【作者】 廖茂忠；

【导师】 沈红；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 教育经济与管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 一份份的学生贷款合同承载着学生个体对改变命运的希望,承载着国家对促进社会公平正义的信念;一串串的国家助学贷款违约数据,甚至屡屡曝光的国家助学贷款拖欠诉讼案例,则在动摇着人们对社会公平正义、高等教育和学生贷款先前的信念和坚持。这严重地阻碍了学生贷款的可持续发展。可以说,违约是影响学生贷款可持续发展的重要障碍。但在无休止的因果链中,违约又必然是某事物,或某事物之间运动的必然结果。然而,这里的某事物是何物?某事物之间的运动又是何物?对这两个问题的回答无疑是违约问题解决的基础。由果索因,即根据事物的发展变化过程中某一时空的状态,推断促成此状态的原因,是因果研究的最基本的方法。因此,对于学生违约结果本身的科学分析就成为揭示学生违约原因的基本途径。基于此,本研究以1690名进入还款期的借款学生为样本,通过因子分析、判别分析、聚类分析和Logistic模型分析等方法,揭示学生的还款状态(守约或违约)与其影响变量间的统计性联系,从而推断学生违约发生的原因。研究发现,影响学生违约的最重要的因素是学生贷款的总额度和单位时间内还款的额度。学生贷款额度越大,违约率则越高;学生单位时间所需偿还贷款的额度越大,违约率也越高;反之亦然。然而,学生贷款的违约不仅仅是借款学生的私事,而是一个涉及到学校、银行和社会的社会性问题,而且充满争议。基于学生个人偿还贷款的结果状态的因果分析的科学性将受到一定的限制。因此全面地理解学生贷款违约的影响因素,需要倾听国家助学贷款各运行主体的声音。论文通过对学生、教师、银行,以及社会公众的调研发现,学生偿还能力、还款意愿和社会信用制度对借款学生的违约行为有重要影响,而偿还能力是其中最为关键性的因素。这个结论也支持了由果索因的推断。以上两种方式都揭示了还款能力是学生违约的最关键因素。那么,事实上,借款学生的经济状况如何呢?只有当这个问题得到解答,才能对“偿还能力是违约因素中最为关键性的因素”这一论断进行最后的判断。本研究以国家相关部门的统计数据和相关研究为基础,谨慎测算出近年来全国本专科毕业生分不同单位性质、地区、分行业收入的收入水平,发现新参加工作的本专科毕业生收入普遍偏低,而且据就业单位的性质、地区或行业的不同收入差距悬殊。这导致不少的毕业生债务偿还能力不足。至此,可以科学地认为:偿还能力是影响违约的最为关键性的因素。然而,借款学生的偿还能力是如何与其他因素一起影响学生还贷的行为选择的呢?本研究在揭示违约因素的基础上,借鉴心理学的“计划行为理论”,分析了解释学生违约发生的机理,并认为:借款学生的偿还资源是行为选择的物质基础,偿还意向是行为选择的动力机制,偿还情境是行为选择的制约机制;借款学生的意志水平和对偿还行为实际的控制能力是行为发生的调节机制,借款学生偿还行为选择的(预期)结果及相应的社会评价是偿还行为的反馈机制。因此,学生还贷行为的选择,是由借款学生还贷的意向、偿还的情境条件、可用于还贷的资源,以及偿还贷款行为的意志和控制能力共同作用的结果。最后提出了化解中国学生贷款违约的若干改革建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 For the college students, the student loans are their hope of change their lives. Student loans are also tools to a more social justice. The high default ratio and many file cases with the loan default thwart the sustainability of student loan program and injure the belief and insistence in social justice and student loan. The loan default is the obstacle to the sustainability of loan program. But in the cycle of causes and results, default is inevitable result of interaction of some factors. This research aimed to discover these factors and their interaction.To trace the causes of the results is one of the basic methods in the research. So to make the scientific examination of the loan default is the basic means of disclose the factors affecting the probability of default. This study collected 1690 samples of borrowing students who were repaying their loans. Through factor analysis, discriminant analysis, cluster analysis and logistic model, this study reveals the statistical relation between the repaying state of the borrowing students and major variants, deduce the factors affecting the probability of default. Found that the most important factors are the total debts and the amount of repayment. The bigger debts, the higher default ratio. The bigger amount of repayment, the higher default ratio, and vice versa. The student loan default is not only the personal issue of the borrowing students. It is related with the higher education institutions, lending banks and society. It’s a social issue and is controversial. The results based only on the repayment of the borrowing students can not fully explain the factors concerning the default. So we need to listen to the voice of the participants of the student loans program. Based on the survey data from the students, faculty members, banks and the general public, this research found that the students’ repayment abilities, repayment willingness and social credit system have great influence on the default behavior of the students. But the repayment ability is the critical factor. The deduction mentioned above also got the same result.From the two aspects, we found the repayment ability is the critical factor. So what the economic status of the borrowing students? Only this question can be answered can we get the final answer to "repayment ability is the critical factor". Based on the statistical data and relevant research findings, this research made a cautious calculation of the income levels of undergraduates in different employment units, different locations, different industries in recent years. Research found that undergraduates usually got low income at the beginning of their employment and their income gap quite wide. This means that many of the graduates lack the repayment ability.How the student lenders repaying ability and other factors influence the repaying behavior? This research disclosed factors affecting the probability of default. Based on the theory of planned behavior, explain the mechanism of loan default. Found that the income is the basis of repayment, the repayment willingness is the dynamics of behavior Option, and the repayment circumstance is the restraint mechanism. The student’s self control ability to repayment is regulating mechanism. The result from their behavior Option and social evaluation is the feedback mechanism. So, the student’s behavior is a common outcome of the repayment willingness, repayment circumstance, the resources available and self control ability to repayment.更多还原