【作者】 胡吉敏；

【导师】 陈守煜；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 水资源不仅是一种控制生态环境的基础自然资源和一切社会发展的物质基础,而且是一种战略性的经济资源,是一个国家综合国力的有机组成部分。随着人口的增加和社会经济的发展,人类在对水资源巨大需求的驱使下,不断地大规模开发利用水资源,加之水资源使用后巨量污水的直接排放,不但导致水资源数量急剧减少,而且水资源质量亦逐渐降低,严重地影响了水资源的水文循环机制和水资源的再生能力,致使诸多国家和地区出现了严重的水问题和水资源危机。对于水资源紧缺地区,水资源往往更是制约其可持续发展的关键因素。一个地区、一个流域的水资源承载状态如何,到底能够支撑多大的社会规模与经济规模,就成了制定区域可持续发展规划和目标的基础性尺度和指标。因此,水资源承载力的评价研究,具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文以大连市为研究对象,进行了沿海地区水资源承载力评价研究。主要研究内容与成果如下:(1)水资源承载力评价研究基本理论的分析与阐述。水资源承载力的研究还没有形成完整的理论体系,因此,鉴于本文研究的主要内容,仅分析与阐述了与本文研究内容最密切的一些基本概念与理论:首先分析了水资源承载力的定义、内涵、特性及其影响因素,之后阐述了水资源承载力与可持续发展的关系,最后对水资源-社会-经济-生态环境复合系统进行了分析。(2)大连市水资源及社会经济发展与生态环境状况。为了更鲜明地表达本文研究的核心内容,具体有实际的落实“载体”,本文选择以大连市为研究实例,在搜集相关资料的基础上,对大连市水资源、社会、经济、生态环境等状况进行了介绍与总结。(3)沿海地区水资源承载力评价指标体系研究。建立能够同时描述水资源承载力的大小和状态的评价指标体系,更符合水资源承载力评价指标体系设计的趋向。本文顺应这个趋向,建立的沿海地区水资源承载力评价指标体系包括两个分指标体系:一个用于描述水资源承载力的大小,由水资源支撑的最大经济规模和最大人口规模两个指标来表达;一个用于描述水资源承载力的状态,该指标体系又称为水资源承载力综合评价指标体系,共分为5层,最终由水资源承载力状态系数来表达,该系数又由承载力系数和和谐系数两个指标来反映。目前,水资源承载力综合评价指标体系建立主观性较大,指标的选取缺乏可遵循的操作过程,具体的评价指标体系亦尚无适宜的筛选框架和分析方法。Peter P.Chen提出的实体-关联模型,其精神是支持对具有一般化的层次进行详细说明,按其构造规则可以获得所研究问题的概念性的数据模型。本文依据实体-关联方法,对水资源承载力复合系统的子系统及子系统间关系的指标进行选取,提出了水资源承载力综合评价指标体系的概念框架。在该概念框架的指导下,结合研究区域的实际情况,选取了39项单项指标,建立了水资源承载力综合评价指标体系。本文采用的指标体系建立方法为水资源承载力复合系统指标的选取提供了一种可遵循的操作过程。所提出的水资源承载力综合评价指标体系概念框架对具体区域水资源承载力综合评价指标体系的指标选取具有一定的普适性。(4)指标标准值的研究。为了定量描述水资源承载力状态,本文将水资源承载力状态按极高、高、中、低、极低五个级别划分,设计和拟定了39项单项指标的五级分级标准值,为评价模型定量评价水资源承载力状态提供了标准。所提出的指标分级标准值,还可为一些综合评价模型在水资源承载力综合评价中的灵活运用提供基础数据或数据支持;而且这些指标标准值及其设计拟定的依据与思路,可为其它领域评价中指标标准值的拟定提供参考,有些指标标准值还可直接采用。(5)水资源承载力综合评价方法研究。水资源承载力综合评价模型与方法的选择要依据所建立的综合评价指标体系的特点而定。本文依据所建立的水资源承载力综合评价指标体系的层次结构特征及指标标准值的区间特性,将陈守煜提出的可变模糊集理论和模糊集分析单元系统理论引入到水资源承载力综合评价中,在给出相对比例函数模型的基础上,建立了多层可变模糊综合评价方法,该方法能够科学、合理地确定样本(评价区域)指标对各个级别指标标准值区间的相对隶属度,合理确定各个指标的权重,并且能够通过变化模型及其参数,最终合理地确定出样本(评价区域)的评价等级。该方法的提出,为水资源承载力评价研究工作提供了一种新的定量评价工具,同时亦是对可变模糊集理论的完善与发展。(6)大连市水资源承载力评价研究。应用本文建立的沿海地区水资源承载力评价指标体系、评价模型和提出的多层可变模糊综合评价方法,对大连市及其五个分区(包括金州以南地区、瓦房店市、普兰店市、庄河市、长海县)2005现状年和2010规划年两个水平年的水资源承载力进行了评价与分析,不但验证了所建立的评价指标体系、评价模型与方法的合理可行性,同时评价成果亦可为大连市可持续发展战略和实施计划的制定提供参考依据。(7)提高大连市水资源承载力途径的研究。本文在分析大连市拥有海冰资源优势的基础上,依据陆海水资源系统协同理论,以增加大连市水资源量为出发点,提出利用海冰淡化水形成的人工来水径流调节与大连市已有的以碧流河水库与英那河水库为核心的天然来水径流调节相协同,作为提高大连市水资源承载力的一种可行途径。最后对全文作出总结,并对有待进一步研究的问题进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resources is not only one of natural resources of controlling ecological environment,and is the substance base of all society development,but also is a strategic economic resource.It is also an important component of comprehensive national strength of a country.With socioeconomic development and population growth,under the drive of enormous water demant,people exploits and utilizes water resources on a large scale continually and discharges a vast of waste water without being disposed,which not only result in the amount of water resources decreasing rapidly and the quality of water resources falling gradually,but also affect hydrologic cycle and renewability of water resources.And these have brought forth severe water problems and water resources crisis to many countries and regions.Water even becomes a limiting factor that plays a critical role in substainable development in many water-shortage areas.How is the status of water resources carrying capacity in a region? And what levels of the economic development and social development can it sustain,which is the condition of water resources in this region? All these have been the yardwand of constituting sustainable development programming and goal.Therefore,it is being of great academic and practical significance to study on the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity.In this dissertation,taking Dalian as study region,we study on evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in coastal regions.The main study contents and conclusions are as follows:(1) Analysis and description of some fundamental conceptions and theories of evaluation of water resources carrying capacity.There has not been perfect theory system for the study on water resources carrying capacity.So in this dissertation only some close theories are analyzed and described:Definition,connotation,characteristics,and influence factors of water resources carrying capacity are analyzed;the relationship between water resources carrying capacity and sustainable development is described;and relationship between the sbusystems of water resources-society-economy-ecological environment compound system are analyzed.(2) The status of water resources,society and economy development,and ecological environment in Dalian.In order to practically embody the core content of this dissertation,we take Dalian as study region.By collecting the related data,the status of water resources, society and economy decelopment,and ecological environment in Dalian are introduced and summarized. (3) Study on evaluation indicators system for water resources carrying capacity in coastal regions.The evaluation indicators system eatablished can describe the water resources carrying capacity and its status,which is more suitable for the design trend of the evaluation indicators system for water resources carrying capacity.Conforming this trend,the evaluation indicators system for water resources carrying capacity in coastal regions is established, which comprises two sub-indicator-systems:One consists of two indicators,maximal economy scale and maximal population scale sustained by water resources,which reflect the size of water resources carrying capacity;Another also can be called comprehensive evaluation indicators system for water resources carrying capacity composed of five hierarchy cellular systems,which reflects the status of water resources carrying capacity by the indicator——status coefficient of water resources carrying capacity,and this coefficient is reflected by carrying capacity coefficient and harmoniousness coefficient.At present,it is of great subjectivity in establishing comprehensive evaluation indicators system for water resources carrying capacity.There have no operational steps to select indicators,and have no feasible selection framework and analysis method to establish evaluation indicators system. The spirit of Entity-Relationship modeling proposed by Peter P.Chen is that supports the specification of "is-a" generalization hierarchy.Based on the construction rules of Entity-Relationship model,the conceptional data model of the problem can be obtained.In this dissertation,based on the Entity-Relationship Appoach,the indicators on subsystems of water resources carrying capacity compound system and their relationships are selected,and then the conceptional framework of comprehensive evaluation indicators system for water resources carrying capacity is established.Combined with the actual conditions of study regions,39 indicators are selected,and the evaluation indicators system for water resources carrying capacity is established under guidance of this conceptional framework.This approach provides an operational steps that can be followed for the selection of indicators on water resources carrying capacity compound system.The conceptional framework has a certain universality to the selection of indicators that compose comprehensive evaluation indicators system of water resources carrying capacity.(4) Study on standard values of indicators.In order to quantitative describing the status of water resources carrying capacity,the status of water resources carrying capacity is classified as the highest level,high level,middle level,low level and the lowest level.And the standard values of 39 indicators of 5 levels are designed and given.These indicators standard values also can be as the basal data or supporting data for some comprehensive evaluation methods’ flexible application in comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity.And these warranties and train of thoughts can provide reference for the design of evaluating indicator standard values in other fields,and even some standard values of indicators can be used directly.(5) Study on method of comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity. Model and corresponding method of comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity should be selected according to the characteristics of evaluation indicators system. According to the hierarchical characteristics of the evaluation indicators system and interval characteristics of the indicator standard values,variable fuzzy sets theory and cellular systems theory of fuzzy analysis proposed by Chen Shouyu are introduced into comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity.The multi-hierarchy variable fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is proposed on basis of giving relative proportion function model,which can scientifically identify the relative membership degree between sample(study region) indicator and standard value interval of each level indicator,and which can reasonably determine the evaluation level of each sample by varying model and its parameters.This method provides a new quantitative evaluation tool for evaluation water resources carrying capacity,and also perfects and develops variable fuzzy sets theory.(6) Study on evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Dalian.The evaluation indicators system for water resources carrying capacity in coastal regions,evaluation models, and the multi-hierarchy variable fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are applied to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Dalian and its subdistricts(south of Jinzhou, Wafangdian,Pulandian,Zhuanghe,Changhai) in the actuality year of 2005 and the planning year of 2010.The case study proves that the evaluation indicators system and the models and methods are reasonable and feasible,and that results can provide reference for Dalian working out sustainable development strategy and implementation plan.(7) Study on ways to improve water resources carrying capacity of Dalian.On the basis of analysis of sea ice resources advantage of Dalian,and based on land-ocean synergistic principle in the development of water resources,taking increased water resources quantity of Dalian as starting point,a feasible way to improve water resources carrying capacity by synergy of the artificial runoff obtained by sea ice desalination regulation and the existing natural runoff regulation of Biliuhe reservoir and Yingnahe reservoir of Dalian,is put forward.Lastly,the conclusions are given and some problems to be further studied are discussed.更多还原