中国电力交易制度构建研究

【作者】 丁伟斌；

【导师】 杨义群；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 技术经济与管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 目前我国正在大力推进电力体制改革,以进一步适应市场经济深入发展的要求。如何构建科学合理的电力交易制度是我国电力体制改革的核心问题,而目前我国尚未建立真正意义上的电力交易制度,因此研究构建适合我国国情的电力交易制度具有重大的理论价值和现实意义。本研究试图从内涵、动力与机制设计三个递进的视角对中国电力交易制度构建进行系统分析,具体研究层次及内容如下:首先,是一个我国电力体制改革状况的概述,作为后继研究的一个基础,对本研究所涉及的相关研究对象、主体、关键概念进行科学和规范化的界定,尤其是关于电力体制改革、电力交易制度的概念与内容的阐述。尝试对电力体制改革进程下的我国电力交易制度构建的内涵进行经济学范式分析。其次,在初步解决了我国电力交易制度构建的内涵问题后,再从解除管制和电力竞争两个方面对电力交易制度构建的动力进行分析,针对我国电力交易制度构建的效率进行系统的论述。最后,在上述基础上对电力体制改革进程下的我国电力交易制度构建的制度设计进行规范性(Normative)分析,借助类似于路线图(Road Map)的分析范式,提出构建一个符合我国国情的电力交易制度的原则与构想。最后针对若干我国电力交易制度中全局性、战略性和前瞻性的关键问题进行进一步阐述。全文共有九章,分为三部分:第一部分包括第1、2、3章,主要是研究的概述性部分;第二部分包括第4、5、6、7、8章:第4章主要对我国电力交易制度构建的内涵进行分析,第5、6章是对我国电力交易制度构建的动力进行分析,第7、8章是对我国电力交易制度进行制度设计;第三部分为第9章,主要是研究的总结、政策建议和展望。本文主要创新点和研究结论可归纳为内涵、动力与机制设计三个方面:关于电力交易制度构建的内涵方面:(1)本研究从系统经济学的分析范式出发,结合对我国电力体制改革和电力交易制度构建的理解,创新性地提出我国电力体制改革的四个发展元:社会元(S)、经济元(E)、环境元(H)、政治元(P),并指出电力交易制度构建在发展内涵上的双重兼容性,建立了对我国电力交易制度构建内涵的认识框架。基于电力发展目标的多元性,本研究建立一个考虑CO2排放约束的整合资源规划模型,来分析环保要求会对电力供给规划产生的影响。将电力交易制度构建与电力体制改革制度化关联的历时结构的演进机制理解为一种重叠嵌入,并分为过渡性嵌入和移植性嵌入两种方式分别进行解释,极为形象地揭示了本研究所要讨论的电力体制改革进程下我国电力交易制度构建的内涵;同时论证了我国电力交易制度构建会形成一个新的决策集。新的决策集形成的决策或者某种变异性决策,单独看并不合算,但如果一种具体制度以外已经有了一种互补性制度,或者参数发生了变化,那么两个制度之间的相互支持会使得新决策获得强大的推力。关于电力交易制度构建的动力方面:(2)将改革红利的共同诉求的理论引入对我国电力体制改革和电力交易制度构建的动力分析当中,论证我国电力体制改革动力可以归结为:各主体获得改革红利仍然是电力改革的主要动力;各主体对改革的激励构成电力改革的推动力;日益对外开放的中国对于电力改革产生外部压力;改革的法制化成为电力改革的内在张力。将电力交易制度改革理解为一种“共有信念的自我维系系统”。指出电力交易制度不是凝固的,不是一成不变的,它会随着我国电力工业的发展、电力市场的发展和消费者要求的提高,进行创新性的适应和构建。因此多样性的电力交易制度均衡也提供了相互学习、不断试验的机会和机遇等,从而保证了电力交易制度的构建保持创新能力。(3)利用价值链理论、小生境理论进行产业层面的电力交易制度构建的动力分析,丰富了论证的理论深度和完整性。利用Panzar-Rosse模型对我国电力行业的竞争态势进行实证分析,Panzar-Rosse模型作为一种非结构性方法,无需事先知道每个企业在市场上的占有率就可以定量评价市场结构与竞争程度的高低。利用Translog生产函数,结合浙江样本数据,对我国配售电业的最小有效规模进行了分析。(4)由于中国实际上并不存在真正的电力交易价格,因此从定价效率的角度论述我国电力制度构建的动力存在一定的难度,传统的文献分析中,大多是一种定性的概括论述。本研究的创新之处在于:避开具体价格数据的束缚,利用峰谷定价模型,通过构建四种市场竞争结构模型进行电力定价效率的博弈均衡分析,结论是:如果我国电力行业的售电侧市场不开放,仅仅开放发电侧市场,并不会有定价效率的提升和社会福利的提高,所以发电侧的开放能带来的改革红利甚少,这与我国的实际情况符合。如果逐步开放售电侧市场,随着市场竞争程度的不断增加,那么定价效率和社会福利水平都会有明显的改善,从而在理论上阐明了电力交易制度构建的动力源泉。关于电力交易制度的机制方面:(5)我国电力交易制度的构建一定是一个渐进的、分阶段推进的进程。我国电力交易制度构建的阶段性方案可以是:着力进行区域性与全国性电力市场体系的初步构建,全面开放发、输、配电业,允许电力代输以及直供电力等交易模式。在由原有国家电力公司继续承担电力最后供应义务和调度义务的前提下,开放民营公司进入各类电力业务经营。在阶段性目标得以实现的基础上,再进一步推进市场化和自由竞争的程度,最终将区域性和全国性的电力市场垂直分割为发电、输电、配电以及售电业四种电力企业,并采取类似电力池的交易模式或双向合约交易模式,成立集中交易的电力交易所PX及配以电力的场外交易,成立独立系统调度制度(ISO)。(6)输电体制改革(假定已经将售电环节分离),应在已经基本完成的我国输电网络的功能性分割的基础上,继续进行结构性分割,可以要求电网公司在成立控股公司的安排下,将其业务作结构性的分割,分别成立输电与配电公司,其中输电公司负责电力调度与输电网络的规划、运转与维护,并且仍需建立公平的调度机制,而其它部门则回归市场竞争。(7)国家三级电力市场是电力交易制度构建的重要目标之一,但是一直以来,没有文献系统地阐述电力市场的分层机理以及需要区域性电力市场作为一个多层次电力市场体系基石的理论问题。本研究利用古诺二期博弈模型的推理来分析形成不同层次电力市场的内涵,这就从理论上阐明了电力市场的分层机理以及需要区域性电力市场作为一个多层次电力市场体系基石的理论问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 In conformity with the development of the market economy, China is promoting the electric power institutional reform. The core problem is how to construct the reasonable electric power trading system. As the state has not the actual trading system, the study on the suitable system is of significance and important theory value.The research tries a systematic analysis on the Chinese electric power trading system from connotation, driving force and mechanism design three aspects, and specified as the following:Firstly, the paper draws a summary of the Chinese electric power institutional reform situation, as a basis of later study. The paper gives scientific and normalized definitions on some subjects, key concepts, especially on the institutional reform, electric power trading system. The paper tries economics analysis on the connotation of the construction of the Chinese electric power trading system during the course of the Chinese electric power institutional reform. Secondly, after resolving the connotation of the Chinese electric power trading system construction, the paper analyzes the driving force of the Chinese electric power trading system construction from deregulation and electric power competition two aspects. At last, the paper has normative analysis on the system design of the Chinese electric power trading system during the course of the Chinese electric power institutional reform, proposing the principles and ideals of the electric power trading system according with our national condition by the tools similar to the Road Map method. Lastly, the paper describes further the key questions about the Chinese electric power trading system. These questions have a common characteristic, just be with certain research looking into the distance in the overall situation, strategy and certain ex-pose in mind.The whole article includes nine chapters and can be divided into three parts. The first part includes No.1, No.2 and No.3 chapters, which is mainly some preparative works for later research. The second part includes No.4, No.5, No.6, No7 and No.8 chapters, which are the analysis on the connotation, driving force and mechanism designed of the Chinese electric power trading institution. The third part, No. 9 chapter, is the summary, corresponding policy suggestions and outlook. The main innovations and conclusions includes connotation, driving force and mechanism design.Connotation of the construction of the electric power trading system:(1) Using the system economics analysis and combining the understanding of the Chinese electric power institutional reform and the electric power trading system, the paper proposes the four development elements in the Chinese electric power institutional reform: Society(S), Economy (E), Environment (H) and Politics (P), then points out "double-compatibility" in the Chinese electric power trading system on developing connotation and forms the cognition frame to the Chinese electric power trading system. The structural evolution mechanism of systematic correlation between the electric power trading system structures and the electric power institutional reform must be understood as a kind of the implantation overlapping, which is divided into the transition implantation and transplanting implantation. It reveals the connotation of the construction of the electric power trading system, and proves that the construction of the Chinese electric power trading system may form a new decision-making collection. The decision-making or some special deviancy may be unreasonable, if seeing alone, but the parameter changes or there is another complementary system, then the support between these two systems may give strong propulsion to the new decision.Driving force of the electric power trading system:(2) Introducing the theory of the reforming bonus into the driving force analysis, the paper proves that the driving force of the Chinese electric power institutional reform can be summared up as: the reform bonus acquired by every subject is the main force of the Chinese electric power institutional reform; the excitation made by every subject forms the motive force of the Chinese electric power institutional reform; the pressure from the opening-up china on the Chinese electric power institutional reform makes necessary; the legalization of reform becomes the inherent tension of the Chinese electric power institutional reform. The electric power trading system reform is understood that one kind of "common belief holds together system ", pointing out electric power trading system is not stationary and changeless. It will make new adoption and construction, with development of electric power industry, electric power marketplace and consumer’s higher demand. The balance of the diversity electric power trading system provides the chance and opportunity studying mutually. Therefore, it ensures an ability to innovate on the construction of the electric power trading system.(3) Fully utilizing some analysis scopes, such as the value chain theory, the Niche Market theory and SCP method, the paper carries out the driving force analysis on the electric power trading system in industry level. These appear first in some early documents, improving the understanding of the industry characteristic and influence of the electric power trading system, and enriching theory depth and completeness. The paper uses the Panzar-Rosse model to analyze competition situation of the Chinese electric power industry. Although people have realized that the Chinese electric power industry market structure may be of the monopoly pattern, the Panzar-Rosse model is one kind of Non-parameter structure method, no needs to know every enterprise occupation ratio on the marketplace, which can appraise market structure and the degree of the competition.(4) As the real electric power price does not exist in China, it is difficult to discuss the driving force of the Chinese electric power institution reform from pricing efficiency. The tradition documents analysis is mostly normative. The innovation of the paper is in its abandonment of the concrete data originally, using the peak and off-peak pricing model, analyze the game equilibrium that the four kinds market competition structural model. The conclusion is: there will be no pricing efficiency raise and social welfare enhancement with only the power generation market open and selling market not open to the outside world. The bonus brought with the only opening generation market is so small, and this is in conformity with our nation situation. With the market competitions increasing, from monopoly competition to complete competition, the pricing efficiency will sustain its uphill tendency and social welfare will improve as well, if we open the selling market step by step. Thus it expounds the driving sources of electric power trading system.Mechanism of the electric power trading system:(5) The Chinese electric power trading system is a course advancing gradually, moving forward by stages. The stage scheme that the Chinese electric power trading system structure may be: the first step is to make effort to carry out the regional and national electric power market system, and the fully opening to the outside world all round, such as generating, transmitting and distributing trading patterns, and providing straightly electric power, allowing electric power replace. On the premise of the final supplying duty and the dispatching duty bearded by the State Power Corporation, we open the electric power business to the private-owned companies. On the basis of carrying out stage goals, the degree of market-orientation and free competition will be further promoted, finally perpendicularly divided the regional and national electric power market ultimately into four kinds electric power enterprises. It will adopt the similar electric power pool business pattern or two-way contract business pattern, and set up electric power exchange PX concentrating business and the OTC trading with electric power, set up autonomous dispatching system (ISO).(6) The reform of transmitting system (assume that the selling part is separated), it should continue the structural division on the basis of the functional division of transmitting network basically finished. It can demand the state grid company have its business structurally divided under the arrangement of the holding company, setting up the transmitting and distributing company respectively. The transmitting company is in charge of electric power dispatching and the network plan, running and maintenance. It is necessary to form fair dispatching mechanism, with other departments back to market competition.(7) Always in the past, little documents systematic set forth the electric power marketplace delimitation mechanism and theory problem that requires that the regional electric power marketplace is a multiple echelons electric power market system foundation. Making use of the Cournot two-stage game model, it analyzes the connotation of the different level electric power marketplace. This sets forth the delimitation mechanism of the electric power marketplace and the theory of the regional electric power marketplace as the foundation of the multiple echelons electric power market system.更多还原