环境规制与国际贸易的实证研究

【作者】 陆菁；

【导师】 金祥荣；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 政治经济学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 本文以环境规制与国际贸易为主题,较为深入地阐释了环境规制的贸易效应及其影响机理,并在对世界贸易中污染密集型产品贸易模式与流向进行分析的基础上,对环境规制与双边贸易流的关系从全球层面与中国层面分别进行了实证研究,对“污染天堂假说”与“污染产业转移假说”进行了验证,为建立和健全我国在国际贸易中的环境规制提供了理论支持与实证依据。文章首先对环境规制的贸易效应进行了理论分析。通过对环境规制进行关税量化,运用局部均衡分析方法,分别从小国模型、大国模型两个层面分析了环境规制对进口国贸易福利的影响效应;在此基础上,文章着重拓展了环境规制的两国模型和动态模型。在两国模型中,环境规制的设置对进口国与出口国贸易福利的影响是不确定的,一方面环境规制可以提供明确的产品品质信号,使消费者避免具有潜在危害的产品消费,并可相应扩大安全产品消费,从而福利上升,另一方面生产者则因环境成本内化可能引致成本上升,从而福利受损。在环境规制的动态模型中,出口国企业在进口国的环境规制的“倒逼”下,存在着提升生产技术和产品品质的动力,在引入政府战略性补贴激励因子后,企业会加快技术进步与产业升级以适应进口国环境规制的要求。在理论研究的基础上,文章对世界贸易中污染密集型产品的贸易模式和流向进行了深入分析,提出“污染产业转移假说悖论”。本文通过对国际贸易中污染密集型产品类别的界定,利用联合国UNCTAD贸易数据库中53个SITC三位码产业1980-2003年24年间一百多万进出口贸易数据,测算了国际贸易中污染密集型产品的贸易份额、出进口比率、贸易竞争优势和显示性比较优势等多项指标;并对不同经济发展程度的国家或集团(如欧盟15国、东盟等)1980-2003年间11类污染密集型产品国际贸易流的贸易模式、地理分布、竞争力和比较优势的变化转移趋势进行了比较分析,尤其对“污染产业转移假说”成立与否进行了考察。研究表明“污染产业转移假说”仅在资源密集型、劳动密集型产业贸易中成立,而在资本-技术密集型产业的贸易则存在着“污染产业转移假说悖论”。因为环境规制的差异导致发展中国家始终保持在资源密集型、劳动密集型产业(如石油加工业、有色金属冶炼及压延业等)贸易中的比较优势,而发达国家充裕的资本和较高的技术构成维持了其在资本—技术密集型污染产业(如医药制造业、造纸和化工业等)贸易中的比较优势,甚至发生由比较优势的逆向转移。在环境规制与双边贸易流关系的实证研究部分,文章分别从全球视角与中国层面检测了环境规制对不同类型污染密集型产业贸易的影响。实证模型运用了一个经拓展后的包含了环境规制与贸易流变量的引力模型。在基于全球视角的实证分析中,采用了1990-1999年全球51个样本国家污染密集型产业双边贸易流的面板数据与环境规制指数及环境合作指数进行了多元多重线性回归。研究表明:环境规制对总的污染密集型产品贸易存在显著正相关,但对可迁移的污染密集型产业贸易的影响较为复杂。当进口国国内环境规制趋于严格时,对于总的污染密集型产品进口需求增加,从而引致贸易量扩大。对于可迁移的污染密集型产业来说,进口国的环境规制趋于严格将会抬高此类产业国际投资的门槛与成本,从而减少可迁移污染密集型产业的投资与贸易。当出口国的环境规制趋于严格时,使得该类产业厂商将产业转向环境规制较为宽松的国家和地区,从而出现投资促进贸易的效应,造成可迁移污染密集型产业贸易流上升(这从贸易途径层面部分证明了“污染产业转移假说”的存在)。此外,研究还发现,经过国际多边环境合作的实践,各国积极参与全球环境保护的努力在贸易领域已经体现出其经济效应,也即进口国环境合作努力的提升将减少世界污染密集型产业的贸易流。在基于中国层面的实证分析中,运用修正后的引力模型对中国与50个贸易伙伴国/地区的不同类别污染密集型产品的双边贸易流及单边贸易流的面板数据,分别进行了多元多重线性回归。研究表明,中国国内的环境规制对中国的进出口贸易基本没有起到促进或者阻碍作用,即中国尚未构建起积极有效的环境规制体系;但中国政府参与国际多边环境合作努力对中国污染密集型产业的贸易流存在一定的抑制作用。研究还发现国际环境规制对中国对外贸易存在一定影响,即当贸易伙伴国环境规制趋于严格时,对来自中国的污染密集型产品进口需求增加,而中国进口的可迁移污染密集型产品却会下降。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper reviews arguments and evidence on the impact of globalization on the environment, the subject is Environmental Regulations and the International Trades, I analyze the trade effects of environmental regulations and their effective mechanisms on the base of studying the trade patterns and directions of pollution—intensive products, and examine the Pollution Haven Hypothesis and Dirty Industry Migration Hypothesis on evidence of environmental regulations and bilateral trade flows from the global level and Chinese levels respectively. My conclusions could provide the theoretical substantial evidences for design the set of environmental regulations in China.This dissertation is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is an introduction; the second one is a survey of the theories and policies of trade and Environment. Chapter three is the theoretical analysis. First, I study the welfare effects of environmental regulations to the import country with models of partial equilibrium analysis both in small-country and large-country. Then I extend the cross section and dynamic models of trade effects of environmental regulations. In the two-country model, it is uncertainty that the warfare effects of environmental regulations of import country and export country. On the one hand, those environmental regulations could provide exact information of the quality, welfare of consumers would raise by keeping them from the potential harm, on the other hand the producer are suffered by innerlization of environment cost. While in my dynamic model of environmental regulations, the export firm will be "forced" to improve and upgrade by those environmental regulations of import country. There are inner innovations for the export firm to improve the technology and qualities after introducing the government strategy subsides. They would expedite the upgrade of technology in order to achieve the demand of environmental regulations in import country.The interaction between trade flows and environmental regulations has become quite a topical issue recently. There is a common belief that by applying more lenient environmental regulations, countries tend to reduce production cost of their manufacturers and thus improve their ability to export. In chapter 4, I examine the Dirty Industry Migration Hypothesis on evidence of trade pattern and trade flow of 11 kinds of pollution-intensive industries, and prove the Dirty Industry Migration Hypothesis paradox. After classifying the pollution-intensive industries again by taking the rank of pollution abatement costs both in US and China into consideration, I calculate the market share , export import ratio, TSE and Revealed Comparative Advantage Index(RCA) of these 53 SITC 3-digist level manufacturing industries from 1980 to 2003 by over 1 million dates in UNCTAD database. Comparing the change indexes, we can find that Dirty Industry Migration Hypothesis only effective in those resource-intensive and labor-intensive industries but inefficacy in those capital and techno-intensive industries. This is an obverse paradox of Dirty Industry Migration Hypothesis. The North-South regulatory gap make developing countries keeping advantages in resource-intensive and labor-intensive industries ( etc. Petroleum and coal products、Non-ferrous metals), while the abundance of capital and higher technology make developed country more competitive in capital and techno-intensive pollution industries (etc. Medicinal and pharmaceutical products, Paper and allied products and Chemicals and allied products), the RCA and TSE index are getting even higher than before.In Chapter 5, I study how environmental regulations affect the bilateral trade flows from both global and Chinese perspective. Demonstration model is an extended the gravity model which includes environmental regulations index, environmental cooperation index and trade flows, the estimation applied multidimensional multiple linear regression. In the examination of global perspective, the panel data of 51 sample countries are from 1990 to 1999 including 3 kinds of bilateral trade flows, such as total manufactures, pollution-intensive industries and footloose industries (non-resource intensive industries). Panel estimation of a gravity model of bilateral trade on the same data set reveals that, on average ,polluting industries have higher barriers-to-trade cost, the conclusion of this evidences is that the relationship between stricter environmental regulations and pollution-intensive products becomes statistical significant, but more complex with footloose pollution-intensive industries. While the domestic environmental regulations of import country became stricter, the import demand of total pollution-intensive products increased accordingly. As for those footloose pollution-intensive industries, the environmental regulations import of country became stricter will rise the FDI barriers of these industries, and decrease investments and trade in footloose pollution-intensive industries。while the environmental regulations in export country became stricter, producer will invest to the other countries with loose regulations, which is the FDI effects of trade, and the trade flows of footloose industries increase accordingly. My results show that the practice of multinational environment cooperation and the long-standing efforts of protect global environment had been proved statistical significant effect international trade flow, while multinational environment cooperation of import countries will decrease the international trade flow of pollution-intensive industries。The applied model is a revised gravity model in the evidence with panel data form the Chine perspective, I examine the relationships between environmental regulations index, environmental cooperation index and 3 kinds of bilateral trade flows in China and her 50 trade partner countries. I find that the domestic environmental regulations of China has done nothing to the bilateral trade flows, which means we haven’t constructed the effective environmental regulations system yet; but the efforts of Government in multinational environment cooperation has limited the trade flow of pollution—intensive industries. another conclusion is that international environmental regulations are statistical in significant to China foreign trade, while it getting stricter import demand of pollution—intensive products from China will raise and the import of footloose industries in China will drop.We have shown in the paper that environmental regulations are indeed an important variable in the determination of trade flows. So far, the gravity studies did not provide conclusive results on the existence of pollution haven hypothesis更多还原