本思路与政策主张短时间内中国流动性过剩的原因难以消除,为了应对流动性过剩,中国金融宏观调控必须注意与其他政策的协调配合,必须有正确的指导原则、完善的工具体系和明确的调控目标,同时,应解除不必要的担心并尽可能避免犯系统性的错误。中国金融宏观调控中政策协调的关键:金融政策与财政政策的协调与配合;中国金融宏观调控的指导原则:稳健,自主,灵活;中国金融宏观调控的中间目标:一是控制流动性规模,二是控制流动性结构;中国金融宏观调控的最终目标:主要是稳定物价,其次是经济增长;中国金融宏观调控的政策工具:传统为主,积极创新;中国金融宏观调控中应解除的两种不必要的担心:一是担心经济增长速度下降,二是担心失业增加。中国金融宏观调控中应注意避免的主要错误倾向:一是盲目地“走出去”,二是盲目地限制出口。更多还原

【Abstract】 This dissertation is written under the circumstances that excess liquidity has great negative impact on the economy of China and leads to higher attention in the academia and in actual economic departments which have taken many measures to solve the problem.1. Research objectivesThe objectives are to analyze the current situation of the fluidity so as to find out the real causes of the excess liquidity, to clarify its actual impact on the Chinese economy, and to objectively evaluate the effect of the financial macro-control policies; based on which, some reasonable policy suggestions are to be proposed to deal with the problems of excess liquidity.2. Research approachesThe most important methodological innovations in this thesis are that the concept of liquidity is defined from the perspectives of both connotation and denotation with precise formal logic methods, and the mechanism of the formation of liquidity and the causes of excess liquidity are explored with accounting activity procedures.Many analytical methods are used in this dissertation including positive analysis and normal analysis, quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, technological analysis and institutional analysis, factual analysis and theoretical analysis, etc.3. Research contents and major findings(1) Re-definition of liquidityBased on the examination on the origin of liquidity, the specific attributes of liquidity are summarized and the connotation of liquidity is revealed through re-definition. On the basis of summarization of the development of liquidity theories, the categories of liquidity are divided and the denotation of liquidity through categorization. Liquidity is referred to as the degree of easiness of transforming assets into cash, while current assets are referred to assets with higher capacity of being transformed into cash. People are usually accustomed to call current assets as liquidity. From the macro-perspective, liquidity consists of citizen liquidity, enterprise liquidity, commercial bank liquidity, central bank liquidity, and government liquidity. The major forms of liquidity are cash, bank deposit, portfolio, notes, physical stocks, short-term credit, foreign exchange and other current assets. The daily liquidity report system for the primary dealers of open market operation promulgated by People’s Bank of China stipulates that the liquidity of commercial banks is their cash in stock and deposits to the central bank.(2) Revelation of the essence and summarization of the phenomena of excess liquidityThe essence of excess liquidity is excess current assets, while the major phenomena of it are that there are excess cash, excess bank deposits, excess reserve of commercial banks, excess foreign exchange, excess vendibility of securities, and that commercial bank deposit is more than loan, etc. The essence of excess liquidity is reflected through the phenomena, while the phenomena reflect the essence of excess liquidity. However, the essence of excess liquidity is not the phenomena, and it is wrong to dissever the intrinsic relationship between the essence of excess liquidity and the phenomena, and it is equally wrong to take the essence of excess liquidity as the phenomena or the other way round.(3) Theoretical analysis of the causes and results of excess liquidityAccording to the connotation and essence of excess liquidity, the mechanism of formation of liquidity is analyzed and the causes of it are revealed through the clues of the transfer of liquidity in different economic sectors. And the transformation of the forms of liquidity is taken as the key point during transferring process of liquidity. The accounting activity procedures are used. The research shows that the causes of excess liquidity include over-increasing of money supply, excess favorable balance of international payments, rising prices of securities and real estate, expanding fiscal policy and so on. There are to some extent cause-result relationship between these reasons. The results of excess liquidity refer to the economic consequences (impacts on national economy) of excess liquidity. It is found that excess liquidity can cause price rising of consumer goods which will affect the living standard of citizens, lead to price rising of securities and real estate which will enlarge the risk of bubble economy, and influence normal operation of commercial banks which will weaken the functioning of financial efficiency. Under some circumstances, the cause-result relationship between the causes and excess liquidity is definite. The causes of excess liquidity should not be defined as excess liquidity itself, nor should excess liquidity be explained as the causes of excess liquidity causes. Similarly, under some circumstances, the cause-result relationship between excess liquidity and the results of excess liquidity is definite. Neither should excess liquidity be explained as the results of excess liquidity, nor should the results of excess liquidity be explained as excess liquidity itself. Excess liquidity has retroaction to the causes of excess liquidity, and results of excess liquidity have retroaction to excess liquidity, too. On certain conditions, their cause-result relationship may reverse, even more complicated.(4) Analysis of the characteristic facts, causes and impacts of excess liquidity in ChinaThrough the analysis of the characteristic facts of the excess liquidity, the basic judgment is made that excess liquidity has existed in China for a long period of time. The characteristics of excess liquidity are that capacity elasticity of excess liquidity is bigger; excess liquidity has last a long time, and excess liquidity phenomena is focused on excess foreign exchange assets of central bank and excess bank reserve of commercial banks.The research shows that excess money supply is the direct cause of excess liquidity, while the increasing favorable balance of international payments is the fundamental reason. The Rapid increases of exports and continuous expansion of FDI inflow lead to the continuous increase of favorable balance, and People’s Bank of China buys foreign currencies from different sections and micro-economic entities and sells large sum of the Chinese currency through foreign exchange settlement system and through open exchange market operation, then excess liquidity situation at home becomes worse and worse. Besides, proactive fiscal policy, export-encouraging policy, income distribution policy and exchange rate regime are important reasons for excess liquidity.The research also shows that early excess liquidity has less significant impact on national economy. The reasons are as follows: early excess liquidity is not as serious as nowadays; the huge economy of China has very big capacity elasticity of excess liquidity, and it requires a long time lag to influence economy; early excess liquidity is mainly concentrated in banks and does not flow into market, so it has little impact on national economy. In recent years, excess liquidity increases rapidly and at the mean time central bank lowers reserve rate of commercial banks to a very low level, then excess liquidity flows out of banks into the market, and causes more and more negative impact on national economy.The most important impact of excess liquidity on national economy is the rising price level. Both the rising consumer price and the rising real estate price have a bad influence on the living standard of citizens, and badly impact the normal economic system.(5) Analysis and evaluation of the financial macro-control policiesThe financial macro-control policies are analyzed in detail, and it is found that before 2002 traditional policy tools were mainly used for financial macro-control, which did not aim at excess liquidity; from 2002 to 2006, many innovative instruments were used to directly adjust excess liquidity; since 2007, attention is paid to resume and strengthen traditional tools, based on continuous innovation.Two criteria are proposed to evaluate the effects of financial macro-control policies: one is the change of excess liquidity; another is the negative impact of excess liquidity. According to the two criteria, the practical effect of financial macro-control policies is evaluated, and the conclusion is that several problems exist while the general effect is good.(6) Basic approaches and policy suggestions on future financial macro-control policiesSince it is difficult to remove the causes of excess liquidity in China in a short period of time, to deal with excess liquidity, the financial macro-control policies must be coordinated with other policies, and be guided under correct principles, and have improved instrument system and specific targets. At the mean time, unnecessary worrying should be relieved and systematic errors should be avoided.The keys to the policy coordination among the Chinese financial macro-control are: the coordination and combination of financial policy and fiscal policy; the moderate principles, independence and flexibility; intermediate goal of control of the scale and structure of excess liquidity; final goals of stabilizing price level first and promoting economic growth second; traditional tools plus active innovation; two unnecessary worries be relieved that economic growth will slow down and unemployment will increase; the main misunderstanding to be avoided : to "go abroad" and to restrict export unreasoningly.更多还原