【作者】 丛方杰；

【导师】 周惠成；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 水文学与水资源， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 水是生命之源,是人类赖以生存的不可替代的资源。城市的快速发展引起了一系列水问题,特别是北方沿海城市以及一些水污染严重的地方,水资源已经成为城市发展的最大制约因素,而水资源可持续利用是解决水危机的唯一方法。本文研究了水基系统的相关概念和复杂适应理论在城市水资源复合系统中的应用、水资源综合评价技术、演变控制理论、合理配置模型和管理决策支持系统。全文主要内容及结论如下:(1)将水基和复杂适应理论应用到城市水资源复合系统的研究中。首先,阐述了城市水基系统的内涵并分析了其主要特征,城市水基系统与城市水资源系统最重要的区别表现在系统的组成结构上:前者将系统自身看作是大自然和人共同作用的产物,而将水资源管理系统看作是人思维的产物;后者将水资源管理系统看作是自身的一个子系统。然后,在分析了城市水资源复合系统复杂适应特征的基础上,针对系统中主体和对象并存、作为主体的人和其它生物并存的特殊现象,分别构建了人的刺激—学习适应—反应模型、其它生物的刺激—反应模型以及对象的刺激—反应模型,三者构成了系统的微观模型,并在此基础上构建了系统的扩展ECHO模型。扩展ECHO模型的主体可以与其他主体或对象交流资源。(2)城市水基系统的健康可以用稳定态、和谐度和演进率共同来表征。系统的健康评价是考虑其当前状态和发展趋势的综合评价,与传统的综合评价方法相比,由于将系统的“势”细分为稳定态演进率与和谐度演进率,因此能为决策者提供更多的信息。本文将稳定态、和谐度、演进率和健康状况进一步细分成四个等级,通过综合稳定态和综合和谐度来表征系统的健康状况,其中综合稳定态又包括稳定态及其演进率,综合和谐度又包括和谐度及其演进率,因此与水基系统相关理论已有的评价思路相比,可以为决策者提供更详细的过程信息和健康水平信息。权重对评价结果有很大影响,从权重组合可靠性的角度来看,指标的经验权重和数学权重分布越一致,评价的可靠性就越高,因此提出了基于可靠性分析的指标权重组合确定方法。通过对大连市水基系统和烟台市水基系统的健康评价及对比分析可知,系统的健康状况都在水文周期的影响下呈波动演化过程,如何减少水文周期对系统健康状况的影响,在不牺牲生态环境的前提下为城市提供稳定的供水保障是大连和烟台等北方沿海城市水资源管理的首要问题。(3)基于Logistic(L)曲线和Gompertz(G)曲线研究了城市水资源复合系统的演化轨迹,基于组合S型曲线研究了系统的可持续演化轨迹。对L曲线和G曲线微分形式的分析表明,L曲线的成长期和全盛期以及G曲线的成长期、全盛期和成熟期分别是其可持续发展区,在一个发展周期内,应使系统尽可能地停留在可持续发展区。对L曲线的差分形式分析表明,适当的发展速度是实现系统可持续发展的关键,应尽可能使发展速度处在最优发展区间,过低影响当代人的发展和社会进步,过高又会导致系统演化过程的不稳定。城市水资源复合系统的可持续发展过程可以用组合S型曲线来描述,组合S型曲线层次间的衔接问题对探讨可持续发展是至关重要的,成熟点是L曲线和G曲线各层衔接的关键点,把第i+1层的起动点放在第i层的成熟点上,构造了系统的组合S型可持续发展轨迹方程和相应的轨迹图。对大连和烟台的实例分析表明本文构造的方法是可行的。(4)将复杂适应理论应用到水资源合理配置的研究中,构建了城市水资源配置复杂适应模型。针对城市用水过程的复杂适应特征,以水资源配置为主线,构建了多层次的城市水资源配置复杂适应模型,分析了各级主体适应过程的行为目标和通信机制。与传统的水资源配置模型相比,基于复杂适应理论的配置模型通过通信机制将各级主体联系在一起,构成水资源配置整体,因此具有较好的系统性、整体性和层次性。从复杂适应理论的角度来看,城市水资源的优化配置正是城市水资源复合系统不同层次上的主体不断学习、适应和协调的结果。将城市水资源配置的复杂适应过程在纵向上划分成系统级、部门级和群体级主体,在横向上划分成供需平衡过程和配置适应过程,研究了不同中水和海水利用水平下的大连市2010年和2020年水资源配置适应过程。(5)设计了城市水资源管理决策支持系统的总体框架,开发了大连市城市地下水资源管理信息系统。根据城市水资源管理的业务特点,将城市水资源管理决策支持系统分为基础资料管理、业务管理、合理配置、水质管理、用水合理性评价和信息发布六个子系统,其中业务管理和信息发布子系统采用B/S体系结构,其它子系统采用C/S体系结构,建立了基础资料库、GIS数据库、模型方法库和知识库。考虑到系统的庞大和复杂性,研究了集成式的设计开发方法,将GIS组件技术以及其它工具软件的功能与系统的设计开发有效集成,可以缩短开发周期。根据大连市城市供水处地下水管理的实际业务需求,设计开发了大连市城市地下水资源管理信息系统。系统以地下水取水许可和水资源费征收相关业务的办公自动化为主,实现了空间数据和属性数据的交互统计查询。最后对全文做了总结,并对有待于进一步研究的问题进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water is one of the basic resources of life. With the rapid urbanization, water shortage and water pollution have become the nationwide problems in China, and the situation is more serious in coastal cities in north area. So water resources sustainable utilization has become the fundamental approach to resolve the water crises. This dissertation focuses on the theories and applications of urban water resources sustainable utilization based on water-based system(WBS) theory and complex adaptive system(CAS) theory. The main task of this dissertation includes the following sections:(1) The applications of WBS theory and CAS theory in urban water resources complex system(UWRCS). Firstly, the connotation of urban water-based system(UWBS) is expounded, and the difference between UWBS and urban water resources system(UWRS) is the composition and structure. In traditional theory, urban water resources management system(UWRMS) is as a part of UWRS. But in UWBS theory, the system is regarded as the product under the joint action of nature and human, and UWRMS is as the product of human thought, so the UWRMS is the part of social-economy system. Then, based on the analysis of complex adaptive characteristics of UWRCS, Stimulaiton-Learning Adaptation-Reaction . Micro-model of human being, Stimulaiton-Reaction Micro-models of other biological and object are built. And on the basis of the three micro-model, the Extend EHO Model is built for UWRCS.(2) The health of UWBS consists of three parts: the system stability, the concordance with ecological system and social-economy system, and the healthy evolvement trend. Accordingly, the system stability, concordance and the evolvement rate are applied to evaluate the health status of UWBS. Index weight values have significant effect on the evaluation result, so the index compromise weights are emphasized with the reliability analysis. From the viewpoint of weight combination method, the more consistent the distribution of subjective weight and objective weight is, the more reliable the evaluation result is. The health evaluation results of Dalian UWBS and Yantai UWBS show that the health status are both development with fluctuation, and the key restricting factor is the excessive development of groundwater under the influence of hydrological cycle.(3) The UWRCS develops with S-type pattern, so the process can be described with Logistic(L) curve and Gompertz(G) curve. The analysis of differential equations shows that the growth-period and the golden-period of L curve, and the growth-period, the golden-period and the autumn-period of G curve are the sustainable development period. The analysis of difference equation of L curve shows that the development speed is the key factor for the sustainable water resources utilization. Lower speed is the obstacle of society development, and over high speed can lead to the unsustainable development. Furthermore, the process of the sustainable development can be described with combined S-type curve, which contains the start-period, growth-period and golden-period of L curve and G curve. The fitting with development trajectory of Dalian UWRCS and Yantai UWRCS shows the feasibility.(4) The applications of CAS theory in water resources allocation model. Firstly, according to the complex adaptive characteristics in urban water utilization, urban water resources allocation complex adaptive model(UWRACAM) with multi-hierarchies is built. Secondly, the objectives, behaviors, learning mechanisms, and communication mechanisms of different agents are analyzed. With UWRACAM, Global evolution characteristics are studied based on the analysis of intelligence and adaptability of micro-agents, so the model has more superiority in systematicness and integrity. From the viewpoint of CAS theory, the process of water resources optimal allocation is consistent with the process of learning adaptation of agents in different hierarchies. Finally, Dalian UWRACAM is built to finish the water resources allocation in 2010 and 2020. Agents of Dalian UWRACAM are divided into three hierarchies in vertical: system-grade, department-grad, and group-grade, and the allocation process is divided into two steps in horizontal: supply-demand balance process and allocation adaptation process.(5)Firstly, the framework of urban water resources management decision support system(UWRMDSS) is designed. According to the characteristics of urban water resources management, the system can be divided into six parts: basic information management, business management, water resources allocation management, water quality management, the rationality evaluation management of water use, and the information publishing management. Among the six subsystems, the business management and the information publishing management are designed with the architecture of client/server, and others are designed with the architecture of browser/server. Database design is important for the system design, and database of UWRMDSS is composed of four sub-database: basic information database, gis-database, model method database, and knowledge database. Then, Dalian groundwater resources management information system is developed. The main functions of the system are to manage the groundwater drawing permission and charge the groundwater fee. Furthermore, with the COMGIS development pattern, the interactive query between spatial data and attribute data are realized.Finally, a summary is given and some problems to be further studied are discussed.更多还原