【作者】 杨文；

【导师】 李世平；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 当今世界可持续发展已经成为各国、各地区的共识。农业作为直接利用自然资源进行生产的基础性产业，在人与自然的物质交换中扮演者不可替代的重要角色，是人类对自然资源与生态环境影响和依赖最大的产业，其可持续发展是人类经济社会可持续发展的基础，对整个国家和地区的可持续发展，起着至关重要乃至决定性的作用。循环经济为农业可持续发展提供了理论范式。大力发展农业循环经济已逐渐成为当今世界农业发展的一股潮流和趋势，也是宁夏农业实现可持续发展的必然选择。本研究根据农业“与自然生态环境紧密相连、更易于和谐地纳入到自然生态系统的物质循环过程中”的特征，将循环经济引入经济落后与生态环境脆弱并存的宁夏的农业发展中，在对循环经济、农业循环经济理论阐述并建立评价指标体系对宁夏农业循环经济发展水平分析、评价的基础上，根据宁夏各地区自然环境、气候、资源及经济社会发展水平的不同，提出各具特色的农业循环经济发展模式，并对之进行结构、功能和效益分析，进而提出促进宁夏农业循环经济发展的具体措施。最终目的在于使宁夏农业发展遵循生态学规律，合理有效地利用农业资源和环境容量，促进农业生产资源的重复循环利用，推动农业经济系统与自然生态系统和谐统一，实现宁夏农业可持续发展。全文共分七章。第一章导论。对论文的研究背景、目的和意义、国内外研究动态进行了阐述，提出了论文研究的思路和方法，并对可能创新之处作了说明。第二章循环经济与农业循环经济理论研究。本章是本文研究的逻辑起点。对循环经济、农业循环经济的理论基础、内涵、实施原则和运行模式、主要特征、发展层次、与传统农业经济的区别等基本内容进行理论探讨和阐述，形成研究工作重要的理论基础。第三章宁夏农业发展现状与发展农业循环经济的战略分析。采用SWOT分析法对宁夏农业发展现状进行识别，定性分析宁夏发展农业循环经济的战略优势、劣势、机遇和威胁。结果表明：宁夏发展农业循环经济具有地理区位优势、农业资源优势、农产品质量品质优势和区域特色农业优势等四大优势；劣势是经济实力和科技力量较弱、生态环境较为脆弱、水资源严重短缺、科学管理基础薄弱；宁夏发展农业循环经济的机遇是，传统农业中的循环思想和实践为宁夏发展农业循环经济奠定了良好的基础，农业的自然属性使农业循环经济模式具有天然的适应性，党中央、国务院对“三农”问题的高度重视，以及我国当前经济发展所处历史阶段的特点，为宁夏农业循环经济的发展提供了前所未有的机遇：宁夏发展农业循环经济的威胁是，农业循环经济存在外部性与市场机制失灵问题，缺乏利益驱动机制，存在成本、价格障碍和认识障碍，法律法规政策及规划、标准建设比较滞后，农业投入不足、农村金融发展滞后。对宁夏社会经济发展所处的阶段定量化界定表明，宁夏目前处于工业化中期的偏前阶段；运用克拉森分类方法，对宁夏在全国的经济发展水平定位定量研究表明，宁夏在全国范围内属于处于扩张过程中的欠发达区。从而对宁夏农业循环经济发展的社会经济现实背景做出了比较完整的分析。第四章宁夏农业循环经济发展水平评价。提出农业循环经济评价指标体系的设计思路、原则和构建方法，建立了宁夏农业循环经济发展水平评价指标体系，对宁夏农业循环经济发展水平进行定量评价，对障碍因素进行定量分析。结果表明：1998～2007年10年间宁夏农业循环经济发展综合水平整体呈上升趋势，2007年农业循环经济发展综合评价值是1998年的1.5倍，年均增长速度为4.61％。从各分类评价指标的变化情况来看，经济与社会发展、资源循环利用和人口系统3类指标的评价值均高于1998年的水平，呈逐年递增的趋势。环境安全指标呈现出先下降后上升的趋势，从2006年起评价值高于1998年的水平。而资源减量投入指标的评价值呈现出先下降后平稳的趋势，所有评价值均低于1998年的水平，2007年的评价值是1998年的58％。说明1998年至2007年间，宁夏农业循环经济发展中经济社会因素和资源循环利用因素对农业循环经济的推动作用明显，而资源减量投入和环境安全成为制约宁夏农业循环经济发展的重要因素。障碍度分析表明，2007年宁夏农业循环经济发展的障碍因素主要集中于资源减量投入和环境安全方面，与前面的分析正好吻合。第五章宁夏农业循环经济发展模式构建。提出宁夏农业循环经济发展模式的构建思路、构建内容、构建方法与步骤。运用统计软件SPSS对宁夏22个县(市、区、开发区)进行聚类分析，分为山地农业区、旱作农业区、沙化地农业区、黄河水灌溉农业区和盐碱地农业区5大分区。在此基础上，根据各分区自然、气候、环境、经济社会发展水平及农业产业结构的差异，构建出经济作物综合开发模式、“种植业—沼气—畜牧业”模式、“温棚—畜舍—沼气”三位一体模式、稻田养殖立体模式、“粮—薯—菌—畜—沼”模式、荒漠牧业和生态沙产业模式及“粮—菜—瓜果—牧”模式等宁夏应当重点推广的农业循环经济具体模式。第六章宁夏农业循环经济模式试验定量分析。以“温棚—畜舍—沼气”三位一体模式为例，对构建的模式进行结构分析、功能分析和综合效益预分析，验证所拟方案的合理性及可行性。通过温室内小气候测量、土壤肥力测定、猪生长及饲料、排泄物调查、沼气量及蔬菜产量和营养测定，结果表明：与露天猪舍相比，生态大棚中的猪生长快而粮食饲料消耗少；与户用沼气池相比，生态大棚中的沼气池可运转更长天数，生产更多沼气，尤其是在冬季；与普通大棚蔬菜相比，生态大棚中的黄瓜和番茄不仅产量显著提高，而且其维生素C含量也增加了。结构分析表明，这是一种形式上三位一体(沼气池、畜舍、生态大棚)，内容上五结合(种植、养殖、生态、环保和能源综合利用相结合)的新型生产模式。家畜的粪尿及时为沼气池填料，沼气池随时提供沼气、沼渣和沼液，沼气用于生活能源和为温室增温，沼渣和沼液为蔬菜提供优质肥料，沼气池上面建畜舍为家畜保温退湿，家畜呼出的二氧化碳为蔬菜光合作用提供物质条件，蔬菜光合作用产生的氧气又清新了畜舍内的空气。功能分析表明，在由种菜、养猪和沼气生产连接而成的良性循环系统中，各种营养物质、生物能和太阳能都得到了有效利用。全系统辅助能产投比为0.51：1；种植亚系统能量投入的产投比为6.30：1，光能利用率为2.15％；饲养亚系统的能量产投比为0.55：1；沼气亚系统能量产投比为0.42：1。综合效益分析表明，农业循环经济模式具有良好的经济效益、生态效益和社会效益。第七章宁夏农业循环经济实施途径和保障措施。从加大宣传力度、加强领导、建立政策体系、健全法律法规、完善运行机制、促进产业结构调整、强化科技支撑、加大资金投入、加强载体培植力度、鼓励社会公众广泛参与、完善农业循环经济社会化服务体系、加强国际合作等方面有针对性地提出了宁夏农业循环经济发展的实施途径和保障措施，以保证农业循环经济系统能够按预期目标发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 The world sustainable development has been a consensus to all countries and areas.Agriculture, as the infrastructural industry directly using natural resources to produce, playsan indispensable role in human and nature’s material communication, and it is the biggestindustry that people influence and rely on natural resources and eco-environment, whosesustainable development, the foundation of human’s economic social sustainable development,plays a very important and decisive role in the whole country and area’s sustainabledevelopment. Circular economy supplies a theoretical model to agricultural sustainabledevelopment. To develop agricultural circular economy is gradually becoming a trend of thepresent world agricultural development, and also it is the inevitable choice for agriculturalsustainable development in Ningxia.Based on the characteristic that "agriculture is connected tightly with naturaleco-environment and is apt to incorporate into the material circular process harmoniously,"the study introduces circular economy into the undeveloped and weakly eco-environmentalagricultural development in Ningxia. By expounding the theories of circular economy andagricultural circular economy, setting up the frame of evaluation target system to analyze andevaluate the agricultural development level in Ningxia, according to the difference of thenatural environment, climate, resources and the economic social development level of everyregion in Ningxia, and then put forward various mode of agricultural circular economicdevelopment, and analyze the structure, function and benefit of the mode of agriculturalcircular economic development, further bring forward the specific measures of promoting theagricultural circular economic development in Ningxia. The goal is to let agriculturaldevelopment follow the law of ecology, reasonably and effectively use agricultural resourcesand environment capacity, promote circular utilization of agricultural productive resources,advance the harmonious union of agricultural economic system and natural ecological system,to achieve the agricultural sustainable development in Ningxia.This paper is divided into seven chapters.Chapter One: introduction. The author expounds the background of the project-selection,aim and importance of the study as well as the research methods, logical frame, innovativepoint and the present research situation both in home and abroad, and etc. Chapter Two: studies of the theory of circular economy and agricultural circulareconomy. This chapter is the logical starting point of the study. It gives a brief discussion anddescription of the theoretical basis, connotation, implement principle, operation mode, mainfeatures and development level of circular economy and agricultural circular economy, andthe difference between agricultural circular economy and traditional agricultural economy, allof which become the important theoretical foundation of the study.Chapter Three: strategic analysis of the present situation of agricultural development anddeveloping the agricultural economy. Adopting SWOT analyzing method to identify thepresent situation of agricultural development in Ningxia, it gives a qualitative analysis on theadvantages, disadvantages, opportunities and threats for Ningxia to develop the agriculturalcircular economic strategy. The result shows that Ningxia possesses four advantages ofgeography, agricultural resources, agricultural products’ quality and agriculture with regionalcharacteristics to develop agricultural circular economy; the disadvantages are the weakeconomic strength and scientific power, the rather weak eco-environment, seriously shortenedwater resource and frail scientific management basis; the opportunities lie in a solid groundthat the circular thought and practice of traditional agriculture prepared for Ningxia to developthe agricultural circular economy, the intrinsic adaptability the natural properties ofagriculture make the mode of agricultural circular economy to possess, great attention to theproblem of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" that Party Central Committee and StateCouncil pay and the characteristics of the historical stage that our nation’s current economydevelops at, all of which provide unprecedented opportunities for agricultural circulareconomic development; and the threats include the problem of external and failed marketmechanism of agricultural circular economy, the lack of profit driving mechanism, theobstacle of cost, price and cognition, lagged laws and regulations, policies and plans as wellas criteria establishment, insufficient agricultural investment and the backward rural financialdevelopment. The quantitative defining of the stage that Ningxia social economicdevelopment is at shows that Ningxia is at the pre-stage of the middle-term industrialization;the quantitative study by using Klassen Classification to rank Ningxia in the whole country’seconomic development level shows that Ningxia in the rage of the whole country belongs tothe less developed region in the expanding process; therefore, it makes a quite completeanalysis of the social economic background of agricultural circular economic development inNingxia.Chapter Four: evaluation of agricultural circular economic development in Ningxia. Itraises the design idea, principle and construction method of the evaluation target system ofagricultural circular economy, gives a quantitative evaluation of agricultural circular economic development level in Ningxia and makes a quantitative analysis of the obstaclefactors. The result shows: from 1998 to 2007, agricultural circular economic developmentcomprehensive level in Ningxia goes up in this decade; agricultural circular economicdevelopment comprehensive evaluation value of 2007 is 1.5 times as high as that of 1998, andit reached the speed of rise to 4.61% per year. From the evaluation guideline we can see thatthe economy and social development, resource circular utilization and population system ishigher than the year 1998, and it’s increasing. The guideline of environment safety present tobe first goes down and then climbing up, from 2006, the value is higher than 1998. Resourcedecreasing investment target goes down and then becomes steady, all the evaluate value islower than 1998. The evaluate value of 2007 is 58% of 1998. It shows that from 1998 to 2007,economy and social development and resource circular utilization promoted obviously theagricultural circular economic development in Ningxia, but resources decreasing investmentand environment safety became central obstacle factors. The impediment analysis shows thatthe main obstacle of the agricultural circular economic development in Ningxia in 2007mainly centralized in resources decreasing investment and environment safety, whichcoincidence with the analysis above.Chapter Five: construction of the mode of agricultural circular economic development inNingxia. It proposes the construction idea, content, methods and procedure of the mode ofagricultural circular economic development in Ningxia. To do the clustering analysis by usingthe SPSS analysis software, Ningxia was devised into five different part: the country farm belt,the dry framing region, the sand converting farm region, the yellow river irrigating region andthe salt-alkali farm land region. Based on this, according to the difference of nature, climate,environment, economic social development and agricultural productive structure of differentregions in Ningxia, it constructs economic industrial crop comprehensive exploitive mode,"crop farming-marsh gas-animal husbandry" mode, "hothouse-shed-marsh gas" trinity mode,rice-field cultivation stereoscopic mode, "grain-potato-bacterium-livestock-marsh gas"mode, desert animal and eco-sands industrial mode and "grain-vegetable-fruit-herd"mode, and etc, which should be extended chiefly in Ningxia.Chapter Six: quantitative analysis of the experiment of the mode of agricultural circulareconomic development in Ningxia. Taking the "hothouse-shed-marsh gas" trinity mode forexample, it gives a structural and functional analysis and comprehensive benefits pre-analysisof the constructed modes and tests the reasonability and feasibility of the draft plan. Bymeasuring the micro-climate, soil fertility, pigs’ growth and feed, excrement, quantity ofmarsh gas and the output and nutrition of vegetable, it shows: compared with the open-airpigpen, the pigs in eco-house grow fast and consume less feed; compared with the household marsh gas pond, the marsh gas pond in eco-house can operate more days and produce moremarsh gas, especially in winter; compared with the vegetable in ordinary house, thecucumbers and tomatoes in eco-house not only have a obvious increase in output, but alsovitamin content. The structural analysis shows that this is a new productive mode with trinity(marsh gas pond, shed, eco-house) in form and five-combination (planting, cultivation,ecology, environmental protection and energy comprehensive utilization combine) in content.Livestock’s excrement and urine fill substance in time in the marsh gas pond which offersmarsh gas, marsh residue and marsh liquid at any time: marsh gas is used for domestic energyand raising the temperature of the hothouse, while marsh residue and marsh liquid offerfertilizer with good quality to vegetable. The shed may be built on marsh gas pond, whichkeep livestock warm and allay the dampness. The carbon dioxide that livestock breathe outprovides the material condition for vegetable’s photosynthesis, and the oxygen produced byvegetable’s photosynthesis then refreshes the shed. The functional analysis shows that in thebeneficial circular eco-system established through growing vegetable, feeding pigs andproducing marsh gas, all kinds of nutrients, bio-energy and solar energy are put into effectiveuse. The assistant power produce and input ratio is 0.51:1 ; the power produce and input ratioof planting inferior system is 6.30:1, the utilization of light power utilization is 2.15%; thepower produce and input ratio of breeding sub system is 0.55:1; the power produce and inputratio of methane sub system is 0.42:1.The comprehensive benefits analysis shows thatagricultural circular economic mode has sound economic, ecological and social benefits.Chapter Seven: enforcement solution and security measures of the mode of agriculturalcircular economic development in Ningxia. That strengthening publicity force, enhancingleadership, establishing political system, improving laws and regulations, consummating thecirculate mechanism, promoting industrial structure adjustment, consolidating scientificsupport, increasing fund investment, strengthen carrier cultivation force, encouraging thesocial public’s extensive participation, perfecting the socialized service system of agriculturalcircular economy and enhancing international cooperation, can ensure agricultural circulareconomic system develop according to the expected goal.更多还原